UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 22 June

The odds for this one have shifted quite a bit since opening but at this point, Khalil Rountree averages out as the betting favorite. That stands to reason as his stock is arguably at an all-time high despite entering this contest off of a defeat.

Rountree was halted in the fourth round of a title attempt against Alex Pereira but made a solid account of himself. The loss even caused Rountree to go up in the UFC’s rankings, though that’s a contentious discussion for another day.

A vicious striker who has finally found something of an identity, Rountree’s inconsistency in the UFC is an accurate reflection of his struggle to find his footing. Rountree has brutalized fighters on the feet with his sharp Muay Thai fueled by profuse physicality, but he hasn’t always gotten the results he should.

That seemingly changed after a loss to Marcin Prachnio in 2021. Now putting together a bit more volume and capitalizing on counter-punching opportunities with zeal, Rountree has gone 5-1 since that defeat.

Assuming he isn’t damaged from the arduous battle with Pereira last year, Rountree figures to match up well against former champion Jamahal Hill. A hearty fighter with a divisive legacy, Hill has struggled consistently in and out of the cage since capturing the title in 2023.

Injured before he had a chance to defend, Hill vacated the title and has not found success since. Injuries have plagued him and when he has entered the cage, two defeats at the hands of Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka have followed.

Hill can end a fight with either hand but everything south of that is less impressive. Footwork has never been a strong suit of Hill but at this point of his career it’s surprising how often he falls out of position while attacking.

At 34-years-old, it’s asking too much for Hill to reinvent himself technically. His hands are surprisingly sharp and he often ends combinations with knees, but ultimately I believe he fares poorly if he hopes to out-strike a Muay Thai specialist in Khalil Rountree.

With five rounds to work and points to prove on both ends, I expect the best from both men. This bout figures to have some degree of chaos from the opening round but Rountree is the calmer, sharper fighter of the two.

The blueprint to beat Hill is out and Rountree has the skills to execute it. Look for him to find a finish around the midway point and call for another title shortly thereafter.

3-1 in his last four outings, things have been on an upward tilt for Ignacio Bahamondes. His last three outings earned just as many bonuses; two were knocked out, one was submitted. Offense has always been at the forefront of Bahamondes’ style but lately he has been putting it together against better opposition.

It’s taken some time for him to find his footing, but Bahamondes seems to be turning a corner at 27-years-old. Bahamondes brings a tall 6’3” (191cm) frame to lightweight and has slowly but surely minted himself as one of the division’s best strikers.

His length remains a considerable asset for Bahamondes but there’s no denying his sharp technical ability. Subtle footwork, clean counter-punches, and intelligent striking have led training partners and opponents alike to reflect on the striking excellence of Bahamondes.

That said, the Chilean fighter is also capable of ending things on the ground, proving as offense-minded there as he is standing. Though he only owns two submissions as a professional, both came in the last three years.

With a finish rate nearing 80%, Bahamondes always has an eye towards the finish. He will find kinship with fellow striking savant Rafael Fiziev.

A longtime Muay Thai competitor, Fiziev built a name for himself as with sharp, flashy technique and a willingness to take on all-comers. Fiziev has spent recent years as a Muay Thai instructor in Thailand, maintaining his lifelong relationship with the sport.

Naturally, Fiziev is stellar on the feet. He always has been and his transition into MMA didn’t change that. He has compiled some impressive highlights in the UFC, including a knockout of Rafael dos Anjos, but recent outings have cast doubt on Fiziev’s future prospects.

Though only 32-years-old, Fiziev has amassed a sizable sum of miles over the course of a grueling career. His most recent appearance, another decision loss to Justin Gaethje, did little to stoke the flames of optimism.

Though Fiziev remains a dangerous opponent on the feet, his defense has only gotten worse over time. As age has frayed his timing, Fiziev has resorted to blitzkrieg attacks that leave him open to counters. This may prove to be disastrous against the substantially taller Bahamondes.

With a significant size advantage and the ability to time his foe as he charges in, I anticipate a pleasant night for the Chilean finisher. The crowd will be in support of Fiziev this weekend but Bahamondes will exit the arena with a few new fans after dispatching of a Muay Thai legend on the feet.

