UFC 317 Preview & Tips | Sunday 29 June

Whether being featherweight champion wasn’t enough or the weight cut was too much, Ilia Topuria is ready to embark on a new campaign in a new division. A global superstar, Topuria is a heavy betting favorite over one of the most popular and dangerous fighters in the division. If that isn’t a sign of Topuria’s aura, nothing is. 

The simultaneous pride of Georgia and Spain, Topuria has done his part to establish himself as an elite. In particular, his last two years have been a masterclass as he picked up wins over Josh Emmett, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. 

The wins have aged well as Emmett and Volkanovski immediately found success in rebound fights. The latter even recaptured the featherweight belt, making Topuria’s second round knockout of Volkanovski even more impressive in hindsight. 

An offensive dynamo, Topuria is regarded highly for his concussive power but there is method behind the madness. He throws with bad intent and unloads in combinations but does a remarkable job of setting those shots up. 

Topuria’s hands have garnered fan fare for their precision but his feet are what impress me more. Stable, balanced, and technically sound, Topuria is well-schooled at corralling his foes and keeping them within his range. 

Feints and head movement help alleviate danger from punches on the way in, but Topuria does have a habit of getting caught with kicks. Though they haven’t had much impact, he is nonetheless eating some on the way in as he cannot defend against everything while encroaching on his foe’s space. 

Despite that, Topuria’s greatest threat won’t be from kicks this weekend. When he takes on the man known as “Do Bronx”, he will meet his foe in the center of the cage and create chaos. Topuria asked for it against Holloway and ultimately forced it – he won’t need to seek it out at UFC 317. 

Charles Oliveira is more than a lightweight myth, he is the record holder for Most Finishes in the division’s history. That figure even excludes the six finishes Oliveira racked up at featherweight, where he was decidedly younger, weight drained, and fragile. 

Since committing to his lightweight campaign, Oliveira has picked up an abundance of bonuses, victories, highlights, and fans. An offensive juggernaut in every sense of the word, Oliveira can and has ended fights in every area with a multitude of techniques. 

Much like his main event opponent, Oliveira entered the world of MMA heralded for his grappling ability. The threat of a submission looms every time Oliveira is grappling, but he has become a remarkably crisp Muay Thai specialist. 

Though he is one of the best in the division on the mat, Oliveira’s options of getting it there are few and far between. Fortunately, he can handle himself on the feet and is likely to stand his ground here. 

A fellow fan of punches in bunches, Oliveira won’t shy from a firefight. That said, defense is a bit of an afterthought for Oliveira as he doesn’t tend to move his head, particularly after throwing punches. 

This has led to him hitting the canvas a comical amount of times, though he typically rises back to his feet and gives as good as he got. Defensive liabilities may prove to be disastrous, especially if he is forced to win this fight on the feet. 

No fighter is unbeatable but Topuria has shown more than enough capability in the areas Oliveira struggles in. Few fighters have a better “puncher’s chance” than Oliveira, but things do weigh against him from a technical standpoint. Topuria is apt to capitalize on explosive but favorable matchmaking, seizing the lightweight crown to begin a new reign.

Same Game Multi: Topuria Wins By KO/TKO + Topuria 2+ Knockdowns 

With three defenses under his belt, Alexandre Pantoja is thriving as flyweight champion. Holding firm as the only Brazilian title holder in the UFC right now, Pantoja most recently welcomed Kai Asakura to the UFC by choking him in the second round. 

Having handled the likes of Moreno, Royval, and Erceg on top of a divisional champion from another organization, Pantoja’s recent resume alone is enough to install him as a regular betting favorite. The fact that he already holds a decision win over the man challenging him this weekend is the cherry on top. 

Pantoja and Kara-France met nine years ago on The Ultimate Fighter and though the Brazilian had his hand raised, a closely contested bout fed interest in a potential full-length rematch. Though both took long roads to UFC 317, they have found consistent success in radically contrasting styles. 

The champion has minted a career as a grinding grappler with an affinity for back control. Pantoja is locked into any opportunity to take the back but in the process is more than happy to pin his foes to the cage and force them to fend off takedowns. 

In a somewhat seminar vein to bantamweight king Merab Dvalishvili, the Brazilian isn’t focused on completing every takedown attempt so much as he wants his foes to work. If he succeeds, wonderful. If not, he gets to pressure and persist over the course of a long fight. 

There have been concerns about Pantoja’s gas tank in the past but he has proven himself capable on multiple occasions. Five round affairs are grueling given his style and pace but Pantoja is surprisingly consistent down the stretch. 

It’s clearly established that Pantoja is a danger when he can get his hands on his foe, but I do believe some credit is due for his refinements made on the feet. He isn’t a surgically precise striker but has done a good job of letting his striking flow a bit better with the rest of his game. 

