NRL Tips & Preview | Round 14

We were right on the money with both teams last week. The Knights lack of points meant that 21-30 total match points ($7.75) provided us with a big winner and while the Eagles thumped the Broncos 34-6. Sea Eagles 13+ ($5.00) was the value bet of the week but we could be against them here. Tom Trbojevic remains sidelined, but older brother Jake is back pushing Tevaga to the bench. For the home side, Kalyn Ponga returns at fullback but a 4-week suspension to Leo Thompson sees Brodie Jones move into the front row. Greg Marzhew could be a late inclusion as he was named on the extended bench.

Head To Head

The Sea Eagles have lost only 1 of the last 5 meetings but that defeat came at McDonald Jones Stadium where the Knights have won 4 of the last 6 clashes. The Knights have had trouble slowing down two Manly players in particular – Garrick and Olakau’atu. Garrick has scored at least one try in each of the last 3 meetings while Olakau’atu has grabbed a four pointer in 4 of his last 5 appearances against the Knights. The losing team has been held to 12 or fewer points in 6 of the last 9 battles.

Stats That Matter

There are several statistics that stick out. The Under is 6-0 in the Knights last 6 games and 10-0 in their last 10 games played at night. That lines up with the Sea Eagles 7-0 Under record in their last 7 games leading into this one and the Knights average of 32.3 total match points for the season is two converted tries short of the set total. Momentum has not been in the Sea Eagles vocabulary in the last year with a total of only 4 wins in their last 14 games following a win. Within those games, they are 0-8 at the line in their last 8 on the back of a win.

Prediction

As bad as the Knights attack has been this season, the Sea Eagles cannot be trusted in this spot. They were very impressive in their two most recent wins (26-10 over the Panthers and 24-6 against the Cowboys) but both of those victories were followed by defeats by a margin of 13+ points. Everything points towards a low scoring match making the Unders the best bet, but the Knights are good value to score an upset win. Schiller has a try in 4 of the Knights last 5 games at this ground so he will be going in the multi.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.87)
Value: Knights WIN ($2.85)
Same Game Multi: Knights +12.5, Under 52.5 points, Schiller Anytime Try Scorer ($4.39)

The Storm improved their phenomenal record following a loss with a 12-point win over the Titans while the Cowboys almost blew it when they hosted the Tigers. They led 32-6 with less than 20 minutes to go but conceded 22 unanswered points to eventually prevail 32-28. The duo of Grant and Coates will return for the home side with Loiero to start and Faalogo to drop out. The Cowboys are going with the same 17 but will need an 80-minute performance this week and not one that ends on the hour mark.

Head To Head

This is the first meeting between them at AAMI Park since 2019. They have had just the one regular season meeting for each of the last three seasons with all three taking place at Qld Country Bank Stadium. The Cowboys have capitalised on home ground advantage by winning the last three clashes but have been victorious in only 1 of their last 10 against the Storm as an away underdog. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and 5-0 in the last 5 hosted by the Storm. The attacking players have benefited from this with Nanai the standout having scored 4 tries in the last 3 clashes.

Stats That Matter

The Storm have a solid 10-2 record in their last 12 as a home favourite but have covered the line in only 50% of those games. The Cowboys have been a profitable play as a road underdog and have won 4 of the last 7 in this scenario. A 5-2 line record in those games highlights the degree they have outperformed the market, but they will need their defence to stand tall. Only 1 of the last 10 teams travelling to AAMI Park have scored 20+ points and with the Over hitting in 7 of the Storms’ last 8 at this venue, it tells us that their attack will be hard to stop.

Prediction

There are several factors to consider here. The Cowboys have allowed 26.2ppg this season and could be in trouble as the Storm have scored 30+ points in 7 of their last 8 games at AAMI Park. Their biggest threat out wide (Xavier Coates) also returns and we cannot forget Harry Grant. He was arguably the worst player on the field in Origin 1 and there is no better place to re-establish himself than against the NSW hooker on his own turf. This is a big line, so I am more inclined to stick with the total and be on the Overs. The Cowboys have been weak down the right edge of their defence which should see the duo of Howarth and Coates feature heavily.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Xavier Coates 2 or more tries ($2.90)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Howarth Anytime Try Scorer, Nanai Anytime Try Scorer ($10.07)

The Dragons climbed into the top 8 for the first time this season following a dominant win over the Knights and could have been significantly higher had it not been for numerous narrow defeats. The Dolphins were huge winners over the Bulldogs prior to the bye and the week off has provided some of their key players time to recover. The duo of Marshal-King and Plath have been named on the extended bench and are likely late inclusions. No Su’A for the Dragons means Luciano Leilua comes into the starting side.

