No surprises in the bottom half of the draw with the two favourites from each quarter progressing. Musetti almost got himself defaulted in the match against Tiafoe when he kicked a ball in frustration that hit one of the lines judges on the chest. H escaped with a warning and go on to beat the American in four sets. Meanwhile, Alcaraz changed gears and produced his best tennis against Tommy Paul. It was his best performance of the tournament as the 6-0 6-1 6-4 score line would suggest. The defending champion won 87% of points on serve, did not face a single break point and was able to convert 6 break opportunities.
Musetti will be ecstatic to have made the final four here but I question whether he believes that he can beat Alcaraz on clay in a best of five sets match – especially after having lost to him twice already leading into the tournament in Monte Carlo and Rome. He did manage to win in the opening set in Monte Carlo bit then lost 12 of the next 13 games. On home soil in Rome, he was more competitive but won only 27% of second serve points which is a massive concern.
The Overall H2H reads 6-1 to Alcaraz with the defending champion having won the last five meetings. Musetti is in career-best form but when the pair met her two years ago it wasn’t close. Alcaraz won 6-3 6-2 6-2 and has dropped more than three games in only 2 of the last 12 sets they have contested. Expecting another dominant display for Carlos.
Next Best Bet: Set 1 Total Games Under 8.5 ($2.90)
Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score – Alcaraz 6-1 ($7.75)
Their respective quarter final matches went according to plan. Sinner dismantled Bublik while Djokovic relied on his big match experience and point construction to get the better of Zverev in four sets. As a result we get a mouth-watering semi final but it is unlikely to live up to the hype. The H2H reads 4-4 with Djokovic winning the only previous meeting on clay back in 2021 but it has been one way traffic in the last 12-18 months between them.
Sinner has won the last three meetings including a dominant win at the Australian Open last year. Don’t be fooled by Djokovic winning a set in that match as he failed to generate a single break point opportunity and relied on a tiebreaker to claim a set. On clay, he would need to break the Sinner serve 5+ times to be any chance of winning the match and that is NOT happening. The world number 1 has dropped serve just two times for the entire tournament and generated 28 breaks in just 15 sets played.
At Grand Slam level there has been a changing of the guard with the dup of Sinner and Alcaraz taking over. The biggest issue for Novak in this match is that Sinner is effectively a younger version of the Serbian – except he possesses more power from both wings on the baseline. Experience and court craft is not enough to beat Sinner. You must hit through him and ge him off balance – something that only Alcaraz has been able to do in the last year. Not only will Sinner win, but he will do so in straight sets!
Set Betting: sinner 3-0 ($2.30)
Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score After 4 games – Sinner 3-1 ($3.10)