The Blues were hoping that a battle against bitter rivals Collingwood would bring the best out of them, but it was not the case. The Pies kicked 8 goals in the third term to win by 56 points. The Blues have lost their last three games and have now covered the line in only 3 of their last 16 games following a loss. Meanwhile, the Lions scored a season high 120 points in a win over the Power which helped maintain second spot on the ladder. They have won 8 of their last 10 as the betting favourite in this series and have lost only one of their last 9 games as an away favourite in the last 12 months. The Blues have covered the line in only 3 of their last 11 as an underdog and are 0-4 at the line in their last 4 home games. The Under is 4-0 in the Lions last 4 away games and has held on in 75% of Blues home games in the last year.
The Pies solidified their position at the top of the ladder with a humping win over the Blues, but their 8-game win streak is in jeopardy when they head north to take on a Suns side that is knocking on the door of a spot in the top 4. They have won their last two and have compiled a 13-3 record in their last 16 games as the home team. That includes a 101-90 win over the Pies in the corresponding fixture last season. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings hosted by the Suns and that trend is likely to continue as the Suns have averaged 106ppg across their last three – closely followed by the Pies with 103.7ppg during the same period. Bailey Humphrey is one to keep an eye on as he has averaged 3.75 scoring shots across his last four games. The big concern for the home side is an 0-6 line record in their last 6 games when facing the team on top of the ladder.
It has rained goals in the last month for the Bulldogs with 105+ points scored in each of their last four games – all wins. They have compiled a phenomenal record against teams in the bottom half, but the 3rd placed Crows will provide a greater threat this week. The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 10 as a home favourite and have claimed victory in 5 of their last 6 as the home team in this series. The Crows have won 12 of their last 13 when installed as the favourite but have managed to win only 1 of their last 8 as an away underdog. Marvel Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground for the Crows as they have trailed at the first break in each of their last 6 games at this venue. The Bulldogs will prove the doubters wrong.
The Giants improved to 5-1 in their last 6 with a 111-52 win over the Eagles. It was their third consecutive win and the third time in as many games that they scored 105+ points. They face a true test this week when they host the Cats – a team that has won 6 of its last 7 and ranks second in points scored this season. The Giants have won and covered the line in their last 3 against the Cats will all three of those games taking place at GMHBA Stadium. They are also 3-0 at the line in their last 3 as a home underdog in this series and dating further back have covered the line in 9 of the last 11 meetings as the outsider. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 battles hosted by the Giants and has also held on in 63% of Giants games following a win in the last year.
At the end of Round 11, the Bombers were in finals contention with the same number of wins at the Bulldogs and Giants. A run of five consecutive losses has ended any hopes of finals footy, and they have now covered the line in only 4 of their last 14 (29%) following a loss. Things aren’t much better down the road at Richmond where the Tigers have lost 7 in a row and 8 of their last 10 as a home underdog. There is some hope for the home side as the Bombers cannot be trusted in this spot having failed to cover the line in their last 7 games as the betting favourite. The Under has held on in 8 of the Tigers last 11 home games and each of their last 5 when listed as the home team against the Bombers.
The Dockers led at three-quarter time last week but failed to hold on against the Swans bringing their 6-game win streak to an end. They have won only 4 of their last 10 following a loss but will be hoping that a 6-1 record in their last 7 against the Hawks can trump this. The bookies can barely split them, and they could trade favouritism multiple times prior to kick off. If the Hawks manage to carry the tag into the game, it could be valuable as they have won 13 of their previous 16 matches as the betting favourite. Moreover, the Dockers have covered the line in only 1 of their last 7 when at home to a team that is on a winning streak. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the winning team having scored 93+ points in all but one of those matches.
The Demons have been very competitive at times in the last month but despite getting close on multiple occasions, they have lost their last five games. Slow starts have hurt them, and they have not led at the first break since their Round 11 win over the Swans. They get a chance to rectify that here as the Kangaroos defence has been non-existent having conceded 134 and 150 points in their last two. The Demons have won their last 4 at home to the Kangaroos with the Over hitting in 6 of the last 7 meetings hosted by the Dees. The Kangaroos could exceed expectations as they are 6-0 at the line in their last 6 games following a loss. Nick Larkey has kicked 5 goals in each of his last two for the visitors and is great value to slot 3+ goals in a game that should produce plenty of points.
The Swans kept their slim finals hopes alive with a narrow win over the Dockers and anything but maximum points here will all but rule them out of finals contention. They have failed to cover the line in their last 4 away to the Saints but their H2H record in this spot is solid. They have won 6 of their last 9 when facing the Saints as an away favourite and 13 of the last 17 meetings overall as the betting elect. The Saints are 0-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 home games leading into this which is concerning. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average of 149.0 total match points across those games. Both teams have scored 54% of their points in the second half so look for the game to open up after the main break.
A 92-point haul against the Lions was not enough to get the win for the Power last week but anything near that figure would suffice here as the Eagles have scored more than that only once this season. The Power have won their last 4 at home to the Eagles with an average winning margin of 55.5 points. The Eagles have lost their last 9 away games, and their attack has shown no signs of improving with an average of only 53.75ppg in their last four outings. The Under has held on in their last 4 games as a result and tells us that their contribution to the total will be limited in this match. Combined with a 57% scoring percentage in the final terms, the Power are a great play at the line.