Evan Psarras previews Round 21 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
The Storm were uncharacteristically complacent against the Sea Eagles last week with 16 errors and a very low 67% completion rate. The 18-16 loss ended their 6-game win streak, and this game marks the beginning of a tough run home where they play the Broncos (twice), Panthers, Bulldogs and the Roosters a second time. Asofa-Solomona will serve a suspension for an elbow and Wishart replaces Munster who has been given time off for his father’s funeral. The Roosters were off the pace in a loss to the Sharks forcing Trent Robinson to make changes. Sandon Smith replaces Townsend with Wong making a timely return to cover Radley (concussion).
Head To Head
This has not been an enjoyable matchup for the tricolours in recent years. The Storm have won 6 in a row in this series which includes three wins over the Roosters in each of the last two years – including finals. Dating further back they have won and covered the line in the last 5 matches as the away team and have won 17 of the last 21 battles overall when installed as the betting favourite. Jahrome Hughres scored a hat-trick the last time these two teams met and has 5 in his last 5 appearances against the Roosters. Daniel Tupou has been a rare shining light for the chooks with 5 tries in his last 6 games against the Storm.
Stats That Matter
The Roosters could not have picked a worse time to run into the Storm. The Storm are an incredible 19-0 in their last 19 games following a loss with the Over hitting in 7 of the last 10. There have been 60+ total match points in all but three of those games with the Storm averaging more than 40ppg across those matches. That trend could continue as the Over has hit in each of the Roosters last 7 home games and 77% of their home games played in the last year. The Roosters have won only 3 of their previous 11 as the betting underdog but like the Storm, do perform well in this spot. They have won 9 of their last 12 following a loss with a 67% strike rate at the line in those games.
Prediction
There is no need to second guess the best bet in this one. This is the ideal time to back the Storm to cover the line and the fact that they face a capable opponent on the road means that the line is barely more than a single converted try. The Roosters have conceded 24+ points in each of their last three games, and it has been 12 meetings since they reached 20+ points against the Storm. Backing the Storm with confidence.
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -3.5 ($1.90)
Value: Storm 41 Points or More ($8.75)
Same Game Multi: Hughes Anytime Try, Tupou Anytime Try, Storm WIN ($9.05)
Shane Flanagan was livid following the loss to the Bulldogs following multiple refereeing blunders that cost his side two points. Just the on change for the Red V’s trip to Townsville with Mat Feagai replacing the injured Sione Fainu. The Cowboys made a mini comeback with three converted tries in less than 10 minutes midway through the second half against the Dolphins but were outscored 43-6 in the rest of the match. Taulagi had two tries in the loss but has been ruled out (hamstring) which will see Thomas Duffy come into the halve while Purdue reverts to the centres.
Head To Head
It has been all Cowboys in this series with the Queensland side posting a 5-0 record both straight up and at the line in the last 5 meetings. An average winning margin of 19.8 points across those games suggests that the Dragons have a lot of ground to make up. It also means that several Cowboys players have got their name on the score sheet. Drinkwater has 4 in his last 4 appearances against his former club while Dearden has 5 tries in his 6 career games against the Dragons. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes hosted by the Cowboys with 60+ total match points in 3 of the last 5 encounters overall.
Stats That Matter
The Cowboys have lost their last three games at home but have won 6 of their last 8 when installed as a home favourite. Defence has been their biggest problem with 32.5ppg allowed across their last 10 games. It opens the door for the Dragons to end a 4-game losing streak away from home, but they have been competitive having covered the line in 5 of their previous 7 as an away underdog. The Over has hit in 67% of Cowboys games after a loss in the last year and 64% of home games in the same period. Tyrell Sloan has scored at least once in three straight games for the Dragons and is the best option in all try scorer markets.
