UFC 316 Preview & Tips | Sunday 8 June

Though he only wrested away the bantamweight title less than a year ago, Merab Dvalishvili has already put in a successful defense of the belt. Folding to the challenger’s timeline and entering off the heels of a brutal staph infection, Dvalishvili outpointed Umar Nurmagomedov over five rounds in a tremendous display.

The win has gone a long way in establishing the pride of Georgia as a bantamweight great. Having faced a murderer’s row of top contenders and current/former champions, Dvalishvili has proven himself time and time again with remarkable gusto.

Known as “The Machine”, there aren’t many fighters who better live up to their respective monikers. Reputed for his gas tank, Dvalishvili overwhelms with an onslaught of offense and activity. At this point, he’s become a master of his craft and one of the best at blending his frenetic pace with deceptively technical execution.

There have been some blemishes and the fleeting reason to believe Dvalishvili could be beaten, but as a whole he has remained shockingly resilient and consistent as a fighter. Notably, that trend held up against the man he took the title from and will once again face this weekend.

His win over Sean O’Malley in September of 2024 kicked off the Georgian’s championship reign but a dramatic fifth round moment that saw Dvalishvili clutching his stomach paved the way to a rematch. Their first fight largely went the way Dvalishvili prefers but both men are vowing to show improved versions of themselves at UFC 316.

There is no denying the style Sean O’Malley has brought to the cage as a professional. But substance isn’t absent, as O’Malley has displayed carefully refined striking skills throughout his career.

Devastating power in both hands are weighed against a reflex-based, flashy defensive flair; it combines to expose an air of volatility every time O’Malley does battle. Prominent strikers on O’Malley’s level aren’t common, but the greatest question asked of them at championship levels are posed by wrestlers.

The first time these two met, Dvalishvili stifled the striking of O’Malley and found success outworking him both on the feet and in tie-ups. Takedowns are a notable aspect of this contest but Dvalishvili has continually piled up strike numbers by virtue of his wrestling threat.

No matter how this fight is sliced, O’Malley will have a tough time winning rounds against Dvalishvili. Potentially “KO or bust”, O’Malley will need to be devastatingly effective when he does find opportunities to unload some offense.

As a whole, trends point to Merab Dvalishvili doing what he does best. Newfound dedication from O’Malley is a point in his favor but this remains a miserable stylistic match-up for the flashy American. There’s no shame in losing to the greatest bantamweight of all time, though.

Same Game Multi: Dvalishvili Head To Head + Dvalishvili 90+ Significant Strikes + Dvalishvili 5+ Takedowns 

One of the heaviest favorites of the night despite her status as the title challenger, Kayla Harrison has had a meteoric and impressive rise through combat sports. A two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo and champion in PFL, Harrison has also been wholly successful since entering the UFC last year.

2-0 with wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira, arguably the biggest challenge Harrison has faced is the weight cut down to bantamweight. Harrison competed in Judo at 172lbs (78kg) and won millions in PFL at 155lbs (70.3kg), but now contends at 135lbs (61.2kg).

The drop in weight has led to a bit of steam taken out of Harrison’s game but as a whole she has retained surprising efficiency against top ranked contenders at bantamweight. Harrison’s expertise in Judo lends her tremendous advantages in tie-ups but she has garnered less attention for her increasingly competent wrestling.

Though she doesn’t have a large bag of tricks in terms of pure wrestling, she executes explosively and has the capability to pick up any woman in the division. All together, her Judo and wrestling blend for a uniquely effective style that sees her secure a variety of takedowns.

Predictably, Harrison’s striking is not a prominent feature of her skill set. Fortunately, she’s managed to build a functional defense with similarly competent footwork that allows her to navigate distance with respect to technique.

Harrison’s striking will never be a dramatic weapon in her arsenal but her ability to avoid damage at range has proven helpful. Once again, she will likely be looking to push forward, get her hands on her opponent, and impose her strength.

Even if Kayla Harrison gets her way at UFC 316, Julianna Pena will not be quick to fold. No stranger to tough fights, Pena was at the height of the division after ten rounds against Amanda Nunes. The perennial underdog, Pena jumped into a title fight after a layoff and got her hand raised against Raquel Pennington.

Though the decision is a point of contention, Pena enters UFC 316 as the champion and, yet again, underdog. Pena deserves credit for her win over Nunes – a truly shocking upset even with hindsight – but defining how she succeeds isn’t simple.

Relentlessly gritty, Pena has proven her durability and heart on numerous occasions. Though she may battered early in a fight, her ability to persevere and volley back even harder down the stretch is an inborn asset.

