Evan Psarras previews Round 20 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
With only 8 points separating 5th and 16th spots on the NRL ladder, things can change dramatically in a matter of weeks. A loss to the Sharks has seen the Dolphins fall to 10th while the Cowboys need a minor miracle if they are to play finals footy following losses in 5 of their last 6. Tabuai-Fidow returns for the Dolphins, but they will have to overcome the losses of Nicholls (concussion) and Finefeuiaki (thumb). The visitors will be without McLean and have made a notable change in the backline with Paulo replacing Derby.
Head To Head
The Dolphins took a 3-2 lead in the H2H with a crushing 58-4 win in their most recent clash in Round 15. Jack Bostock scored 4 tries while Averillo crossed for a second consecutive game against the Cowboys. Surprisingly, the away team has won all five meetings but the big trend in this series is points. The Over is 4-1 in their five clashes with 54+ total match points in each of the last three meetings and an average of 55.0 total match points across their five battles. Isaako leads the way with 8 tries in this series and should be included in all multis.
Stats That Matter
The Cowboys only victory in their last 6 games came against the bottom-placed Titans and they have won only 2 of their last 7 games as an away underdog. In comparison, the Dolphins have won 4 of their last 6 home games but more importantly, are 3-0 in their last 3 games following a loss. The Over is 4-0 in the Cowboys last 4 road games and a large part of that has to do with their lack of defence. They conceded 33.5ppg across those fixtures and have allowed more points than any other team this season. Murray Taulagi has scored at least once in 6 consecutive away games and is the best option for the visitors.
Prediction
In their battle against the Sharks last week the Dolphins were completely disjointed in the first half. Back on home soil and against one of the worst defensive sides in the competition we should see their attack flourish. The return of Tabuai-Fidow at fullback is another positive and with the Cowboys having scored the opening try in only 3 of their last 10 matches, they will be forced to chase the game which will create an open contest. Peter Gough refereed six games from Round 20 onwards last season and there was an average of 61.7 total match points in those games. It will rain points act Suncorp Stadium.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 61 Points or More ($4.50)
Same Game Multi: Isaako Anytime Try, Taulagi Anytime Try, Farnworth Anytime Try ($7.27)
A polished performance from Nicho Hynes helped the Sharks to a 24-12 win over the Dolphins in Round 19 and temporarily saw them back in the top 8. It was short-lived as the Roosters toppled the Dragons less than 24 hours later to leapfrog them on the ladder. The Sharks have the benefit of naming an unchanged side but the same does not apply for the visitors with Chad Townsend recalled to the side to replace injured five-eighth Hugo Savala.
Head To Head
In their most recent clash in Round 12, the Sharks opened as overwhelming favourites with the tricolours missing all their Origin players. What eventuated was the Sharks worst performance of the season with the Roosters winning 42-16. The Roosters have won 9 of the last 11 meetings and have lost just once in the last 3 clashes as an away underdog in this series. The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 encounters between these two but there has been an average of only 37.5 total match points in their last 6 clashes at this ground. Mulitalo has gone four games without a try but that streak could end as he has scored at least once in his last five appearances against the Roosters.
Stats That Matter
Both teams have won less than 50% of games following a win in the last year and that lack of consistency is why they are both battling for a spot in the eight. The Roosters have covered the line in only 5 of their previous 15 games on the back of a win with the Over hitting in 64% of those games. A 2-5 record as an away underdog in the last 12 months is below par and the Sharks have the benefit of having won 8 of their last 11 as a home favourite (7-4 at the line). Daniel Tupou has been in great form with 7 tries in his last 6 games and has 13 career tries in his 15 appearances against the Sharks.
Prediction
Do not like the idea of trusting the Sharks in this spot. They have allowed 26+ points in each of their last 3 games following a win and were one put down away from losing last week. Despite dominating position for the first hour, the Dolphins scored two tries in five minutes and would have taken the lead if Marshall-King focused on grounding the ball rather than thinking about a post-try celebration. Sam Walker was good in his return and with 80 minutes under his belt should improve further. Taking the Roosters with the start.
