There was always going to be at least one unknown from the bottom half of the draw and that person is Frances Tiafoe.
The American now takes on one of the form players on clay this season (Musetti) with the winner almost certain to face the defending champion in the semi finals.
The Italian has been in scintillating form on the red dirt this season and his win over Rune further solidified this. He has opened a firm favourite as a result for this one but it would be wrong of us to write off Tiafoe. The American has blasted his way into the quarters and is yet to drop a single set! Tiafoe has won the last two meetings between the pair and holds a 4-3 edge in their lifetime H2H. On clay it is 2-1 in the favour of Musetti but Tiafoe did win a set in both of those defeats. Tiafoe has been playing on the front foot and this is the type of aggressive style that is rewarded – especially against a player with a single-handed backhand. Expecting him to attack the Musetti backhand and for him to be rewarded doing it. We could have a 5 set thriller on our hands.
Value Bet: Sets Musetti 3-2
Alcaraz has dropped a set in each of his last three matches and despite never being in danger, the defending champion hasn’t exactly been dominant. He is only three matches away from defending his title and will start a very short favourite here and in the semi finals if he progresses. The Spaniard has won 4 of the 6 meetings in this series with their only meeting on clay coming at the Olympics last year – ironically on this court. It was closer than expected with Alcaraz prevailing 6-3 7-6. Paul was up 5-2 in the second set but was broken when trying to serve it out. They also met at the same stage of Wimbledon with the American winning the opening set before Alcaraz found his best tennis. Based on what we have seen so far, Alcaraz will have at least one lapse in concentration which will allow Paul to win a set or at least get to a tiebreaker.
Next Best Bet: Set 1 Total Games – 11 or more
Value Bet: Sets Alcaraz 3-1