Super Rugby Pacific Semi-Finals | Tips & Preview

The Crusaders were the most convincing of the Qualifying Round performers, comfortably taking care of the Reds in a 32-12 victory. It was a vintage performance from the hosts, as their forward pack took control early, especially at set piece, and that set the tone for the rest of the game. Slowly but surely, the Crusaders mounted the pressure and were able to turn it into points regularly enough to record a comfortable win to secure another semifinal for the franchise. As mentioned, it was the forwards who were the ones getting the pats on the back, especially the tight five, whose work at the scrum, lineout and at the breakdown got the better of their Queensland counterparts. Scott Barrett led from the front with a busy performance and the starting front row of Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor and Tamaiti Williams all put in big shifts, but the latter has been ruled out this week with a knee injury, as George Bower comes in to start. Will Jordan was given plenty of chances to run from the back and he was dangerous throughout, while the halves combo of Noah Hotham and Rivez Reihana did a good job of keeping the ball alive and putting boot to ball when required.

The Blues pulled off a significant upset last week, beating the Chiefs 19-20. Not only did they keep their season alive in the process, they also knocked the Hurricanes out, with the Chiefs progressing as the ‘lucky loser’ instead, with the Aucklanders’ win sending shockwaves across the competition. They pulled it off in dramatic fashion, as Josh Beehre powered his way over the line from close range, before Beauden Barrett knocked over the easy extras to give the Blues the win, which was particularly impressive given that they were down by 13 points with 20 to play. It took until the 59th minute for the game’s first try to be scored, as Daniel Rona crashed over to have the Chiefs up 6-19, but it took the Blues just five minutes to respond through Kurt Eklund to get right back into the contest. From there, the visitors finished the better of the two teams, keeping a level head and relying on their ascendence at set piece to get them up the field, before Beehre and Barrett finished the job. Barrett earlier butchered a gimme of a try, as he failed to regather his own kick with the try line beckoning, but his overall performance more than made up for it, running, kicking and distributing with precision. Hoskins Sotutu was the pick of the forwards, carrying strongly all night, while the front row deserve plenty of praise not only for their work at the scrum, but also their busy night on defence. Vern Cotter has the luxury of no injury-forced changes for this semifinal, although Zarn Sullivan does come into the XV for Corey Evans to give the Blues a big boot at the back of the field.

The Crusaders won both matchups between these teams in the regular season and being at home on Friday, they have the advantage heading into this clash. However, the Blues’ defence — that was the backbone of last season’s championship-winning team — has gotten better and better as the season has gone on and that will help the Aucklanders stay in this contest.

Best: Blues +5.5 ($1.90)
Value: SGM — Blues +5.5 / Under 49.5 ($3.21)

The Chiefs’ table-topping regular season effort came to the rescue last week, helping them qualify for the semifinals despite losing their Qualifying Final to the Blues 19-20. As the highest-seeded loser, the Hamiltonians stayed alive in the finals, as they let a 13-point lead slip late on to go down in a one-point thriller. Some slippery conditions resulted in a tryless first half, but Cortez Ratima let a sitter of a five-pointer slip through his fingers, failing to gather Daniel Rona’s infield kick, before Rona finally broke the drought in the 59th minute, running a beautiful line to score and put the hosts up 19-6. That’s when the game flipped into the visitors’ favour, as the Chiefs let some poor discipline and some costly errors overcome them in a frustrating final quarter, leaving the door open for the defending champions. The Aucklanders took the opportunity, scoring after the final hooter to steal the win in the Tron, bumping the Chiefs down to the #2 seed for the rest of the finals. Rona was a constant threat for the hosts and he will have Quinn Tupaea back as his midfield partner this week, in a boost for the Chiefs’ back line. Wallace Sititi also comes into the starting lineup after an impactful 30 minutes, and he will get plenty of carries on Saturday, alongside Tupou Vaa’i who was huge in last week’s defeat.

The Brumbies closed out another finals win last Saturday, with a 35-28 victory over the Hurricanes. It was a big finish to the first half that gave the hosts a little bit of breathing room, as Allan Alaalatoa and Billy Pollard scored the last two five-pointers of the opening period to give the ACT a 21-14 halftime lead, before Tom Wright’s try shortly after the break opened the gap up to 14 points. It didn’t take long for the Canes to bounce back through Bailyn Sullivan, but James Slipper continued the front row’s party with another try to restore the Brumbies’ lead to 14 points, ultimately winning the game in the process. It was an opportunistic performance from the Australian leaders, making the most of their entries deep into Hurricanes territory with five tries, and their ability to convert chances into points proved to be the difference in the AU capital. As usual, their work at the breakdown was pivotal to their success, retaining their own ball well while fighting doggedly on defence, led by the tireless duo of Nick Frost and Rob Valetini. The No.8 was also immense on attack, with a game-high 16 carries, while Wright often looked dangerous and Len Ikitau racked up another damaging game in the midfield. Importantly, the Brumbies got through last week’s game unscathed, allowing Stephen Larkham to name an unchanged team for Saturday’s semifinal.

They have a real challenge ahead of them, taking on the table-toppers in Hamilton, but expect the Brumbies to make a contest out of this game. They have the grunt in the forwards to slow down the Chiefs’ dynamic pack and their weapons in the backs will ensure that they score points. The Brumbies have won three-straight on the road and have covered six of their last seven away games.

Best: Brumbies +14.5 ($1.95)
Value: Chiefs 1-12 ($2.80)