Tips
Best Bet: Roosters +2.5 ($1.90)
Value: Daniel Tupou 2 or more Tries ($4.75)
Same Game Multi: Tupou Anytime Try, Mulitalo Anytime Try, Roosters +12.5 ($4.58)
The Panthers were without the trio of To’o, Edwards and Martin last week not to mention Nathan Cleary starting on the bench. It all worked out in a 32-10 win over the Eels and coach Ivan Cleary has flipped the rotation this time around. To’o and Edwards return with Nathan Cleary and Yeo to be rested. It creates a window of opportunity for the Rabbitohs ending a 6-game losing streak. There is more good news for the visitors with Latrell Mitchell and Euan Aitken being named with Wighton to continue in the halves in Cody Walker’s absence (calf).
Head To Head
The Rabbitohs stunned the Panthers in Round 4 with an upset 28-18 win. They led 28-0 at half time but it is worth noting that the duo of Cleary and Edwards were absent for the premiers. The Panthers have won 7 of the last 9 meetings and 5 in a row as the home team. They have covered the line in the previous four clashes when listed as the home team and the Under is a notable 4-1 across their last 5 clashes with an average of 42.0 total match points in those games. Schneider has had great success in this series with a try in each of his last three games against the Rabbitohs and is over the odds to continue his unexpected try scoring streak.
Stats That Matter
We have already touched on the low scoring nature of their recent clashes and there is a significant additional push based on their recent form. The Under is 6-0 in the Panthers last 6 home games and 10-2 in Rabbitohs away games played in the last year. During their 5-game win streak the Panthers have held opposing teams to 11.6ppg – the type of defence that has seen them win four straight premierships. The Bunnies need to address their poor away form as they have won only 1 of their last 9 as a road underdog and have covered the line in only 2 of those games.
Prediction
The Under in his game is one of the best bets of the round. The Panthers are back to their absolute best defensively and the absence of Cleary and Yeo is certain to have a negative impact on their attack. As has been the case in the last month, I expect the Panthers to focus on completing their sets and winning the territorial battle which will result in the visitors’ succumbing to fatigue midway through the second half. The Panthers line speed in defence and the fact that they will pin the Rabbitohs in their own half will also hinder the impact of Latrell Mitchell.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Schneider Anytime Try ($6.00)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Rabbitohs Under 17.5 points, Jenkins Anytime Try ($3.42)
The Raiders extended their win streak to 7 games with a narrow win over the Dragons in Round 18 and the bye last week will have freshened them up for the run home. With the representative duo of Hudson Young and Josh Papalii returning to the starting side, it is a case of all hands on deck for the league leaders. The Eels ran out of puff in the second half against the Panthers last week with coach Jason Ryles making his intentions clear with respect to developing youth for the rest of the season. Joash Papalii will again start a five-eighth with Dylan Brown dropped and Charlie Guymer locking down one of the spots on the edge.
Head To Head
This series is becoming a very favourable one for the Raiders. They have won and covered the line in the last 3 meetings and in Round 6 earlier this season dismantled the Eels 50-12. They had six different try scorers with Hudson Young grabbing a double. He is one of three players (Kris and Timoko) that have now scored at least once in three consecutive games against the Eels. The Raiders have scored 117 points across the last three meetings (39ppg) and have won 9 of the last 10 when installed as a home favourite in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
Winning on the road has been a tough ask for the Eels who are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 as the visiting team. They must now contend with a Raiders side that has been dominant in this spot. The Raiders have won their last 5 games as a home favourite and have been successful at the line in 8 of their 11 home games played in the last year. The Over is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 home games and their attack has been close to unstoppable in the nation’s capital. They have scored 20+ points in all 8 home games thus far with an average of 30ppg scored in those games. Ethan Strange has 4 tries in his last 5 games for the home side and if the visitors are to make an impact it will likely be Zac Lomax who has scored a try in each of his last two.