Out of action for nearly a year, Curtis Blaydes is back on the comeback trail after a quick loss to Tom Aspinall. 1-2 in his last three, Blaydes has stumbled a bit in recent outings but is still established as a top contender.

One of the best wrestlers in the division, Blaydes leans on that skill set heavily as he grounds foes time and time again. Once he establishes top position, Blaydes can be utterly devastating.

Living up to his terrific surname, Blaydes often employs elbows and heavy ground and pound to slice up and overwhelm his opposition. The American isn’t one to utilize many submission attempts but he has proven remarkable difficult to escape with an elite awareness in tie-ups.

Though it has taken some time, Blaydes has also developed his striking to a deceptively effective degree. It is not his greatest asset nor will it ever be, but Blaydes has functional striking powered by surprising speed and timing.

With nearly 20 bouts in the UFC under his belt, Blaydes is a battle-tested veteran rightfully favored this weekend over organizational newcomer Rizvan Kuniev. Hailing from Russia, Kuniev secured his UFC contract with an abrupt finish of Hugo Cunha on Dana White’s Contender Series last year.

Various reschedules have delayed his debut, but Kuniev finally hits the Octagon this weekend. Though he is not a household name, some may recognize him from a tepid fight with Renan Ferreira. Initially declared a decision win for Kuniev, the result was overturned after Kuniev tested positive for a variety of banned substances.

Kuniev has struggled to make particularly strong impressions even in the midst of a very successful career. Strong, stifling, and soft in the midsection, Kuniev doesn’t push a relentless pace but rather tries to drag his foes into quick sand and suffocate them.

Kuniev does well when he’s allowed to press foes against the cage and assert his strength. Attacks at close range tend to be his best but his overall work rate is intermittent and leaves something to be desired.

When he has his way, Kuniev will bully into close range, grind against his opponent a bit, and eventually wrestle them to the floor. There is nothing particularly savvy about Kuniev but he is a strong fighter who does well to stick to his foes and maintain advantageous positions in the clinch.

That said, he will be facing the best wrestler of his career and arguably looking to beat Curtis Blaydes at his own game. The striking prowess of Kuniev has looked inconsistent at best and averages out to be underwhelming. If wrestling is his primary path to victory, Kuniev may be in trouble.

Blaydes has dealt with persistent wrestlers in the past and shown he knows how to do some damage while avoiding being held down. With experience on his side in all the ways that count, Blaydes should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Arguably the better man everywhere, Blaydes has the tools to end the night early and put in a statement at UFC on ABC 8.

2-1 in the UFC, Myktybek Orolbai is eight months removed from that singular loss, coming up short against Mateusz Rebecki. The bout was a bloody and chaotic one but a split verdict went against Orolbai, handing him his first loss since 2020.

Though he hasn’t yet established himself a staple in the UFC, Orolbai has quickly garnered a fan base thanks to his aggressive characteristics. Flat out mean inside the cage, Orolbai’s first priority is just getting his hands on his opponents.

Whether it’s wrestling or striking, Orolbai likes to stick to his foes and assert his strength. Recent efforts have seen Orolbai sucking wind down the stretch but that doesn’t stop him from applying pressure, even if his gas tank is running on empty.

Defense is not an asset of Orolbai but he remains a tough fighter who will push forward until the final bell. The betting favorite, Orolbai stands to offer a very stiff challenge to Tofiq Musayev this weekend.

With experience in both Bellator and RIZIN, it wouldn’t be fair to say Musayev will be shocked by much he sees in the UFC. A native of Azerbaijan, Musayev has arguably been ready for a debut in the UFC’s lightweight division for years.

A striker at his core, Musayev is not a horrible grappler but shines best on the feet. Capable of operating from both stances, Musayev has power in every limb and is deceptively quick when he commits to letting his hands go.

There is something unassuming about Musayev but he has a tendency to lure his opponents into his game. Feints and subtle footwork are significant factors, but Musayev’s raw punching power and the threat it establishes cannot be ignored.

Myktybek Orolbai may have more experience in the Octagon but he isn’t necessarily the more seasoned fighter overall. Musayev is the technically sharper fighter and should find success catching Orolbai on the way in.

