We are getting into the business end of the tournament and you cannot discount anyone that has made it this far.
The fairy tale of Frenchwoman Boisson continued but she will have to play the match of her life to beat Pegula who is one of four American women in action on Day 9.
Dominant is the best word to describe Alexandrova’s week in Paris with no more than two games dropped in 5 of the 6 sets played. That is about to change as Gauff has had an enormous two months on clay with Paolini and Sabalenka the only two women to have beaten her. The American has won 3 of the 4 previous meetings including the last two in straight sets. Alexandrova has broken serve just the three times across the last four sets played compared to 7 for Gauff. Backing Gauff to cover the games handicap.
Putintseva’s made almost 80% of first serves against Andreeva but could not prevent the youngster from breaking serve at win. Andreeva won 85% of 2nd serve return points which highlights her dominance from the baseline. She may not be as effective in this one as Kasatkina 57% of 2nd serve points in a straight sets win over Badosa and won the only prior meeting between them. That match took place last October with Kasatkina posting a 6-0 4-6 6-4 victory. Andreeva is in red-hot form but has a 1-3 record in 4h Round matches at the majors. Have this one going the distance.
Am surprised to see Keys this short in betting as she faces a comparable opponent in Baptiste. There are numerous similarities in their respective games which are centred around a big first serve and heavy groundstrokes. The numbers agree as both have won almost 80% of 1st serve points and 55% of 2nd serve points for the tournament. Keys has won 87% of service games for the tournament with Baptiste hit on her heels (84%). Breaks will be hard to come by. Overs.
Value Bet: 1st Set Total Games Over 10.5 ($4.00)
You can be excused for asking who is Lois Boisson as this is the Frenchwoman’s Grand Slam debut. She has been grinding away on the ITF and Challenger circuit but has taken her opportunity with open arms. The upset win over Mertens in the opening round allowed her to take the seeded players path but there will be no more gimmies as she now faces a very accomplished player in Pegula. The American has been guilty of some poor losses in the past but there can be NO excuses here. She has been handed a dream path into the second week and I am expecting her to be completely dominant. It is worth noting that Boisson was bageled in the second set of her last match so we know that she can be erratic.