Prediction
Last time these two teams met it was a fill-up for followers with the best bet, value bet and multi all saluting. The Raiders scored 41+ points ($7.25) and the trio of try scorers (Timoko, Kris and Young) earned us a $20.57 multi win. With the Raiders becoming one of the dominant forces in the competition since we will not be getting the same odds but they the same plays are just as good this time around.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Raiders 41 points or more ($4.40)
Same Game Multi: Young Anytime Try, Timoko Anytime Try, Kris Anytime Try ($16.79)
Defence was the name of the game in the Bulldogs gritty 12-8 win over the Cowboys with no points being scored in the second half. The same cannot be said about the Dragons end-to-end battle against the Roosters which ended in a 31-24 win for the tricolours. The big news heading into this one is Lachlan Galvin being named to start in the halves alongside Burton with Sexton dropped altogether. Shane Flanagan has named the same 17 but there may be some late changes with Mathew Feagai named on the extended bench.
Head To Head
It has been all blue and white in the last two years with the Bulldogs winning the last four encounters in this series. They have averaged 29.5ppg across those matches with an average winning margin of 15.0 points. The Bulldogs have won 11 consecutive meetings as the betting favourite and Matt Burton could be a close watch as he has scored 3 tries in his last 3 appearances against the Dragons. The Dragons have struggled when facing the Bulldogs at Accor Stadium and have managed to score more than 20 points only once in the last 10 battles between them at this ground.
Stats That Matter
The insertion of Galvin into the starting side comes as the Bulldogs go in search of points. The Under is 5-0 in their last 5 with an average of only 31.6 total match points across those games. Their defence has been incredible holding teams to 13.6ppg in that stretch but they have managed only 18ppg themselves. They get a great opportunity to improve their attack as the Dragons have allowed 33ppg in their last 5 with the Over hitting in all five of those games and 6 in a row as the away team. The Dragons have covered the line in 4 of their last 6 as a road underdog and it is worth noting that both teams have scored 20+ points in each of their last 3 games.
Prediction
If the Dragons are to be competitive in this game, they will need to score 24+ points. Their defence has been frail to say the least and the Bulldogs will see this as an excellent opportunity to pile on the points. The Dragons have conceded a heap of tries to wingers in recent weeks, specifically 10 in their last 5 games with three players (Tupou, Isaako and Sione Katoa) scoring doubles. The Bulldogs will look to get the ball into Galvin’s hands as much as possible which makes Kiraz a special to get on the score sheet.
Tips
Best Bet: Bulldogs WIN/Over 44.5 points ($2.45)
Value: Kiraz To Score 2 or More Tries ($3.80)
Same Game Multi: Kiraz Anytime Try, Rinakama Anytime Try, Galvin Anytime Try ($11.37)
No Munster, no Papenhuyzen, no problem for the Storm who made it 6 in a row with a 32-14 win over the Knights. It was a similar scoreline for the Eagles in a 30-12 victory over the Rabbitohs in their most recent game making it back-to-back wins for just the second time this season. The home side have named Munster and Coates but the calf of Ryan Papenhuyzen will need at least another week leaving Meaney to continue at fullback. No changes for the Sea Eagles with Tom Trbojevic to continue in the centres.
Head To Head
There is no love lost between these two dating back to their battles in consecutive Grand Finals (2007/08). The Sea Eagles have held their own with wins in 3 of the last 5 meetings but all those wins have come on the northern beaches. The Storm have won and covered the line in the last four clashes as the home team and dating further back have won 8 of the last 11 meetings overall. The Under has held on in 7 of the last 10 hosted by the Storm with no more than 36 total match points scored in their last four encounters played at AAMI Park.
Stats That Matter
The Storm are a force to be reckoned with when playing at AAMI Park. They have won 10 of their previous 12 games as a home favourite with a 67% success rate at the line in those games. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games and have been victorious in only 4 of their last 13 games following a win. A 3-10 line record in those games highlights their struggles in this spot and slowing down the Storm attack will be near impossible as they have averaged 40.57ppg in their 7 games played at AAMI Park this season.
Prediction
Not buying into the Sea Eagles wins over the Tigers and Rabbitohs. They have a poor record on the back of a win and the Storm have been relentless at AAMI Park this season. When the Eagles get tired they tend to get carved up through the middle. This is great news for the duo of Grant and Hughes. Grant has scored a try in three consecutive home games when facing a team on a win streak while Hughes has 4 tries in his last 3 games at this ground. Going for value in the multi with the Storm to run riot!
