The Blues ended a four-game skid with a narrow win over the Demons and will look to use the final five games of the season as a building block for 2026. They face a very stern test here as the Hawks got right back in the winner’s circle with a dominant win over the Power. The Hawks have won 12 of their last 17 following a win with a 71% success rate at the line in those games. Meanwhile, the Blues have won only 3 of their last 8 in the same scenario with the Under holding on in 7 of those games. The Hawks have won 10 of the last 11 meetings as the betting favourite but have notably failed to cover the line in the last 4 battles when listed as the home team. The Under is 9-2 in the Blues 11 away games played in the last year and that trend is likely to continue as the Hawks have held their last 5 opponents to an average of 61.8ppg.
The Bulldogs’ struggles against the top 8 teams continued last week away to the Lions. They had 10 fewer scoring shots, but the good news is that they have won 6 of their last 9 following a loss and 4 of their last 5 as an away favourite. The Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 8 as the away team in this series and have successfully covered the line in 4 of the last 5 clashes when installed as an away favourite. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with the Bombers averaging 57.6ppg across those matches. The Bulldogs crushed the Bombers 127-36 earlier this season led by Bailey Dale who had an insane 49 disposals. The Over has hit in 8 of the Bulldogs last 11 away games and there has been an average of 187.4 total points in matches involving them this season. It will rain points at Marvel Stadium.
The Swans improved to 5-1 in their last 6 with a win over the Kangaroos but will need to keep winning to keep their hopes of finals footy alive. The Giants were below their best in a 48-point win over the Bombers and can thank their accuracy and the Bombers inaccuracy in front of goal for the result. They are now 5-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 games but will need to overcome a poor run of results in the ‘Battle of the Bridge’. Not only have the Swans have won the last 5 meetings in this series, but they have posted a 7-0 line record in the last 7 clashes as the away team. The Over has hit in each of the last 5 encounters hosted by the Giants with an average of 179.2 total points across those fixtures.
A 10-point win over the Bulldogs extended the Lions win streak to four games and within striking distance of top spot on the AFL ladder. In contrast, the Suns failed to kick a single goal in the first half of a 61-point loss away to the Crows. The Lions have owned the Suns with wins in 10 of the last 11 meetings including outright victory and success at the line in the last three clashes. Their recent battles have been extremely tactical and defensive with the Under holding on in the last 5 encounters. There has been an average of only 143.8 total match points across those matches with the Under also a noteworthy 5-0 in the Lions last 5 away games leading into this one. In addition to this, the Under has a 70% strike rate in Lions games on the back of a win in the last year.
The Dockers are developing into a genuine title contender. They won a thriller against the Pies and an 8-1 record in their last 9 has them fighting for home ground advantage in the finals. Next up is a battle against the Eagles in the ‘Western Derby’ and there are light years between the two teams at present. The Dockers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings and have an excellent 13-3 record in the last 16 clashes when installed as the favourite. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with the winning team having posted 100+ points in each of the last 5 clashes. The Dockers have won their last 4 home games leading into this and are almost certain to make a fast start as they have scored 27% of their points in the first term – their highest scoring quarter this season. This one could get very ugly for the Eagles.
The Kangaroos put up some resistance against the Swans last week but faded in the final quarter as has been the case for the entire season. The Cats improved to 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss with a comfortable win over the Saints and will view this contest as an excellent opportunity to improve their percentages. Their 200% scoring percentage in the 4th quarter this season makes them one of the best teams in the AFL in the final term which will help them cover the line here. The Cats have won 13 in a row against the Kangaroos and have successfully covered the line in each of the last five clashes. An average winning margin of 69.8 points across those games highlights their dominance and creates the perfect platform for Jeremey Cameron to extend his lead in the chase for Coleman Medal as he has kicked 4+ goals in 7 of his last 9 games.
The Crows took a big step towards a top 4 finish with a big win over the Suns. They improved to 7-1 in their last 8 and have won their last 6 at home. The Crows have claimed victory in 4 of the last 5 editions of ‘The Showdown’ including the last three when listed as the home team. They have successfully covered the line in 9 of the last 15 meetings as the betting favourite and are 4-0 at the line in the last 4 as the home side. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with an average of 153.5ppg across those matches. That trend is likely to continue as the Under has held on in 9 of the Powers’ last 11 away games and 11 of the Crows 14 following a win. The Crows have been phenomenal in the first half this season, especially the second term where they have outscored their opponents in 16 of 18 second quarters played this season. A wire to wire win is on the cards.
The Pies remain at the top of the ladder despite back-to-back narrow losses, and a total of only 8 points now separates the top seven teams. The Tigers posted consecutive wins for the first time this season with a win over the Eagles and will be hoping that they can put together another solid defensive display. The Under is 9-2 in the Tigers last 11 home games and has also held on in the last two meetings in this series. The Pies are 4-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 following a loss and have led at the main break in each of their last 7 games played at the MCG. Despite leading the competition, the Pies have kicked the opening goal in only 44% of matches played. There could be some value in taking Seth Campbell to kick the opening goal as he has done so twice this season.
Defence continues to be the biggest issue for the Saints as they conceded 113 in a loss to the Cats – their 6th straight loss. The Demons win over the Kangaroos in Round 18 was short-lived as they failed to chase down the Blues in an 8-point loss at the MCG last week. The Demons have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this matchup and it has been 23 meetings since the last time one of these teams won by a margin of 41+ in this series which suggests a tight contest. The Over has hit in the Saints last 4 games played at Marvel Stadium, but they have been held to 64.7ppg in their last 6 encounters against the Demons. The visitors have been slow starters this season having led at quarter time only 5 times with only 21% of their points scored in the first term.