Super Rugby Pacific Qualifying Finals | Tips & Preview

The Crusaders claimed second place in somewhat controversial fashion last week by beating the Brumbies 33-31 in Canberra. George Bell’s try with just minutes to play proved to be the match-winner, but there were questions around whether the try should have been awarded after an apparent knock-on in the lead-up was missed by the officials. However, the Crusaders were awarded the five points and then held out the Brumbies, as they put together one last-gasp attack, to win the game and lock up second place. It was a high-level, back-and-forth game and while the Crusaders generally looked the more dangerous with ball in hand, some inaccuracies at the breakdown and with their handling opened up plenty of opportunities for the hosts. Rivez Reihana was a constant threat at first receiver, while Sevu Reece and Christian Lio-Willie got involved often, with some damaging runs. Tom Christie put in another massive shift defensively, while Bell had a busy stint off the bench.

The Reds thrashed the Fijian Drua 52-7 last week to end their regular season on a high note and finish in fifth. Queensland were never under threat in the match, thanks to Lachie Anderson’s four-try haul in the first half, setting up a 33-0 halftime lead. The Drua were the first to score in the second 40, but their second yellow card of the game 10 minutes later saw the momentum swing back in favour of the Reds, as they ran in another three tries to close out the game in convincing fashion. The win was tainted by injuries to Harry Wilson, Tim Ryan and Harry McLaughlin-Phillips but Wilson and Ryan have bounced back to be fit for this knockout match, although the winger has been named on the bench in place of Filipo Daugunu. It was another electric performance from Queensland’s backs last week, with Anderson being the four-try hero and with Josh Flook, Hunter Paisami and Jock Campbell having dangerous moments. Almost as impressive was the hosts’ defence, as Joe Brial continued his excellent end to the season, and the pack took care of business at set piece to secure the win.

Their task gets a lot harder this week, as they head to Christchurch to take on a surging Crusaders team and this matchup does not suit Queensland. The set piece dominance and defensive prowess of the Crusaders’ pack will shut down the visitors’ forwards, leaving little possession and scoring opportunities for the Reds’ backs. I expect this game to get a little ugly come the end of the 80 minutes. The visitors are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and they lost in Christchurch 19-43 when the two teams faced off earlier this season.

Best: Crusaders -12.5 ($1.90)
Value: Power Plays — Codie Taylor Anytime Try Scorer & Crusaders Win by 11 – 30 ($4.00)

The Chiefs finished up the season as the deserving table-toppers, with last week’s 41-24 win over the Highlanders lifting their record to 11-3. That sets up a grand final rematch in the first round of the finals, with the Chiefs given the opportunity to get revenge for the loss in last year’s big dance. Their form couldn’t be much better, with five wins from their last six games, including last week’s thumping in Dunedin. Clayton McMillan’s men were in control for almost the entire contest, as Samipeni Finau finished off a long-range try six minutes into the game, before Tupou Vaa’i scored a double in the space of three minutes to make it a 19-0 Chiefs lead. The deficit was reduced to five points by halftime but a try to Xavier Roe less than a minute into the second stanza kept the hosts at bay, ensuring the visitors’ lead never really came under threat. Vaa’i’s hattrick was one of the highlights for the Chiefs and Etene Nanai-Seturo’s return from injury was an exciting one, with the wing providing plenty of explosive touches in his 40 minutes of action. He’ll come off the bench this week, as Emoni Narawa comes back into the starting lineup, making for an intimidating Chiefs team, especially on attack, where they averaged a whopping 39.2 points per game this season to lead the competition in points scored.

