New Zealand v France — Second Test | Tips & Preview

History
After last week’s narrow victory over France, New Zealand now own a dominant 49-1-15 record over France. That amounts to a 75% win rate against Les Bleus, dating back to their first meeting in 1906. The All Blacks have won nine on the bounce on home soil, with France’s last win in Aotearoa coming in 2009. On the whole, the ABs have a 27-5 record over the visitors in games played in NZ, as well as a 7-0 record in games played in Wellington.

Form
New Zealand eked out a victory over France in the opening Test of the series, prevailing 31-27 in Dunedin last Saturday. It was a highly entertaining contest which saw the All Blacks start slow, with the visitors scoring the first 10 points of the game. The ABs kicked into life shortly afterwards, leading to Will Jordan scoring the first of his two tries, while Tupou Vaa’i and Jordie Barrett also crashed over before the break to give the hosts a comfortable 21-13 margin. They went on to lead for the rest of the game, but it wasn’t all comfortable on the scoreboard, as France scored minutes into the second half and were within one score of the lead for much of the stanza. That said, a pair of disallowed tries following TMO interventions made the score more favourable towards France, given the ABs’ general control in the second 40. Scott Robertson’s men enjoyed 62% territory and possession and were comfortable at set piece, with their overruled tries and some other basic errors leading to a tighter scoreline than the game warranted.

For Les Bleus, they will feel like they were well and truly in the game. Trailing by less than five points for the final 30 minutes of play, they were only a try away from hitting the lead and perhaps recording a famous victory with their undermanned team, but that final quarter of play proved to be much more intense and gritty than the opening hour, and that played into the ABs’ favour. Les Tricolores were happy to give the ball some air and attack from anywhere on the park and their set piece was solid all night long, but they were outworked at the breakdown and only made five entries into New Zealand’s 22, giving themselves few genuine try-scoring opportunities.

Teams
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Fletcher Newell, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 5 Fabian Holland, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 7 Ardie Savea, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Billy Proctor, 14 Rieko Ioane, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Damian McKenzie.

France: 1 Baptiste Erdocio, 2 Gaëtan Barlot, 3 Georges-Henri Colombe, 4 Joshua Brennan, 5 Matthias Halagahu, 6 Pierre Bochaton, 7 Jacobus Van Tonder, 8 Esteban Abadie, 9 Nolann Le Garrec, 10 Joris Segonds, 11 Émilien Gailleton, 12 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 13 Nicolas Depoortère, 14 Théo Attissogbe, 15 Léo Barré. Reserves: 16 Pierre Bourgarit, 17 Paul Mallez, 18 Régis Montagne, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Cameron Woki, 21 Bastien Vergnes-Taillefer, 22 Thibault Daubagna, 23 Antoine Hastoy.

Scott Robertson has been forced into a couple of changes due to injuries picked up in the first Test, with Scott Barrett and Sevu Reece coming out of the team with a calf injury and a concussion, respectively. That sees Patrick Tuipulotu start at lock and Caleb Clarke come into the team on the left wing, as Rieko Ioane shifts to the right. Timoci Tavatavanawai is in line to debut off the bench.

With players from Top 14 finalists Toulouse and Bordeaux having arrived in Aotearoa this week, Fabien Galthie has rung in the changes to see five of the finalists feature in the 23. Among the changes, last week’s captain Gael Fickou drops out of the team for Nicolas Depoortère, with the halves pairing of Nolann Le Garrec and Joris Segonds being the only two backs to keep their positions from last week. Likewise in the pack, only hooker Gaetan Barlot has retained his spot, while also taking over captaincy.

The Verdict
After a pulsating opener, these teams meet again in Wellington on Saturday. It is a bit of a stretch to refer to this France team as the “same team”, given the sweeping changes made by Galthie, rotating most of his starting lineup. That’s in stark contrast to a fairly stable ABs lineup, and given their ascendency in the second half last week, including the two disallowed tries, it’s fair to say that they have the momentum heading into the Wellington showdown. The All Blacks will be all the better for getting their first hit-out of the season under their belts and with a France team that have yet to gel in front of them, this game will go the way of the hosts.

The Prediction
New Zealand by 23

Best
New Zealand -18.5 ($1.90)

Value
New Zealand 21-30 ($3.70)