Orolbai is hearty and unlikely to fold quickly but he lacks the footwork needed to outmaneuver Musayev. Orolbai has a path to victory by wrestling and slowing down the pace; I anticipate he’ll need to chase that condition.

The slower fighter, Orolbai will struggle to find consistency on the feet against Musayev. If he cannot get his wrestling going, the Azerbaijani will start rolling downhill in a kickboxing match and find a way to get his hand raised.

3-0-1 in the UFC, Nazim Sadykhov has largely been successful since entering the organization a bit over two years ago. It hasn’t been quite as easy as it looks on paper, but Sadykhov has proven himself a relevant prospect in the lightweight division.

Sadykhov was in action earlier this year, putting in a competitive five minutes with Ismael Bonfim. A head kick led to a doctor recommended finish at the end of the opening round but one can’t help but still feel a bit peckish after the outing.

As a whole, Sadykhov has found a way to avoid defeat without it being entirely fulfilling. His pacing is a bit overstated and while it appears he has the conditioning to output consistent volume, he rarely asserts himself to the degree he arguably could.

Sadykhov strikes and operates decently from the southpaw stance but tends to look his best when he can find time on top. Sadykhov isn’t an overwhelming wrestler but his takedown ability is underrated, though he deploys it intermittently.

Nikolas Motta was first introduced to the UFC in 2015 but didn’t get his contract until 2022. The style of Motta has barely changed in that time, and since debuting in the organization he has not shot a single takedown.

A striker through and through, Motta lives and dies by his performance on the feet. A stocky Brazilian with heavy hands, Motta is not a particularly savvy fighter but he doesn’t lack in savagery. Defense is an afterthought for Motta but his offense is effective, with much of its success driven by his thudding power.

Motta has been finished in all of his losses and I expect him to follow the same trend this weekend. Motta is the kind of fighter who will press forward and force a war to unfold whether or not his opponent consents.

Sadykhov has the greater variety of tools to wield in this bout and he may be best served trying to lean on his wrestling, but it’s another question entirely if he would even succeed. As aforementioned, Sadykhov is not a determined wrestler and beyond his intent, Sadykhov may not even be able to ground Motta consistently.

If this bout does indeed take place largely on the feet, expect these two to clash in hectic exchanges and make for a competitive affair. Motta will have no better chance to win than in a kickboxing bout; look for him to keep things on the feet, outwork Sadykhov, and extend his unlikely win streak.

4-1 in the UFC overall, things are beginning to come together for Muhammad Naimov. Though he suffered that lone defeat last year, he rebounded four months ago with a solid decision win over Kaan Ofli.

Now 30-years-old, Naimov has settled in as one of the bigger and stronger fighters in the division. He isn’t a particularly flashy fighter but keeps himself relevant in every area. Capable of outpointing fighters at range, winging heavy counters, and securing top time, Naimov has won fights in essentially every manner at this point.

One of Naimov’s best assets is his willingness to turn fights into a grind. He has shown some vulnerability to being pushed back and forced to deal with extended offenses; fortunately, he is ever-improving at stifling his foes and slowing them down to his pace.

Naimov will need every tool at his disposal to keep his next opponent off of him. Already infamous for his relentless nature, Bogdan Grad made a successful organizational debut on the same event Naimov last competed on.

Grad took on Lucas Alexander and rallied back from a rough first round to close the show in the next. Riding a four-fight win streak, Grad has put full faith in his aggression, building his style around the goal of breaking the spirit of his foes.

All gas and no breaks, the native of Austria is as defensively deficient as you might expect. He is durable – his style simply wouldn’t work without it – but ultimately it’s his pressure that yields the results. A diverse attacker, Grad has a wide arsenal at his disposal and is willing to throw out anything he thinks will do some damage.

There are obvious concerns about how Grad will be forced to evolve against higher-tier opposition and this weekend is a sample of how he may fare. Naimov is technically equipped in every area but will have to find the eye in the storm that is Grad.

I anticipate the betting favorite to start off well but 15 minutes is a long time when Grad is standing front and center unloading volume. Look for Grad to come back from another difficult opening round to break down and overwhelm Naimov.