It has taken almost 10 days but we finally get a marquee matchup with Djokovic taking on Zverev.
Not that he needs any favours but the path for the world number 1 (Sinner) was made even easier overnight when Alexander Bublik upset Jack Draper to make his first even Grand Slam quarter final.
This is the one match on everybody’s lips heading into Day 11. Djokovic is seeking a 25th Grand Slam title while Zverev is still trying to break his maiden. It has been a big 12 months for the German with runner-up finishes at the French Open and Australian Open. The issue is that the losses to Alcaraz and Sinner have had an impact on his level of belief. He is now 0-3 in Grand Slam finals and continues to struggle against the biggest names in tennis in the best of five sets format. Djokovic holds a 8-5 advantage in the H2H but more importantly has won 3 of the 4 meetings between them at the majors. Zverev’s only win came at the Australian Open this year when Djokovic retired at the end of the first set. Cannot trust Zverev against the greatest champion in Grand Slam history and am shocked that Djokovic is not shorter in the market. He has improved with every match this week and dismantled Norrie in the 4th round. Djokovic knows how to win big matches!
Value Bet: Sets Djokovic 3-1 ($4.80)
Bublik’s unlikely run continued with a second win over a top 10 player in the tournament. He dropped the opening set in both of those matches but when looking at tennis over the last two decades, it is hard to recognise De Minaur and Draper as genuine top 10 players. Bublik had never made it beyond the 2nd round here in 6 prior attempts which makes his run even more incredible. He will need to do more than run in this match as Sinner has been unstoppable. Rublev who is recognised as one of the hardest hitters on tour was broken 5 times and managed to win only 29% of 2nd serve points. We are yet to see anybody hit through Sinner and if there is one thing we know about Bublik, it is that he can become easily frustrated. He has 34 double faults for the tournament which included 12 in the win over De Minaur. It is a clear tactic of his to be aggressive on serve and end points on his terms. In the last 12-18 months only one man has been able to do that against Sinner and his name is Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner has been incredibly fast out of the blocks in his last two matches winning the first 5 games in each!
Value Bet: Set 1 Score After 2 games – Sinner 2-0 ($2.70)