UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 18 May

5-0 in the UFC and 17-0 overall, things have been going swimmingly for Ecuador’s Michael Morales. He only competed once in 2024 but made it a good one, putting away Neil Magny in the first round of what was looking to be a tepid affair.

To say Morales has been surging through his career would be an understatement, as he has essentially dominated the vast majority of his opposition. Morales is eye-catching in multiple way; a heavy-handed striker with long arms, he has the kind of frame, power, and technical proficiency to terrify.

Morales is only 25-years-old and while that works in his favor overall, he has shown some lapses in focus. Morales does well when fighting at his own pace at his preferred range but lacks urgency to change the tempo if his opponents want to lead the dance.

Morales does well adjusting to what his opponents throw at him but he has been kept close in numbers by inferior fighters simply due to not pressing advantages as hard as he could. When he lets his hands go and punishes his foes at range like he should, Morales looks like a future contender waiting for a breakout.

How Morales approaches UFC Fight Night 256 will be critical, as he faces a huge step up in opposition to take on Gilbert Burns. A longtime contender and accomplished Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu competitor, Burns is in the final stages of his career but happy to play the role of gate-keeping spoiler.

Burns is on a three-fight losing streak but the names Muhammad, Della Maddalena, and Brady are nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, Burns made a great account of himself against the current champion Jack Della Maddalena, leading on the scorecards at the time of the third-round stoppage.

In his prime, Burns had a bit of everything to offer. Power was distributed on the feet via big hooks, takedowns grew in effectiveness to a surprising degree, and every grappling exchange saw Burns flash the brilliance that earned him a multitude of competitive medals.

Today, Burns is a bit less dynamic and a good deal less explosive. Though campaigning at welterweight was ultimately the right move, Burns is still undersized for the division; on multiple occasions, he has found himself worn down and beaten up down the stretch.

Burns’ relevancy as a grappling threat is worth noting but the timing of this bout works against Burns. Pushing a pace, shooting for takedowns, and asserting an offensive game plan is what Burns needs to take Morales out of his comfort zone and tip this fight to a winnable degree. Recent appearances challenge the idea Burns can dictate the tempo of this bout for any extended time.

Longer, stronger, and fresher, Michael Morales should be able to keep things on the feet. There’s a surprising amount of speed left in Burns but less than ever, with that statement made truer as minutes tick on.

The first round will be his best but I doubt Burns can maintain consistency down the stretch. Look for Morales to start rolling downhill, stuffing takedowns, and making Burns look his age to close the show at UFC Fight Night 256.

1-0-1 in the UFC and 1-1 on Dana White’s Contender Series, Rodolfo Bellato hasn’t yet tasted defeat in the premiere organization but certainly hasn’t had an easy go of it. His most recent appearance saw him persevere through a number of near-finishes to scrape out a draw against Jimmy Crute.

This wasn’t the first time Bellato has had to come back from a deficit. He was also dropped and battered by Ihor Potieria before eventually ending the fight in the second round.

The chaotic nature of Bellato’s fights have become a recurring trend and not just one inside the Octagon. Bellato is an offense-minded fighter always seeking the finish, but that intensity often puts him in harm’s way.

Interestingly, Bellato has two losses on record but only to a single man. Fellow UFC contender Vitor Petrino beat him twice, although the most recent of which came in 2022. Since, both have found success in the organization as plucky, if brutish fighters

Bellato’s own finishing ability cannot be discounted and as he enters a fight against fellow finisher Paul Craig, it stands to reason this fight will not need the scorecards. Bellato finds himself favored over the infamous Scotsman but will need to stay sharp if he hopes to dispatch Craig without falling into a trap.

UFC Fight Night 256 will be Paul Craig’s return to light heavyweight and a welcome one, at that. After a three-fight campaign at middleweight that saw Craig go win-less, the 6’3” veteran rightfully determined he has his best chance in his typical division.