Pena is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and her grappling has historically been a strong factor in tipping the scales of close bouts. That said, she has leaned more on striking in recent years and found confidence in outputting volume, pushing forward, and daring women to hit her hard enough to matter.

That trust in her chin has largely been a positive adjustment for Pena. When she’s aggressive and pushing an offensive agenda, Pena can put together surprisingly effective work. It isn’t the cleanest and defense is often an afterthought, but she can get women moving back.

Where Pena may find difficulty is holding up to the takedown efforts of the challenger. With 23% takedown defense throughout her UFC career – which makes up the vast majority of her time as a professional – Pena has showcased solid grappling but poor defensive wrestling.

Harrison went 2 of 8 on takedowns against Vieira, but the Brazilian owned black belts in both Jiu-Jitsu and Judo. Notably, Vieira showed clear awareness of Harrison’s Judo every time the two tied up. While Pena is a bulldog at times, I doubt she will display the same level of savvy in the clinch.

This fight trends to be a bit of a grueling one. Pena will give up moments and minutes but is a tough one to keep pinned to the floor. Suppressing her eventual offensive ramp down the stretch is exceptionally difficult, but the top-heavy style of Harrison will be helpful in the attempt.

Early rounds should go the way of the significantly bigger, stronger, and more skilled fighter. Harrison has taken down some physical powerhouses throughout her MMA career, not even counting the behemoths she toppled in Judo.

Where this fight gets interesting is in the second half. Pena stands to survive the early onslaught and will surely be looking to capitalize on Harrison’s lack of five-round experience in this weight class. I don’t expect Harrison to maintain the same level of efficacy late as in the opening rounds, but I do anticipate her having advantages through the first 15 minutes.

Expect Pena to fight like her life depends on it as the minutes tick away, but Harrison should be able to bank early rounds and stay ahead of Pena down a potentially tense final stretch. With no rest for the weary, a showdown with former queenpin Amanda Nunes seemingly awaits the winner.

Originally scheduled to do battle in Mexico, Pyfer and Gastelum were rescheduled to this weekend after a heavy bout of digestive distress pulled Pyfer from their showdown mere hours before the walk. Now with a revitalized stomach and hairline, Pyfer is ready to get back on track.

2024 was a mixed year for Joe Pyfer but he ultimately ended it on a good note both inside the cage and out. He kicked the year off with a lackluster decision loss to Jack Hermansson – his first proper defeat since 2019 – but closed the year with victories in both MMA and grappling.

Pyfer’s rebound resulted in a win over Marc-Andre Barriault in the UFC and Nicholas Willey in a grappling competition. It may not speak to much on paper, but Pyfer is a deceptively active grappler who may find a path to victory there this weekend.

Largely known as a striker, Pyfer lives up to his moniker of ‘Body Bagz’ with heavy hands and the willingness to use them. He isn’t a particularly swift or agile man, but Pyfer’s power is undeniable and he has a solid sense of distance.

On the mat, Pyfer arguably shows a bit more finesse and composure. An underrated grappler in every sense of the word, Pyfer is stronger than he looks and controls his foes well. Though he lacks some submission urgency, he is a heavy fighter from top position.

That strength and willingness to grapple may prove useful against a hard-charging but beatable veteran in Kelvin Gastelum. Despite being only 33-years-old, it feels as though Gastelum has already has multiple careers in one.

Hovering between welterweight and middleweight, Gastelum has always struggled to keep a handle on his weight. Now firmly set on his decision to compete at middleweight, Gastelum is sure he has the strength and technique necessary to chop down bigger foes.

Historically, it hasn’t always worked out like that. Gastelum is a durable fighter with a solid gas tank but he has often been outgunned in a couple of key areas. Besides leaky takedown defense and fighting poorly off his back, Gastelum has struggled to get through the size and reach of some foes.

There is no questioning Gastelum’s resilience and willingness to charge forward behind heavy offense, but he is aging and has never had a style particularly conducive to longevity. At only 5’9” (175cm), Gastelum may be a built lad but doesn’t match up well with physically strong true middleweights like 6’2” (188cm) Pyfer.

From a skills perspective, there is something to like about Gastelum in this contest. But putting together enough offense to win rounds or elicit a finish is a much different thing. Gastelum may find pockets of success and put on a plucky performance – as he often does – but I am doubtful of his ability to force a victory.

Pyfer is not a high-flying dynamo but has a well-rounded, functional game that he understands. As the much stronger, bigger man this weekend, Pyfer should enjoy the opportunity to let his hands fly and see if Gastelum can hold up to it.