The Blues also ended their regular season on a high note to claim the last finals spot, dismantling the Waratahs 46-6 at Eden Park. Requiring a win to make the finals, the Aucklanders took care of business in a complete performance that saw them score seven tries to the Tahs’ zero and dominate in open play. The victory was built on the dominance of the forwards, who had it all their way at set piece and at the breakdown, while regularly shutting down the visitors’ attacks. That set up the backs to have some fun, with Mark Tele’a recording two tries in his return from injury and Beauden Barrett having a much improved outing after a sloppy night the week prior. Caleb Clarke, Rieko Ioane, AJ Lam and Corey Evans all had impactful runs and the likes of Josh Fusitu’a, Ricky Riccitelli, Dalton Papali’i and Laghlan McWhannell all rolled up their sleeves in a rock-solid forwards performance. Adrian Choat comes in for Anton Segner this weekend in the only change to the Blues’ 23, but they will need a special effort from their full squad if they are to keep their season alive in the Tron.

While it has been a somewhat ugly run to the finals for the Blues, their defence has been at the forefront of their 5-3 end to the season, conceding an average of just 19 points per game in that stretch and that is what will help keep them in the fight in what I expect to be a gruelling finals game. The Chiefs won’t have it all their way against this Blues team that has strong defenders in both its forwards and backs and the under is the play. The under is 6-2 in the Blues’ last eight games and they will slow this game down at any chance given.

Best: Under 53.5 ($1.90)
Value: Chiefs 1-12 ($2.70)

The Brumbies and the Hurricanes meet in the first round of the finals for the third time in four years after the ACT recorded another impressive regular season to finish in the top three. They will feel hard done by to not have finished in second, as referee James Doleman missed a knock-on in the phases leading up to the Crusaders’ match-winning try, with the Cantabrians’ 31-33 win meaning the Brumbies had to settle for a third-place finish. Stephen Larkham will also be ruing his team’s poor start to the game, which saw them fall behind 7-15 inside 15 minutes and then head into the sheds down 14-25, but as Rhys Van Nek and Andy Muirhead found their way over the chalk, the hosts tied the scores at 28-28, setting up a grandstand finish. Noah Lolesio knocked over a penalty goal to give the Brumbies a 31-28 lead with seven minutes to play, but the Crusaders worked their way back in front — in controversial fashion — to force the Brumbies to settle for third place. Rob Valetini was immense again for the hosts in another composed showing from the pack, who matched up well against an elite Crusaders forward pack. Van Nek and Muirhead were rewarded for a busy game with tries, but the prop will drop out of the side this week as skipper Allan Allaalatoa returns from injury. Tom Hooper and Nick Frost did what they do best on the defensive side of the ball and racked up tackle after tackle and they will need to be busy again on Saturday night.

The Hurricanes were at their rampant best in their 64-12 win over Moana Pasifika last week. Moana were entering off a 7-85 hiding from the Chiefs the week prior and some were expecting a much more resilient effort against the Wellingtonians, but the Canes showed no mercy in their performance, scoring 10 tries to Moana’s two and starving the visitors of genuine attacking opportunities. The hosts would have gotten a fright early on when Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa scored for Moana, but Jacob Devery and Devan Flanders hit back with two quick tries and the Canes were in control from that point on. Peter Umaga-Jensen was outstanding in contact, finishing with two tries, nine defenders beaten and three line breaks in less than an hour of play, while his midfield partner Billy Proctor had another slick game. With Ruben Love, Cam Roigard, Bailyn Sullivan and Fehi Fineanganofo, just to name a few, also finding some great form at this point of the season, the Canes’ backs have hit their stride at the right time. Up front, Du’Plessis Kirifi was a workhorse once more, Peter Lakai got through a mountain of work and Flanders had some strong carries. With Asafo Aumua and Caleb Delany returning in time for the finals, this Canes team is close to full-strength and with that, will present a real challenge to the hosts.

We saw the Hurricanes win in Canberra 35-29 just over a month ago and there is no reason why they can’t repeat those heroics on Saturday night. They have covered seven of their last 10 games and have the attacking punch to overwhelm this organised Brumbies outfit.

Best: Hurricanes +1.5 ($1.90)
Value: Hurricanes 1-12 ($3.00)