Craig is well-known at this point in his career as a firecracker of sorts. Engaged for too long, he’ll catch people by surprise and can do a lot of damage. A disciplined approach yields the best results, as Craig thrives in chaos but has consistently failed to assert his own game.

Craig is a remarkably dangerous grappler with lightning quick submission skills, but he lacks in striking and wrestling in a serious way. Through he is developing a passable striking philosophy built around his length, Craig’s durability and overall strength leave something to be desired.

That said, Craig is still a deadly fighter if he can lure opponents into grappling exchanges. He is not a standout wrestler but has shown some competency in the clinch – an area where Bellato has struggled in the past.

At full strength and in a must-win situation, I expect Craig to attempt pushing his advantages sooner rather than later. If he can initiate a clinch without getting bombed, he may be able to thread the needle, topple Bellato, and exploit a dramatic gap on the ground.

A 2-0 start to his UFC career is exactly what Mairon Santos desired but a closer look at the results cast a bit of doubt. Santos was in action only two months ago picking up split decision over Francis Marshall but the verdict was a contentious one.

Staying active but competing up a division, this weekend will represent Santos’ first bout at lightweight in about four years. The move is both unsurprising and somewhat welcome though, as Santos has competed as low as flyweight and as heavy as welterweight.

Santos is all business inside the cage and he’s developed into a rather savvy practitioner. Though only 24-years-old, Santos is accurate and quick when he lets his strikes go. Striking is his first and dominant thought, but he has come under criticism for his patience in execution.

Make no mistake, Santos is a tight striker who will surely grow into one of the best in the division. But Santos has a tendency to pick his spots a bit too carefully. He lacks devastating punching power, so the lack of consistency in his offense have led to several close rounds throughout his career.

UFC Fight Night 256 will be the biggest step up in Mairon Santos’ career, and he will need to stay busy if he hopes to keep ahead of Sodiq Yusuff. Born in Nigeria but fighting out of the United States, Yusuff is on a two-fight skid but feels confident heading into a critical match-up.

The stretch of losses may be rough to look at but they’re no shame. Yusuff made a solid account of himself in a five round effort against Edson Barboza, and a sadly short-lived attempt on Diego Lopes has aged reasonably well.

At 31-years-old, Yusuff has yet to see the best of his career but needs a win this weekend to rebound. Though the odds go against him at UFC Fight Night 256, the night is exceptionally winnable for the veteran.

Yusuff is a deceptively refined striker with a very sharp kicking game. His Muay Thai as a whole has picked up significantly in recent years; a whole piece could be written on the swath of techniques and subtleties he’s added to his striking.

Though Yusuff hasn’t competed at lightweight in nearly a decade I don’t consider the added weight to be a downside. Neither man should be impacted negatively by the additional allowance, and I suspect both may consider a permanent future at lightweight after this contest.

As a whole, Yusuff has a very strong chance to keep ahead of Santos on the numbers and in the cage. Yusuff is arguably the quicker fighter and should be able to keep Santos guessing with rangy kicks. By the time Santos does push through the space and get to work, he may find himself working out of a deficit.

Expect a savvy contest in this one where two refined strikers put their best foot forward. Chronically underrated, I suspect Yusuff can pull ahead and get his hand raised at the end of the night.

3-1 in the UFC and fresh off another highlight reel finish, Nursulton Ruziboev has closed the show in the vast majority of his wins. A deadly finisher who has only been to the scorecards a handful of times, Ruziboev is essentially a “finish or bust” fighter at this point of his career.

A towering figure at 6’5” (196cm), Ruziboev has competed at both welterweight and middleweight but predictably has had his best results in the bigger division. It’s worth noting that his singular loss in the UFC came in his only welterweight attempt.

Now set on his weight class, Ruziboev is ready to stay active – at least in terms of scheduling. Inside the cage, Ruziboev is not an impatient man. Though he owns an overwhelming number of finishes, he orchestrates those results with a surprisingly calm demeanor.