Low kicks are a distinctly underrated weapon for Pantoja and one that has enabled him to score points and steal victory in the past. He may not be a devastating finisher on the feet, but he stays busy and gives his foes a lot to worry about. 

Kai Kara-France is all too familiar with the versatility of Pantoja, as he wasn’t even consistently wrestled when he first met the Brazilian. The threat of takedowns helped stall Kara-France’s offense and a plucky Pantoja managed to grab a surprising amount of success on the feet. 

In the years since, Kara-France has made strides to develop overall but has evolved most clearly as an anti-wrestler. His takedown defense has held up quite well over the years, enabling him to exploit advantages as a kickboxer. 

Kara-France is a quick, experienced striker who hails from City Kickboxing in New Zealand. The well-known camp has produced another strong fighter on the feet but this particular match-up remains a challenging one for the team as a whole. 

Pantoja represents a fighter who will come forward unafraid of the feints and posturing of Kara-France. When allowed to fight at his own pace, Kara-France does well to dictate the range and ramp up his volume. 

When he’s forced to worry about low kicks at range and a hard-charging Brazilian diving for his hips, output slows and the pace of the fight tilts in Pantoja’s favor again. That isn’t to say Pantoja will finish his takedowns with ease, but he has proven the ability to stay in front of an opponent and force them back. 

Kara-France is the technically superior striker but seemingly lacks the tools necessary to keep Pantoja off of him all night long. He may be able to stay upright for the majority of the bout but Pantoja will rack up minutes of control time in the process. 

If Kara-France continues his habit of turning his back as part of his escaping process, then Pantoja may seize the back of Kara-France much like he has so many others. Though the New Zealand native is an outstanding fighter who will surely put his best effort forth, I expect the Brazilian to capitalize on some critical errors and close out another title defense. 

The betting lines have seen radical changes from their opening position and despite a short notice call-up in the biggest fight of his career, Joshua Van is now installed as the favorite. Only 23-years-old, it’s hard to believe how active he has been since making his UFC debut just over two years ago. 

Stunningly, he has racked up eight fights in that time while suffering only a single defeat. That one loss was handed to him by Charles Johnson eleven months ago; in the time since, Van picked up another four victories. 

Blessed with the vigor of youth, Van trains throughout the year and maintains his conditioning ready to step in on a moment’s notice. He has done just that, filling bouts on short notice multiple times and generally putting on impressive performances. 

A boxer at his core, Van has some of the best hands in the division and a deep gas tank to back it up. The volume he outputs is enough of a boon on its own but his sharp boxing enables him to pick foes apart at all ranges. 

A late start to wrestling, Van has been quick to focus on staying upright. His takedown defense has clearly evolved over time and on the few occasions he has been grounded, Van generally rises back to his feet with rapidity. 

He has largely passed the tests asked of him but UFC 317 is the biggest step up in Van’s career. The young fighter from Myanmar competed only last month but is happy to welcome #1 ranked Brandon Royval to the cage. 

A former title challenger and longtime contender, Brandon Royval has traveled a long road quite fast. His first couple years in the Octagon saw him scrape together a 2-2 record but it has largely been uphill since. 

5-1 in his last six, Royval has asserted his relevancy against elites on multiple occasions. Though he came up short against current champion Alexandre Pantoja, he had his hand raised against the likes of Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira. 

Royval has been used to five round affairs for a while now but will drop back down to a three-rounder for this contest. It will be his first since 2023, when he ironically ended things early against Matheus Nicolau. 

The resume of Royval speaks for itself and his evolution as a fighter cannot be denied. A swift striker with increasingly solid footwork, Royval is capable of operating at all ranges and offering finishing threats in every area. 

Royval is not a devastating puncher in the traditional sense but he has a deep weapons chest to pull from. Spinning elbows, quick knees, and kicks to every limb are the standard when Royval fights but he has also shown deceptive capability on the mat. 

Much ado has been made about Royval challenging the grappling liabilities of Joshua Van and it remains a viable path to victory for him. That said, I expect this contest to take place largely on the feet, with thin margins tipping the scales of a competitive affair. 

Of particularly interest is Royval’s southpaw stance and it’s commonality with the only man to defeat Van in the UFC. Though Van typically owns a stark statistical advantage on the feet, that did not prove to be the case when he took on mobile southpaw Charles Johnson. 

The fight – dead even hearing into the final round – saw Van struggle to maintain the same offensive consistency. Movement was one factor of that, but another was Van’s discomfort dealing with a southpaw. 

A technical breakdown of that fight could be a piece in and of itself but the takeaway is a blueprint for Brandon Royval to follow. Mobility to exploit the fact Van enjoys stationary or over-reaching targets, nullifying the younger man at close range, and staying active at range with the rear body kick. 

Executing the game plan is another story entirely but Royval has shown the ability to exceed expectations and output impressive work over the duration of a fight. With only fifteen minutes to work, I anticipate a more active Royval to enter the cage this weekend. 

