Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final | Tips & Preview

History
Saturday’s grand final showdown will mark the 52nd clash between the Crusaders and the Chiefs. The red and blacks have won 29 and lost 22, with no draws ever having been recorded. The Chiefs won both clashes between the two teams this season, first with a 49-24 victory in Round 2 before a 35-19 triumph in Christchurch just six weeks ago. This will be the second grand final between the two franchises, after the Crusaders came out on top in the 2023 GF with a 25-20 win.

Form
The Crusaders have been the form team of the competition to end the season, with nine wins from their last 10 games. That consistency helped them leapfrog the Chiefs into the #1 seed after the first round of the finals to earn hosting rights for Saturday’s big dance, and they showed just how tough to beat they can be at home in last week’s 21-14 semifinal victory. The Blues came to play, with a free-flowing first half seeing the scores locked up at 14-14 at the break. The scoreboard would go unchanged until the 71st minute, when Will Jordan – the Saders’ standout – dug his way over the line for what proved to be the match-winning try. The fullback was electric with almost every touch in a game where the Crusaders’ backs generally struggled to make a dent in the visitors’ defence. Up front, Ethan Blackadder and Christian Lio-Willie offered regular output on attack and defence, while George Bell was busy in his 27 minutes off the bench in a game where the pack struggled to build momentum.

The Chiefs will still be thanking their lucky stars for the change in competition format keeping their championship hopes alive after their Qualifying Round loss two weeks ago, but they made amends for that defeat with a fast-finishing 37-17 win over the Brumbies last week. The men from Canberra made it clear that they had come to play in the first half but four penalty goals off the boot of Damian McKenzie meant the Chiefs took a 19-12 lead into the sheds. The ACT then scored shortly after the break to cut the margin to two points, but it was all the hosts from there, scoring 18 unanswered points to end the game and book their spot in the grand final. McKenzie was one of the heroes, knocking over six penalty goals and two conversions for 22 points, while also attacking the line regularly from first five and recording a try-saving tackle. Emoni Narawa was at his best, with two tries and three line breaks, while Leroy Carter and Quinn Tupaea had some impactful carries. The pack was made to work hard and Luke Jacobson was the standout defensively, while Tupou Vaa’i and Naitoa Ah Kuoi were busy and impressive at the breakdown.

Teams
Crusaders: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Fletcher Newell, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Antonio Shalfoon, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 7 Tom Christie, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 9 Noah Hotham, 10 Rivez Reihana, 11 Macca Springer, 12 David Havili, 13 Braydon Ennor, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 George Bell, 17 George Bower, 18 Seb Calder, 19 Jamie Hannah, 20 Cullen Grace, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Dallas McLeod.

Chiefs: 1 Ollie Norris, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 3 George Dyer, 4 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 6 Samipeni Finau, 7 Luke Jacobson, 8 Wallace Sititi, 9 Cortez Ratima, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Leroy Carter, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 13 Daniel Rona, 14 Emoni Narawa, 15 Shaun Stevenson. Reserves: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Reuben O’Neill, 19 Jimmy Tupou, 20 Kalyum Boshier, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Etene Nanai-Seturo.

Tamaiti Williams makes his return from a knee injury to start in place of George Bower in the Crusaders’ only change to the starting pack, while Chay Fihaki will miss the final due to a head knock, seeing Macca Springer come in on the left wing and Sevu Reece switch to the right.

For the Chiefs, Clayton McMillan has not named any changes to the starting XV, while Aidan Ross and Etene Nanai-Seturo come onto the bench for Jared Proffit and Gideon Wrampling, respectively.

Stats That Matter

• The Crusaders are 10-6 ATS this season
• The Crusaders are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
• The Chiefs are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Crusaders
• The Chiefs are 3-2 in their last five games in Christchurch
• The Chiefs have covered six of their last eight matches
• The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS in their last 16 road games
• The under is 8-2 in the Crusaders’ last 10 games
• The under is 9-3 in the Chiefs’ last 12 road games

The Verdict
A blockbuster grand final is upon us, as the regular season’s two best teams face off. In yet another final being held in Christchurch, the Crusaders will be eager to add to their 14 Super Rugby titles and who would doubt their chances? With a 9-1 record in their last 10 games, they have been the best team in the back half of the competition and with a near-full-strength 23 ready for Saturday, they will feel good heading into this clash. The Chiefs had a hiccup in the Qualifying Round and recovered well last week, and their two big wins over the Crusaders in the regular season will provide them with plenty of encouragement, but these red and blacks are operating on a different level at the moment. I see the hosts having particular ascendancy in the tight five and with a tight, tense game likely, that will give the Crusaders a big advantage.

The Chiefs have more attacking punch in the backs and their overall experience advantage, especially in the halves, could prove to be important, but I expect the Crusaders to generate more scoring opportunities and thus go on to record another title.

Best: Crusaders ($2.00)
Next: Under 49.5 ($1.80)
Anytime Try Scorer: Will Jordan ($2.25)
Value: SGM — Crusaders / Under 49.5 ($3.44)