Head To Head

This will be the 5th meeting between the two sides and if history is anything to go by, the Dolphins have a clear advantage. The home team is 4-0 in this series with the Dolphins two victories coming by a margin of 13+ points. Tabuai-Fidow has 4 tries in this matchup including a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season. Isaako has scored at least once in 3 of his 4 appearances for the Dolphins against the Red V with Liddle interestingly having scored twice against the Dolphins. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with no more than 38 total match points in each of those games.

Stats That Matter

The win over the Knights was the second time this season that the Dragons have won consecutive games, but we cannot ignore their 3-7 record both straight up and at the line in their last 10 games following a win. They have covered the line in their last three outings and are capable of causing an upset on the road as reflected by their 4-2 record in their last 6 as a road underdog. The Dolphins have made the time off work for them in the past and have won their last three games when coming off the bye. Farnworth has been on fire with a try in each of his last 6 games while the visitors will be glad to have Tuipulotu back as he has at least one in 6 of his last 7 appearances.

Prediction

Both teams are coming off outstanding wins but historically have struggled to compile extended win streaks. Defence has been a priority for both in recent weeks with the Dolphins holding their last three opponents to 13.3ppg while the Dragons are close to that mark at 15.7ppg. Expecting that to be the theme again with both teams to rely on their middles getting through a mountain of work. They will back the Overs approaching kick off so we will wait until then to get the best price/line on the Unders.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($2.00)
Value: 31-40 Total Match Points ($4.60)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 Either Team By Less Than 12.5, Isaako Anytime Try Scorer, Tuipulotu Anytime Try Scorer ($5.66)

Consistency is the one factor that currently separates these two teams. The Warriors put together another 80-minute performance last week that saw them overcome the Rabbitohs and solidify their spot in the top 4. In contrast, the Sharks were impressive winners over the Storm in Round 11 but failed to apply themselves the following week and were smashed 42-16 by a shorthanded Roosters side. The bye has given them time to rectify this with Katoa making a timely return to replace Mulitalo (suspended). The Warriors were dealt a massive blow with Mitch Barnett ruled out for the season (ACL) and he will he replaced by Jackson Ford with Halasima to start as Capewell covers Berry in the centres (hamstring).

Head To Head

There have been some very tight battles between them in recent seasons with the two teams splitting the last 8 meetings. The margin of victory has been no more than 8 points in 6 of the last 9 clashes with 3 of the last 4 decided by 4 or fewer points. The Sharks have won 6 of the last 9 battles as a home favourite and have rarely been outplayed by the Warriors at home. The visitors have come away with the points in only 5 of the last 14 as the away team in the series and 4 of those wins have been by a margin of 1-12. Watene-Zelezniak opened the scoring for the Warriors last week and is likely to feature again as he has 12 career tries against the Sharks – the most against any team in the NRL. That includes 8 tries across the last 7 battles between the two teams.

Stats That Matter

The Sharks have won and covered the line in their last 3 home games but beware the Warriors as they have won their last 3 away games to go with a 6-1 line record in their last 7 as an away underdog. The Under has held on in 67% of Sharks home games in the last year including 5 of their last 6. Most importantly, the Under is 9-3 in the Sharks last 12 following a loss which tells us that they will focus/rely on defence in this one. The outsider has been successful at the line in the last 5 games played at Sharks Stadium which is good news for the visitors.