There is little doubt Van will be a top ranked continue in the coming years but this is a herculean ascent in competition on short notice, no less. Look for the veteran to keep Van guessing on the outside, staying ahead at range and taking home a decision win. 

Originally slated for UFC 311, a wild set of circumstances led to Moicano being pulled from the bout and moved into a headlining title shot against Islam Makhachev. With the ill-fated side quest now completed, Moicano can reopen with regular business hours and square off with his originally intended foe. 

With the exception of his spirited but largely doomed run at the (then) king, “Money” Moicano has done tremendously well in recent years. Four wins between 2022-2024 help cement his status as a contender but a closer look at the fights reveal how dynamic the Brazilian can be. 

Though regarded as a grappling specialist, Moicano has made serious strides in his striking that keep him relevant and dangerous despite an unassuming KO/TKO percentage. Moicano is more apt to finish things on the mat than anywhere else but it’s worth noting Moicano’s surprisingly precise straight strikes coupled with his hard kicks. 

Moicano has been hurt and dropped in the past but he possesses an abundance of heart. He was taken to the edge by Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint-Denis but ultimately finished both in the next round. The Brazilian will need every trick he has when he takes on perennial veteran Beneil Dariush. 

Though the same age as his opponent, Beneil Dariush enters this weekend not only as the betting underdog but perceived as the older fighter. Dariush rides a two-fight skid into UFC 317 with both bouts ending in the first round. 

Dariush has now been finished five times with two of those coming in a six-month stretch. Though it may not automatically signal catastrophe in many fighters, Dariush’s durability has appeared markedly diminished in recent outings. 

The salt-and-peppered veteran is a tricky southpaw with absolutely elite grappling and underrated punching power, but his timing and punch resistance has fallen a step behind. That said, Dariush is competent everywhere and a great example of a veteran who continued to evolve alongside the sport. 

However, it simply doesn’t seem that Dariush is in his prime anymore. How far removed he is from it may be proven at UFC 317.  

Dariush’s punching power is often undersold but that may be his most viable path to victory. Unlikely to wear out Moicano over the course of a grueling and extended bout, Dariush may need to time a big shot on a breakable foe. 

Consistently beating Moicano to the punch on the feet is improbable; establishing enough top time to win rounds hasn’t been part of Dariush’s agenda for years. All told, with Moicano’s impressive rise compared to Dariush’s recent slips, it is easy to envision another triumph for the Brazilian. 

 2-0 in the UFC with notable victims for both, Felipe Lima has quickly maneuvered himself into the spotlight as he opens UFC 317’s main card. Lima burst into the organization this time last year with a finish of Muhammad Naimov. Most recently, Lima handled Miles Johns over three rounds. 

Both wins were impressive in their own right and the Brazilian has demonstrated a solid level of versatility across the past year. The 27-year-old already appears surprisingly seasoned; he has completed a five round bout in the past and finished fights with flying knees and chokes alike. 

Lima can do a bit of everything but his approach to this fight may be skewed towards grappling. Lima doesn’t show much of it on paper with only three submissions to his name, but he is deceptively effective on the mat and a surprisingly adept wrestler. 

Stronger than he looks, Lima has clashed with some solid grapplers in the past and come out the other side looking very competent. A decision win over Danish grinder Jonas Magard stands out as an example. 

The Brazilian has certainly proven powerful on the feet with the majority of his wins secured there, but he will have his hands full trying to pick apart Payton Talbott in a kickboxing match. The American is the underdog this weekend and desperate for a win after a shock upset loss to Raoni Barcelos earlier this year. 

The defeat saw him grounded eight times on nearly double the attempts and showcased some vulnerabilities in the young man’s game. Leading up to that point, the 26-year-old had steamrolled three foes in the UFC and garnered quick hype; clearly, he didn’t have all the answers yet. 

Talbott is a sharp and smooth striker with finishing ability in every limb. There is something to be said about the relatively unimpressive level of opposition he has crushed, but that shouldn’t take away from his legitimate skill as a kickboxer. 

Talbott moves well and has excellent timing inside the cage. His power is a relevant factor but he sets his offense up with layers of feints that disguise his intent. Even as he was pressured and grounded in his last bout, he continued to do many of the right things, only falling behind in longer exchanges that the veteran could drag out. 

The betting line sees Felipe Lima as a clear favorite and while that may be fair given his body of work against solid opposition, it may also be a slight overreaction after Talbott’s most recent defeat. The loss hasn’t aged poorly, and I believe Talbott gets an easier match-up here. 

The American is a precise and heavy-handed striker. He’ll own a technical advantage and has superior length to wield it. If Talbott can stay on his feet, he should stay ahead in this fight.  

Lima has pulled out wrestling as an accompaniment in the past but has rarely sought to win a fight entirely on the back of grappling. If Lima is unable or unwilling to do that here, Talbott may be part of another upset but this time he’ll be benefiting from it.