Prior to a ball being struck in Paris, this is the final we all wanted and predicted. At present, he duo of Sinner and Alcaraz are the top two players in the world by a big margin. They have combined to win the last 5 Grand Slams but despite having faced off 12 times in the past, this is the first meeting between them in a Grand Slam final. It certainly will not be the last and the outcome of this could give the winner a significant edge moving forward. Alcaraz is 4-0 in major finals while Sinner is 3-0 which means one of them will be tasting defeat for the first time.
Sinner has been the dominant force in the last 12-18 months but the one puzzle he has not been able to solve is Alcaraz. The H2H reads 8-4 in the Spaniard’s favour but more importantly, Alcaraz has won the last four battles between them on the ATP Tour. That includes victory in their last two clashes on clay. They met in the semi finals of the French Open last year with Alcaraz winning a five set thriller and he was also victorious in straight sets in the final of Rome just weeks ago. There recent battles have been close with 3 of the last 5 sets they have played being decided by a tiebreaker.
The Italian is yet to drop a single set in the tournament and that includes a straight sets win over Djokovic in the semi finals. He has been a brick wall from the back of the court and that will not change here. Alcaraz on the other hand has had multiple lapses in concentration. He was spraying balls all over the place in the first two sets against Musetti until he finally found his range and blew the contest wide open with 15 minutes of perfect tennis. Notably dropped a set against Marozsan and Dzumhur so you can be assured that he will pay the price for any lapses against Sinner.
One thing we have learned and heard from Alcaraz himself is that he is always laser focused when he takes on Sinner. He has won at least 55% of 2nd serve points across their last two meetings which reveals just how comfortable he is in baseline exchanges against Sinner. Alcaraz has the edge in power, variety and shot-making ability while Sinner is the model of consistency. Expecting 4-5 tight sets but Alcaraz will again show us that he is the most talented player on tour.
Next Best Bet: Alcaraz WIN ($1.85)
Value Bet: Total Sets – 5 Sets ($3.10)