Prediction
Both teams have a 1-5 record in their last 6 games but there has been a distinct difference between the two and it relates to effort. The Dragons have fought extremely hard for longer periods and have shown a certain level of resilience in defence. On the other hand, the Cowboys have shown that they can score points at will but have left gaping holes in their defensive line. There will be points galore in this contest and with the Cowboys susceptible in defence, the Dragons will be able to go toe-to-toe with them.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Tyrell Sloan 1st Try Scorer ($8.25)
Same Game Multi: Dragons plus, Sloan Anytime Try, Drinkwater Anytime Try ($6.89)
The Origin period has traditionally been a difficult one for the Broncos to navigate but they have won their last 5 matches, and the bye last week has provided their squad with time to heal. The trio of Haas, Jensen and Arthars have all been named to return making this the strongest line-up they have rolled out this season. Mixed news for the Eels with Iongi sidelined with a hand injury but star halfback Mitchell Moses is back as is Will Penisini after serving his suspension.
Head To Head
The Broncos did the double over the Eels last year (30-14 and 30-24) and have won the last four meetings. Surprisingly, they have not faced off at Suncorp Stadium since 2022 with the Eels taking the points in the last three clashes at this ground. The Over has hit in the last three meetings hosted by the Broncos with their wingers crossing at will. The best value option is Ezra Mam as he has crossed for a try in each of his last three appearances against the Eels.
Stats That Matter
Underperforming relative to market expectation had become the Broncos specialty in the last year but they are on the way to rectifying that having covered the line in each of their last 5 games. In contrast, the Eels faded late against the Raiders last week and are consequently 0-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 away games. The Broncos biggest improvement in recent weeks has been in defence where they have held their opponents to 14.7ppg. The Over has hit in 8 of the Broncos last 11 home games and a high scoring game is great news for the neutrals. Reece Walsh has scored at least once in his last 4 when facing teams lower on the ladder while Zac Lomax is somewhat of a Friday night specialist having crossed for at least one try in his last 6 Friday games.
Prediction
The return of Mitchell Moses should not be underestimated. His kicking game is elite and will provide the Eels with an outlet out of their own end and a tool necessary to help build pressure. It is also great news for their best aerial threat (Zac Lomax) which in turn is a positive for a play on the Overs. The Broncos may have won their last 5 but there has still been an element of inconsistency in their performances. Have them winning here but will not be surprised if the Eels join them in scoring 20+ points in a losing effort.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Eels 21-30 Points ($3.60)
Same Game Multi: Reece Walsh Anytime Try, Karapani Anytime Try, Lomax Anytime Try ($5.96)
They may not have deserved it but the Warriors scored a dramatic win on the stroke of full time against the Knights and the victory has helped them maintain 4th place on the ladder and a 4-point gap back to the Broncos. It was a case of despair for the Titans as they went down to an Adam Douehi field goal in a battle against the Tigers at Leichhardt Oval. The visitors will be without Tino Fa’asuamaelaui and David Fifita while the Warriors welcome back Nicol-Klokstad. Taine Tuaupiki can consider himself unlucky to miss out on a spot in the 17 but could be a late inclusion.
Head To Head
Despite finishing 13th, 14th and 14th in the last three years, the Titans have found a way to compile a great record against the Warriors. They have won 5 of the last 6 meetings and have consistently found a way to pile the points on against them. The Titans have averaged 33.67ppg across those matches including a 66-6 win in their most recent clash. There have been 50+ total match points in 3 of the last 4 clashes and among the notable try scorers is AJ Brimson with 5 career tries in his 7 appearances against the Wahs.
Stats That Matter
A 3-3 record in their last 6 as a home record suggests that this could be a danger game for the Warriors but there can be no excuses against the team that occupies the bottom spot on the ladder. The Titans have lost their last four away games and have won only 25% of games as an away underdog in the last year. Not even Des Hasler has been able to address their defensive deficiencies with the Titans having allowed 20+ points in 11 of their previous 12 games. Last week was the third time that Adam Pompey scored the opening try this season, yet he is still in the double digit range to replicate that here and close to the $3 for anytime try!
Prediction
Without Tino leasing their pack and coming off a heartbreaking loss, it is hard to see the Titans having the mental strength required to fight for 80 minutes. The Warriors win over the Knights last week was another example of a team that is willing to stay in the grind until the final second of every game. That level of consistency is the type of footy that the Titans have had trouble with this season. Moreover, the Warriors were embarrassed by the Titans in their most recent clash and will be out for revenge. Taking them to cover the line and post a big win.