If push comes to shove, Pyfer has a route to victory on the mat, as well. Pyfer isn’t going to come out and surprise people with a new swath of techniques, but his existing skill set should be enough to get the job done.

Making his organizational debut this weekend, the hype behind Patchy Mix is clearly substantive as he finds himself a betting favorite at UFC 316. Mix is largely known for his 10-fight stint in Bellator where he went 9-1 with a bevy of notable victories.

The husband of fellow UFC contender Tatiana Suarez, grappling is predictably a shared love for the two. Mix is a submission specialist who has closed out the majority of his wins on the ground; guillotines specifically make up a high percentage of those finishes.

A uniquely styled fighter, Mix also does a solid job controlling distance with kicks. He isn’t an explosive finisher on the feet but he’s not afraid of poking at his foe from range and winning minutes, putting the impetus on his foe.

This slower paced look plays well into his grappling, as he punishes bad shots and impatience with his submission threat. 20-1 as a professional, Mix has done exceptionally well to stay ahead on scorecards and tip the scales even in fights he can’t find a finish.

Despite his status as the favorite this weekend, Mix will have his hands full dealing with a master of nullification. Mario Bautista is a name many fans recognize with ire after he outpointed Jose Aldo in a tepid affair.

Bautista stuck close to Aldo for large chunks of the bout, racking up over seven minutes of control time. The win may not seem influential to Bautista’s stock, but ultimately he does deserve credit for outworking and controlling a longtime veteran and former champion.

Bautista didn’t win fans with the effort but the win goes a long way in showing his increased versatility. Bautista started his career with an eye towards grappling but recent years have showcased his striking, leading to a smoothly blended fighter with championship aspirations.

Bautista is well-conditioned and while he may not be the hardest hitter in the division, he has good shot selection and timing on the feet. When he feels tension mounting, he’s unafraid of crashing in and forcing a change.

With roots in grappling, Bautista may not be ill-equipped to handle the submission threat of Patchy Mix. A rangy striking bout is unlikely to take place here, as Bautista has shown the ability and willingness to make fights a grind.

That serves him here as Mix would likely prefer to keep things either on the mat or at range. Clinches will favor Bautista and he will be happy to spend time pinning Mix to the cage and racking up points. Yet again, a grimy approach may be the best for Bautista.

Even if Mix manages to pull off a submission, the minutes leading up to the finish would likely be slow-paced. Look for an intelligent fight to take place here, with thin margins tipping the scales of a closely-contested bout. At the end of it all, I can envision Bautista getting his hand raised and moving up the ranks with a narrow victory.

Pushing 30 bouts in the UFC alone and having already competed twice this year, Kevin Holland is maintaining the schedule of activity that he said he would. 1-1 this year, Holland kicked things off with a tough loss to Reinier de Ridder that has aged well. Most recently, Holland rebounded with an upset win over Gunnar Nelson.

Holland had hand raised after three rounds but was still controlled for over nine minutes. The hefty striking advantage Holland had on the feet went a long way towards scoring points but his takedown defense continues to be a relatively sore spot.

Despite that, Holland’s striking remains quite sharp. As a whole, Holland is consistently inconsistent but his long arms and solid punching power have always combined well with his whipping boxing. It’s been a while since he finished by KO/TKO – approximately two years, or seven fights – but Holland is a real threat if he gets to have a kickboxing match.

That may just be obliged by Vicente Luque, a perennial veteran looking to maintain relevancy. Luque notched an upset win over Themba Gorimbo to end 2024, but it may not be a stretch to say he’s exiting his prime at the age of 33.

The win over Gorimbo is a solid indicator that he still has plenty to offer, but Luque has looked a bit slower in recent years. The Brazilian is 2-3 in his last five but notably sustained the first two KO/TKO losses of his career in that stretch.

When a historically durable fighter with an offensive minded style begins to wilt in durability, everything about them tends to unravel. Luque has heavy hands and is a finisher to his core, but his ability to absorb the same damage he once could is beginning to fade.

Anyone familiar with Luque is likely familiar with his superb chokes but this contest is unlikely to hit the mat. Luque may even have an advantage on the ground, but getting it there on his terms seems a tall task.

At this point of their respective careers, a kickboxing match seems most likely. Ideal circumstances for Holland, he should have the edge on the feet as the larger, longer fighter. If Luque does end up trying to pursue takedowns, Holland has survived worse and should find his way back to the feet to inflict damage again.