See below for our expert New Zealand v France tips and best bets for the first Test this Saturday!
History
New Zealand have a 75% win rate against France in the history of international rugby, dating back to their first showdown in 1906. The All Blacks’ 48-1-15 record gives off a dominant reading, but France have flipped the script in recent years, having won the past three encounters. However, they were all held in Paris, with the All Blacks having won nine straight games against Les Bleus in Aotearoa. There have only been two encounters between the teams in Dunedin — France won the first at Carisbrook in 2009 before the All Blacks got their revenge at Forsyth Barr Stadium when they met again nine years later.
Form
New Zealand play their first international of the year on Saturday, meaning there is little to go off form-wise, but a 4-1 record in their northern tour last October – November will give them confidence heading into this clash. However, the one loss in that run was against France, as they gave up a 17-10 halftime lead to lose 29-30.
France emerged victorious in the 2025 Six Nations, ending their 2024/25 season on a high. It was a tense finish, as their shock loss to England in the second round almost cost them the title, but their perfect record in their four other games saw them come out on top of the standings by one point. However, this is a very different France team from that squad, due to the Top 14 final having yet to be played and a policy around resting the key players from the club season.
Teams
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Fletcher Newell, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Fabian Holland, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 7 Ardie Savea, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Billy Proctor, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Damian McKenzie.
France: 1 Giorgi Beria, 2 Gaetan Barlot, 3 Rabah Slimani, 4 Hugo Auradou, 5 Tyler Duguid, 6 Alexandre Fischer, 7 Killian Tixeront, 8 Mickael Guillard, 9 Nolann Le Garrec, 10 Joris Segonds, 11 Gabin Villiere, 12 Gael Fickou, 13 Emilien Gailleton, 14 Tom Spring, 15 Theo Attissogbe. Reserves: 16 Pierre Bourgarit, 17 Paul Mallez, 18 Regis Montagne, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Cameron Woki, 21 Jacobus van Tonder, 22 Baptiste Jauneau, 23 Antoine Hastoy.
Scott Robertson has named some surprise inclusions in his starting team, including debutants Fabian Holland and Christian Lio-Willie being named in the pack at a ground that is very familiar to them both. Some other shocks come at blindside, where Tupou Vaa’i gets the nod, and in the #14 jersey, where Rieko Ioane starts his first international game on the wing since October 2021. Ollie Norris and Du’Plessis Kirifi are also in line for their All Blacks debuts off the bench.
It’s a severely undermanned 23 that has been named by Fabien Galthie, with five debutants in the run-on XV and another three on the bench. Captain Gael Fickou is a familiar name in the midfield and usual lock Mickael Guillard has been named at No.8 in what is an otherwise second-string outfit. Promising youngsters Nolann le Garrec, Joris Segonds and Emilien Gailleton all get their chance to shine in the backs, while Gabin Villiere will be hoping to win back some merit on the wing, having fallen out of favour in the national team in recent seasons.
The Verdict
There are a lot of new factors at play in the first Test of the series on Saturday, including a very fresh French 23 and a revamped All Blacks starting XV. That brings plenty of intrigue to the market, including how this new-look New Zealand loose-forward trio stacks up against an equally large and imposing French back row, and Ioane’s return to the wing will also draw a lot of attention. That said, this is a relatively experienced ABs team compared to the 23 that the visitors are rolling out and, at home in what will be good conditions at Forsyth Barr, we can expect a big win from the ABs.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 28
Best
New Zealand -20.5 ($1.90)
Value
New Zealand 21-30 ($3.50)