Prediction

The Under has grabbed the money in two thirds of Sharks home games this season with an average of 40.7 total match points in those games. Moreover, the Under is 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 and we get a great refereeing appointment with Peter Gough. There have been 46 or fewer points in the last 9 matches that he has officiated and 28 total match points in the most recent Warriors game that he oversaw.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($7.75)
Same Game Multi: Warriors +12.5, Watene Zelezniak Anytime Try Scorer, Under 53.5 points ($4.20)

Pressure continues to intensify at Broncos headquarters after another terrible performance. They were outplayed in a 34-6 loss by the Sea Eagles – their fourth straight loss and 6th in their last 7 games. Reece Walsh makes his long-awaited return and has been given the task of saviour as they have again opened as overwhelming favourites. The Titans were respectable in a loss to the Storm which has led to a string of changes. AJ Brimson is a likely late inclusion after being named 18th man which could cause a complete reshuffle.

Head To Head

The Titans have always been viewed as the little brother in this matchup, but they have won and covered the line in the last 3 meetings. This has generally been a high scoring matchup with the Over hitting in 8 of the last 12 hosted by the Broncos. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 clashes overall with 59+ total match points in the matches where the Over has hit. There has been plenty of try scorers as a result with Mam scoring a try in 3 of the last 4 meetings while Khan-Pereira has scored in four straight games against the Broncos with 5 tries in total.

Stats That Matter

We have touched on the Broncos being the worst team to back and the numbers are getting worse for them. Last week’s loss means they have now covered the line in only 3 of their last 19 matches which is accompanied by a 32% win rate as the betting favourite. They have lost 5 of their last 8 games as a home favourite and have covered the line only once in those games. If that is not bad enough, they have conceded 29.5ppg during their current four-game losing streak.

Prediction

The Broncos giving away a double-digit start in this one is madness. They have been successful at the line in only 16% of games in the last year and defensively have rarely been able to shut their opponents down. The Titans have won the last three meetings and have averaged 33.3ppg in those matches. With a big total predicted, this is the ideal game to back 4-5 players in a try scorer multi.

Tips

Best Bet: Titans +10.5 ($1.90)
Value: 61 Points or More ($3.80)
Same Game Multi: Khan-Pereira Anytime Try Scorer, Walsh Anytime Try Scorer, Mam Anytime Try Scorer, Sami Anytime Try Scorer ($17.19)

The Raiders have shown a tremendous level of resilience this season and are proving to be the toughest team to play. They trailed multiple times against the Roosters last week but were able to wear them down midway through the second half. The Rabbitohs faced a similar proposition against the Warriors but not even some Latrell Mitchell magic was enough to get them over the line. With Cody Walker and Wighton returning after long layoffs, we are about to find out what the Rabbitohs ceiling is. The hosts get Fogarty and Starling back which will make them even harder to beat.

Head To Head

With wins in 5 of the last 6 meetings including each of the last three, the Raiders have enjoyed extended success in this matchup. They have won 4 of the last 5 as the betting favourite which includes a 3-1 record in the last 4 as the home team. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings hosted by the Raiders with an average of 36.3 total match points in the last 6 clashes played at GIO Stadium. Alex Johnston scored a hat-trick last week and is likely to find the line again as he has scored 5 tries in his last 4 games against the Raiders with the Rabbitohs claiming victory in only one of those matches.

Stats That Matter

The lines that the Raiders are required to cover are getting bigger with the market starting to recognise them as a genuine title threat. They have won and covered the line in 5 of their last 7 as the betting elect with a 68% success rate at the line across all games played in the last year. The Rabbitohs are proving to be tough under Wayne Bennett but have been victorious in only 1 of their last 8 as an away underdog. A 2-6 line record in those games is further cause for concern but they will try to keep it tight with the Under holding on in 9 straight away games.

Prediction

Any success the Bunnies have had this season has been on the back of their defence. They were not afforded the opportunity to win the ruck last week with the referee consistently calling held early – allowing the Warriors to gain ruck speed. Am concerned there will be a repeat here as there have been 52+ total match points in 5 of the last 6 games that Todd Smith has officiated. With this in mind, have the Raiders covering the line.

