We could not have asked for a better semi final matchup with the world number 1 (Sabalenka) taking on Swiatek – the three-time defending champion and four-time winner of this event. There is more than just victory on the line here. Swiatek has not won a title since lifting the trophy a year ago while Sabalenka is aiming to make her first final in Paris and solidify her position as the best player on the plane.
In most of her prior title winning runs here Swiatek has been completely dominant with a streak of bagels and matches where she has barely dropped any games. That has not been the case this time around. Despite only dropping the one set, she has lost 3+ games in 5 of the last 6 sets played. She has served 11 double faults across the last two matches alone and has been limited to winning 50% or fewer of 2nd serve points in those two matches.
Sabalenka on the other hand has utilised her serve to great effect. She has won at least 50% of 2nd serve points in all 5 matches played and a very impressive 68% of those points in her quarter final win over Zheng. The most noticeable difference in the Sabalenka game this time around is the variety. She has incorporate the slice and the drop shot to great effect with the later certain to play a part in this match.
The H2H reads 8-4 in the favour of Swiatek but their most recent battle was a 6-3 6-3 win for Sabalenka. Svitolina was up a break in the second set against Swiatek and had it been for a slightly higher level of consistency, would have forced a deciding set. At this stage, no woman on the WTA Tour hits with more power and consistency than Sabalenka. She is multiple levels above Swiatek at this point in time and had Swiatek not been a four-time winner here, Sabalenka would be as short as $1.50 in H2H betting. Swiatek is not the same player as she was 12 months ago and for that reason I have Sabalenka winning in straight sets!
Set Betting: Sabalenka 2-0 ($2.63)
Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score After 4 games – Sabalenka 4-0 ($15)
Frenchwoman Lois Boisson proved that her win over Pegula in the 4th Round was no fluke. She was down a break and saved multiple set points in the first set against Andreeva before taking it out with a series of huge forehands. From that point on, the crowd got louder and nerves got the better of Andreeva. Despite playing under a closed roof, Andreeva had 9 double faults and we could see more off the racquet of her upcoming opponent.
Gauff was well below her best in the opening two sets against Madison Keys and 10 double faults is cause for concern. She has 31 doubles for the tournament and in her previous match won only 34% of 2nd serve points. A repeat of that brings a Boisson win into calculation but the Frenchwoman will have to adjust from her previous matches. Gauff is the best mover on the WTA Tour meaning she will find it more difficult to hit through her than she did with Pegula and Andreeva.
In comparison, Gauff almost had the ideal preparation for this match as Keys (previous opponent) and Boisson have similar game styles which are centred around a heavy forehand. Gauff did an excellent job of getting the ball into the Keys backhand in the latter stages of the match which suggests that Boisson will have to work hard to run around her backhand throughout the match. Boisson has spent almost three hours longer on court and this is all foreign territory for her. The crowd will carry her a long way but the experience of Gauff will she her prevail in three sets.
Value Bet: Gauff 2-1 ($4.20)