Tips
Best Bet: Warriors -11.5 ($1.90)
Value: Adam Pompey 1st Try Scorer ($14)
Same Game Multi: Warriors WIN, Pompey Anytime Try, AJ Brimson Anytime Try ($9.41)
Dylan Edwards starred in the absence of Cleary and Yeo, guiding the Panthers to a 6th consecutive win. It will be a case of all hands on deck for the Panthers for what seemingly feels like the first time this season and that has the entire competition on notice. The Tigers posted a dramatic win over the Titans last week with their only change being Izaak Tu’itupou taking over Charlie Staines on one of the wings.
Head To Head
The Panthers have taken this game to Bathurst in recent seasons and with CommBank Stadium their temporary home for 2025, the two teams have faced off at the foot of the mountain only once in more than 5 years. That has created a more even playing field for the Tigers, who despite losing 4 of the last 5 meetings, have managed to keep scores closer than expected. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by 4 or fewer points and low scoring matches have contributed to small margins of victory. The Under is 11-0 in the last 11 meetings with an average of 29.8 total match points across those games.
Stats That Matter
Defence has been the one element of the game that the Panthers have been able to hang their hat on during their four premierships and it is back it is also the reason for their resurgence in the second half of this season. They have held teams to 11.3ppg during their 6 game win streak with the Under holding on in each of their last 7 games. The only thing working against this is that the Over has hit in each of the Tigers last 8 games following a win. They have covered the line in only 3 of those games and are 1-8 at the line in their last 9 away games when facing a team on a winning streak.
Prediction
Credit to the Tigers for squeezing out a win last week but they won’t be given any second chances by the Panthers. The Premiers get a rest advantage which is significant – especially when you consider that the Tigers were in an intense 80-minute battle. The Panthers defence has been impenetrable in the last month, and they have held the Tigers to 12.8ppg across the last five meetings. Jenkins has 9 tries in his last 9 appearances for the Panthers and let’s not forget our man Skelton who has crossed for a try in his last two.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.83)
Value: To Score 10 – Only Penrith to Score 10+ points ($4.20)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Jenkins Anytime Try, Skelton Anytime Try ($4.26)
Souths cannot catch a break this season with Koloamatangi the latest casualty. He suffered a season ending ankle injury in the 30-10 loss against the Panthers with the duo of Mamouzelos and Humphreys also unavailable for this one (concussion). In contrast, the Sharks have found their mojo in attack – largely thanks to the dummy half running of Blayke Brailey. Nikora will also miss out due to concussion, but the Sharks will get Ramien back. Don’t forget that this one will take place at Gosford on the Central Coast.
Head To Head
The Rabbitohs compiled a 9-3 record over a 10-year span in this series, but the last four meetings have all been won by the Sharks. Not only have they won the last four clashes, but they have won all those games by a double-digit margin. The Sharks have covered the line in 6 of the last 8 meetings as the betting favourite and three in a row as the away team. The Under has held on in the last two clashes and 4 of the last 6 hosted by the Rabbitohs with an average of 36.3 total match points in those games.
Stats That Matter
A run of 7 consecutive losses reveals the Rabbitohs struggles but as pointed out by coach Wayne Bennett, their effort levels are still there. The concern with that is that they have failed to cover the line in their last three games and how bad things will get if their effort levels drop off. The Sharks are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games but this isn’t exactly a Bunnies home game. The Over has hit in the Sharks last four games at Polytec Stadium and that trend could continue as the man under the microscope (Nicho Hynes) is gaining confidence after scoring 4 tries across his last 4 games.
Prediction
You can be forgiven for wondering where this Blayke Brailey running game came from, but it is working wonders. The Sharks are carving teams up through the middle, but they may encounter a hurdle here in the way of referee Belinda Sharpe. In her four games in charge this year there has been an average of 38.0 total match points with a season high of 44 total match points – all under the total that has been set for this one. We are likely to witness a slower ruck and that will mean both teams will have to shift the ball wide to score points. The Rabbitohs simply do not have enough troops to keep it close.