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -9.5 ($1.90)
Value Harry Grant Anytime Try ($4.10)
Same Game Multi: Harry Grant Anytime Try, Hughes Anytime Try, Loiero Anytime Try ($83.50)
The club and players have thrown their support behind Benji Marshall following a poor performance last week and there can be no excuses when they host a Titans side that has lost 11 of its last 13 to be dead last on the ladder. Taylan May makes his return to the NRL with Adam Doueihi shifting to lock. Nothing to note for the visitors with captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui back into the starting side after coming off the bench following the Origin decided last week.
Head To Head
The Tigers were 18-10 winners in their only clash last season which took place at this very ground. That result ended the Titans 5-game win streak in this series and was a step in the right direction for the home team. The concern for the Tigers is that they are 2-7 at the line in the last 9 home games in this series and have successfully covered only 1 of the last 5 as a home favourite. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings but we still have multiple try scoring options. AJ Brimson has at least one try in 4 of his last 4 against the Tigers while Adam Doueihi has scored a try in his last four appearances in this series.
Stats That Matter
Looking for statistics to support a Titans upset is hard work. They are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games and have covered the line in only 29% of games as the outsider in the last year. Similarly, it is hard to trust the Tigers as they have lost their last 3 as a home favourite. The Under has held on in 67% of Tigers games following a loss in the last year and each of their last three home games prior to this. The Leichhardt Oval faithful have done their bit with the Tigers winning 6 of their last 8 at their traditional home. An average of 55.25 total match points in those games suggests there will be plenty of points.
Prediction
It does not get much better than Sunday afternoon footy at Leichhardt Oval. It has been a winning formula for the Tigers with the fans treated to a never-ending flow of tries in those games. There has been quality from the Tigers in patches, but their issue is putting together consistent performances for longer periods. The home crowd should give them the boost required in the early stages and the Titans haven’t shown much resilience at all this season. Tigers to cover the line in a high scoring contest.
Best Bet: Tigers -5.5 ($1.90)
Value: Doueihi Anytime Try ($5.25)
Same Game Multi: Skelton Anytime Try, Campbell Anytime Try, AJ Brimson Anytime Try ($17.85)
The Warriors got their season back on track with a 34-14 win over the Tigers to solidify their place in the top 4 and maintain a four-point gap back to the Broncos in 5th. In contrast, it has been a week from hell for the Knights. They were well beaten by the Storm 32-14 and news of coach Adam O’Brien being moved on at the end of the year was followed by reports that Kalyn Ponga may also be leaving the club. On the field, Gagai will captain the side from fullback, but the loss of Dylan Lucas (foot) means Brodie Jones will start. Kur Capewell returns for the visitors but has been forced to play centre with Rocco Berry unavailable (shoulder).
Head To Head
Home ground advantage has been a factor in this series with the home team taking the points on offer in each of the last 6 clashes. The Knights have won and covered the line in the last 4 meetings at McDonald Jones Stadium and going back further have posted a 7-2 line record in the last 9 when listed as the home team. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and we have seen both teams score 20+ points in the same game in only 1 of the last 11 battles between the pair.
Stats That Matter
The Under is 3-0 in the Knights last 3 home games (all losses) and 4-0 in their last 4 overall. Of their 12 home games in the last year, the Under has a 75% strike rate and this has been helped by their struggles in attack. They have scored the fewest points of any team in the NRL this season and this has translated to an average of 34.5 total match points in their games this season. Dom Young could be a rare shining light for the Knights as he has scored at least one try in 8 of his last 9 home appearances when facing a team higher than them on the ladder.
Prediction
Dane Gagai showed tremendous effort when shifted to fullback last week, but his effort will not be enough to put points on the board. The Knights three most dangerous players this season have been Sharpe, Ponga and Dylan Lucas. All three are now on the sidelines leaving them with a spine that includes the likes of Hastings, Cogger and Brailey. Tanah Boyd’s kicking game was stellar for the Warriors and if he can deliver on that part of his game and let Harris-Tevita focus on his running game, the Warriors will continue to be dangerous in attack. The Knights will be held to fewer than 20 points and suffer a fourth consecutive loss at home.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.87)
Value: Knights 10 Points or Less ($3.15)
Same Game Multi: Warriors -7.5, Watene Zelezniak Anytime Try, Dom Young Anytime Try ($5.81)