We will a new French Open champion after world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka posted a crushing win over three-time defending champion Iga Swiatek. The 6-0 bagel in the third and deciding set was on the cards as Sabalenka was intent on hitting a clean winner with almost every single shot. Meanwhile, Gauff took full advantage of a favourable draw to end the fairytale run of Lois Boisson. The Frenchwoman defeated Andreeva less than 24 hours before but the absence of a day off due to tournament scheduling made it very difficult for her to recover. Nevertheless, Gauff broke serve 6 times and won 70% of her 2nd serve points which will provide her with some confidence for the final.
There has been nothing between Sabalenka and Gauff in the past. The H2H reads 5-5 with their most recent meeting coming less than a month in Madrid. Sabalenka was a 6-3 7-6 winner on that occasion in a match where she managed to win 67% of 2nd serve points. As mentioned multiple times in the last fortnight, the courts in Paris are significantly slower than Madrid which makes it harder to dominate on serve. This will be their third battle a Grand Slam level. Gauff won the US Open final in 2023 with Sabalenka gaining some revenge in the semi’s of the Australian Open months later.
Both women have thrown in an alarming number of double faults. They had 33 double faults between them in a single match (Toronto 2022) so being up a break will count for very little. In the history of their H2H, both have won fewer than 45% of 2nd serve points which suggests they will trade breaks of serve throughout the match. Tactically, I am expecting Sabalenka to be ultra-aggressive. This was her game plan against Swiatek in the early stages but she will miss as Gauff will rely on her athleticism to make back as many balls as possible. Can see this one going the distance and after making Gauff my best be pre-tournament, I will be sticking with her here.
Next Best: Gauff WIN ($2.55)
Set Betting: Sets Gauff 2-1 ($5.50)
Value Bet: 1st Set Over 10.5 games ($3.90)