Tips
Best Bet: Sharks -13.5 ($1.90)
Value: Nicho Hynes Anytime Try ($3.30)
Same Game Multi: Sharks WIN, Rabbitohs Under 15.5 points, Mulitalo Anytime Try ($3.08)
Their respective Round 20 matches were a good example of why these two teams are on opposite ends of the ladder. The Raiders trailed the Eels at half time but stuck to their strengths and pulled clear with three tries in the final 10 minutes. In contrast, the Knights led for the bulk of the contest but conceded a try right on the stroke of full time. Bouncing back from that gut-wrenching loss will not be easy but the same starting 13 have been handed the task. Just the one change for the Raiders with Sasagi sliding into the centres to cover Seb Kris (concussion).
Head To Head
They have split the last 8 meetings (4-4) with the Raiders coming away with a 22-18 win a month ago at McDonald Jones Stadium. Jed Stuart and Sasagi were among the try scorers with the latter getting a starting role in the centres this week. There have been some close battles between them with 5 of the last 8 meetings being decided by 6 or fewer points. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 clashes hosted by the Raiders. Weekes has scored a try in each of his last two appearances against the Knights and is among the best try scorer options.
Stats That Matter
The Green Machine have won 8 in a row overall and have been dominant at home. They have won their last 6 as a home favourite and have successfully covered the line in 5 of those games. The Over has hit in their previous 6 home games but that streak could come to an end as the Knights are the ultimate Unders team in 2025. The Under has held in in the Knights last 5 games and is 8-0 in their last 8 away games. They have struggled to convert opportunities all season long but their efforts in defence have translated to a very low average of 34.6 total match points.
Prediction
We will continue to back the Unders in Knights games no matter who they are playing. They have averaged a very mediocre 14.8ppg this season and will not be scoring more than two tries in this one. Simi Sasagi has shown that he can find the try line when given game time and a spot in the centres means more ball in dangerous positions. Like the Raiders to post a comfortable win and will be taking the trio of Sasagi, Stuart and Weekes in the same game multi.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Simi Sasagi Anytime Try ($3.25)
Same Game Multi: Jed Stuart Anytime Try, Weekes Anytime Try, Sasagi Anytime Try ($13.07)
We wrap up Round 21 with a game that could have serious finals implications. The Sea Eagles stunned the Storm 18-16 in Melbourne last week to make it three wins in a row and are gaining momentum at the right time. The Bulldogs won by the same margin (20-18) with some Galvin heroics in the dying stages helping them to a win over the Dragons. Bronson Xerri is back for the Bulldogs, but the Sea Eagles get a big in of their own with dangerous edge back-rower Hamole Olakau’atu making his comeback from a shoulder injury.
Head To Head
Their most recent meeting in Week 1 of the NRL finals last season with the Eagles overcoming a 22-12 deficit midway through the second half to win 24-22. It was the Sea Eagles fourth consecutive win over the Bulldogs, and they improved to 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 clashes and has hit in 8 of the last 11 battles hosted by the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the line in the last 6 meetings as the home team in this series with a 1-4 line record in the previous 5 when installed as a home favourite.
Stats That Matter
It has been more than three years since the Sea Eagles won 4 in a row and they have covered the line in only 2 of their last 12 following a win. They have however compiled an impressive record in this spot with a 5-2 record both straight up and at the line in their last 7 as an away underdog. In comparison, the Bulldogs have won 13 of their previous 17 on the back of a win but the most interesting statistics relate to the total. The Under is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 games and 6-0 in the Bulldogs last 6 with an average of only 32.7 total match points across those 6 games. There are two players in particular that the Bulldogs will be trying to contain – Tom Trbojevic and Garrick. Trbojevic has scored at least one try in 7 of his last 8 games against the Bulldogs while Garrick has crossed for one or more in 4 of his last 5 appearances in this series.
Prediction
This one has a real finals feel about it. The Bulldogs have decided to shift this game to Allianz Stadium as a tribute to their win over the Sea Eagles in the 1995 Grand Final. The combination of this and a huge crowd means a high level of intensity for the entire game. Ashley Klein is unlikely to blow as many penalties turning this one into an immense defensive battle. That will suit the Bulldogs but as we have seen in recent weeks, the Eagles are up for the fight. This could turn into a field goal battle late so we will be backing both teams to win by exactly one point.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Bulldogs by 1 ($17) and Sea Eagles by 1 ($17)
Same Game Multi: Tri 1-12 – Either Team By Less Than 12.5, Garrick Anytime Try, Under 51.5 points ($4.52)