Ruziboev’s volume is not particularly high but he owns petrifying power in his right hand. His grappling is a bit of a mixed bag, but if it comes down to it, he is a persistent and strong submission threat.

Something of a lumbering fighter, Ruziboev is not slick but he is powerful is an extraordinary way. What he lacks in finesse he makes up for with raw finishing ability in every aspect of a fight.

That said, he is not unbeatable. His defensive wrestling is a weak spot and that has reared its head even in his limited Octagon time. His takedown defense technically stands at 0% in the UFC and while few have attempted to wrestle him in recent outings, it has been shown to be a valid path to disrupting Ruziboev’s offense.

Wrestling may be the name of the game for Dustin Stoltzfus, a uniquely built fighter who has come up the hard way in MMA. 16-6 overall, Stoltzfus suffered five of those losses in the UFC and has only recently started to show signs of pulling his game together.

2-1 in his last three outings, a devastating loss to Brunno Ferreira is sandwiched by rather impressive victories over Punahele Soriano and Marc-Andre Barriault; both of those wins have aged particularly well.

Stoltzfus has always been a well-rounded fighter but recent outings have showcased his dedication to making his style mesh a bit better. Taking down strikers and opportunistically picking people apart on the feet, Stoltzfus has shown the impressive ability to win a fight anywhere he needs.

Historically durable, Stoltzfus was stopped in his last two losses and it does call into question how well he can hold up to more wars. At 33-years-old it’s tough to say which way the second half of his career will tilt; his skills are improving noticeably but his physicality has to keep up.

The odds rightfully favor Nursulton Ruziboev but he is bound to struggle minute-to-minute with Dustin Stoltzfus. The threat of a finish will loom throughout the contest but I get the feeling Stoltzfus will have some answers for Ruziboev this weekend.

A win will require savvy and a dedicated game plan but Stoltzfus certainly has the skills necessary to challenge Ruziboev. If he doesn’t get clipped with something big, and that is a big if, Stoltzfus might just find himself outworking his lumbering foe and pulling ahead down the stretch.

4-2 in the UFC and riding a three-fight win streak, things are beginning to click for Melquizael Costa. Inside the cage and out, Costa is a busy fighter who has already competed twice this year; wins alone are solid but the fact he triumphed over Andre Fili and Christian Rodriguez did a lot for his stock.

One of the few men with vitiligo to compete in the Octagon, Costa has tightened up his game significantly since entering the UFC in 2023. It hasn’t been a long stint in the organization but he’s showing a willingness to grasp the opportunity with both hands.

Costa has submitted two of his last three foes but that is casting fog over his tuned-up striking. Growing in proficiency from both stances, Costa has legitimate punching power in both hands as well as sharp kicks from range.

The Brazilian is a solid striker at distance yet remains a dangerous threat on the mat. Despite only being 28-years-old, he has shown composure, lethality, and a bright future. UFC Fight Night represents a much-needed step up in competition as he tackles perennial veteran Julian Erosa.

At 35-years-old and with over 40 professional bouts to his name, Erosa’s career has stalled and started again multiple times. Habitually streaky as a fighter, Erosa has often gone through rough stretches followed by a string of victories.

This time, Erosa finds himself on that upswing as he carries a three-fight win streak into the weekend. Erosa finished all three of those wins and has done well to continue living up to a dangerous reputation even as he becomes long in the tooth.

Undeniably outside of his prime, Erosa is still an offense-minded competitor who can end a fight anywhere. A suffocating guillotine choke helps pad his otherwise meek takedown defense. Fighters left to strike with Erosa will meet a seasoned, hard-charging puncher with a penchant for dirty boxing.

Erosa has always been willing to go out on his shield; due to his offensive versatility, he typically comes out ahead. With age and durability sinking their teeth into Erosa, that strategy has become a far less consistent one.

With opposing trajectories and what looks to be the younger man hitting his prime, the circumstances look better than ever for Melquizael Costa. Both men can be volatile in their own way but expect Costa to showcase some heavy hands and close the show in a big way.