The Saints ended a 3-game losing streak with a win over the Demons in Round 12 and had plenty of time to prepare for the Bulldogs courtesy of the bye last week. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs tailed at every break in a 22-point loss to the Hawks and have now lost 3 of their last 4. The Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series – all games which have been played at Marvel Stadium. They have won 7 of their last 9 following a loss with a 67% success rate at the line in those games. The Over has hit in 6 of those games and is also 4-0 in their last 4 away games. The Saints have conceded the opening goal in their last 3 games and are the worst second quarter team in the AFL. It sets the stage for a dominant Bulldogs win.
The Hawks got their season back on track with a win over the Bulldogs but must now contend with a red-hot Crows side that has won 5 of its last 6. The bookies can barely split them with the Hawks opening the slightest of favourites. They have won 8 of their last 9 home games and have successfully covered the line in 6 of their previous 8 as a home favourite. In comparison, the Crows have won only 1 of their last 8 as an away outsider and are facing a third consecutive loss in this series. The Hawks have covered the line in 13 of their last 17 following a win and have held their last three opponents o a mere 55.3ppg. The Under is 3-0 in their last 3 as a result which lines up nicely with the Crows 5-0 Under record in their last 5 away games.
Inaccuracy in front of goal proved costly for the Lions last week. They led by 18 points leading into the 4th quarter against the Hawks but failed to kick a single goal (0.8) in the final terms. They have won 3 of their last 4 following a loss but have a terrible record at the line. They have covered the line in only 2 of their last 12 as a home favourite and 1 of their previous 6 as a home favourite in this matchup. The Giants have won and covered the line in their last two away games and a low scoring contest would increase their chances of extending that streak. The Under is 3-0 in the Lions last 3 and has held on in 83% of their home games played in the last year.
A poor first term cost the Bombers dearly last week. They trailed to Blues by 37 at the first break but despite winning the next three quarters fell 8 points short. The Bombers are seeking a 5th straight win at home but will have to overcome a very poor recent record in this series. Not only have the Cats have won the last 7 meetings but they have also covered the line in all 7 of those matches – many as an overwhelming favourite. The average winning margin across those games is 50.7 points with each victory coming by 28 points or more. The Under is 6-0 in the Bombers last 6 but slowing down the Cats has been a tough task this season. They have averaged 98.1ppg in 2025 and have tallied 100+ points in 4 of their last 5.
The Kangaroos pulled 8 points clear of the bottom of the ladder but were aided by the Eagles who converted only 1 of their first 9 scoring shots into goals and kicked 6.16 for the match. This is not the time to put any trust in the Roos as they have lost their last 5 following a win. The Dockers won three in a row prior to last week’s bye in a stretch where they have allowed just 58.7ppg. The Under is 3-0 in their last 3 and 5-0 in the Kangaroos last 5 which suggests that points will be hard to come by. This is despite the Kangaroos having the second best conversion rate (57.7%) in the competition. Any regression in that department spells trouble as does their first quarter rating this season where they have trailed at the first break in 10 of 12 games played.
The Power took advantage of the bye and used the extra time to prepare for a win over the Giants – ending a four game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Demons will have to pick themselves up following a gut-wrenching one point loss to the Pies on the King’s Birthday. The Demons have won only 5 of their last 14 following a loss but have come away with the points in 3 of their last 4 against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval. The Power have won 5 of their last 7 as a home favourite but in what looms as a low-scoring clash., the margin of error is minimal for both teams. The Under has held on in 12 of the last 14 meetings and in each of the Power’s last 5 games leading into this one. There has been an average of 153.2 total match points in those games.
We may only be at the midway point of the season but a loss to the Kangaroos last week means that the Eagles are facing a second wooden spoon in three seasons. The Blues held on for a narrow win over the Bombers and are perfectly placed to start climbing the ladder. They are 5-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 against the Eagles in a stretch of games that they have averaged a whipping 125.6 points. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 6 battles hosted by the Eagles and has also hit in 70% of Eagles home games played in the last year. Last week the Blues delivered by winning the opening term by a big margin and are likely to repeat that here as the Eagles have trailed at the first break in 77% of games played this season.