Tips

Best Bet: Raiders -8.5 ($2.00)
Value: Raiders to Win by 11-20 ($3.50)
Same Game Multi: Savage Anytime Try Scorer, Young Anytime Try Scorer, Johnston Anytime Try Scorer ($6.35)

The Premiers are off the bottom of the ladder with a single win helping them climb from 17th to 14th. They can climb at least one more spot here as the Tigers are a single point above them. It was a case of too little too late for Benjo Marshall’s side last week as they fell behind 32-6 with less than a quarter of the game remaining. Four consecutive tries made it close, but they cannot afford another slow start here. The Panthers have been able to name the same 17 but that is not the case for the Tigers with Twal (concussion) forcing a shift that includes Sukkar coming into the starting side.

Head To Head

This is the first of two meetings they are scheduled to have in the regular season and the first time since 2021. The Panthers may have been the dominant force in the NRL for 5+ years, but points have been hard to come by in this series. The Under is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings including 5-0 in the last 5 hosted by the Tigers. The last two clashes between them at this ground have produced 34 and 31 total match points respectively. Turuva scored a double for the Panthers last time these two sides met and has a chance to score against his former club here.

Stats That Matter

The Panthers 60% win rate in away games in the last year is below par for a team of their quality and they have covered the line in 5 of 15 games following a win during that stretch. The Tigers have posted a 6-2 line record in their last 8 games as a home underdog while the Panthers are 0-6 at the line in their last 6 at this venue when coming off a win. Brian To’o has scored a try in his last 3 appearances at CommBank Stadium and is in form after having scored for the Blues and crossing to seal the contest against the Eels last week.

Prediction

With all their Origin players backing up last week I was expecting more from the Panthers. They may have won but their attack lacked spark, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to wear teams down physically with the talent pool being more evenly spread across the competition. They have not done a good job covering big lines, but we will be able to rely on them to be defensively sound – especially against a Tigers side that has averaged 18.8ppg in its last five.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Neither Team To Score 20+ Points ($6.50)
Same Game Multi: To’o Anytime Try Scorer, Turuva Anytime Try Scorer, Under 55.5 points ($6.05)

We wrap up Round 14 with one of the oldest rivalries in rugby league – the Dogs versus the Eels. This is the 4th time that the two sides meet on the King’s Birthday and the big talking point is the Bulldogs recruit Lachlan Galvin. They have named him on the extended bench in an attempt to avoid the media circus, but you can bet your bottom dollar that he will be a late inclusion. Kiraz also returns in a further boost for the competition leaders with the Eels getting one of their own regulars back in Will Penisini.

Head To Head

The Eels put up a brave fight in a 16-8 loss to the Bulldogs in Round 3 earlier this year but have come a long way since that game. The Bulldogs have now won the last two clashes which ended a dominant Eels run of 8 wins in the 9 prior battles. This matchup historically has an Origin feel about it with the referees putting the whistle in the pocket. The Under is 20-5 in the last 25 meetings and there has been no more than 40 total match points in each of the last three clashes. Will Penisini has been an unlikely source of points for the Eels with a try of his last 7 appearances against the Bulldogs.

Stats That Matter

Wins in 9 of their last 13 home games is a solid record for the Bulldogs but they have posted a 4-7 line record in their last 11 as a home fav. The Eels have won only 3 of their last 11 as a road underdog but have made inroads by covering the line in 3 of their last 4 away games. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 Eels games with an average of 36.8 total match points in those fixtures. This lines up with a long history of Unders games in this series, but a low scoring game may not stop former Bulldog Josh Ado-Carr as he has scored at least once in each of his last 5 games against the Bulldogs.

Prediction

More than 45,000 were in attendance for the corresponding fixture last season and all reports suggest they will eclipse that number by a big margin. The Bulldogs defence was indestructible early in the season, but they have conceded 18+ in each of their last 5 games. Don’t think the Eels have more than that in them but they may not have to. Assuming Galvin comes into the side, it will likely take them time to form combinations and develop an understanding in attack. The Eels were excellent from an effort perspective last week and have two things going for them – Moses kicking game and Lomax being a constant threat. The Eels are good value to score an upset win.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Eels WIN ($2.95)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 Either Team By Less Than 12.5, Penisini Anytime Try Scorer, Under 52.5 Points ($9.57)