UFC 315 Preview & Tips | Sunday 11 May

The fresh welterweight champion basking in the glow of his success, Belal Muhammad is doing everything he can to make people Remember The Name. A frankly staggering statistical success, Muhammad practically dominated his way to the title and then took it in the same manner.

Muhammad is a fascinating fighter in the way that he’s developed over the years. Confident and scorned, Muhammad feels wronged by doubters in and out of the organization alike. That motivation has led to career-best work by Muhammad, who is hitting his stride in every sense.

Approaching his 37th birthday, Muhammad is at a physical peak and demonstrates is on the regular. A menacing pressure fighter, Muhammad weaponizes his conditioning and pushes a pace that has broken many fighters.

Muhammad is not a prolific finisher but credit is due for his ability to melt the willpower of professional fighters. In earlier years, Muhammad leaned heavily on persistent wrestling to break his foes down. Recent outings have showcased the striking improvements of Muhammad.

In fact, the overall cohesion of his game has sharpened significantly. Muhammad often boasts these days about “Canelo hands” and while his boxing may not be quite at that level, he has notably refined his striking since his organizational debut.

Muhammad continues to lack power but also doesn’t tend to focus on throwing with much power. A volume fighter akin to fellow champion Merab Dvalishvili, their well-rounded skills now yield them success everywhere due largely to the threat of heavy wrestling.

On the other end of the spectrum, Jack Della Maddalena has found himself in a unique title position despite only being ranked #5 in the division. 7-0 in the UFC, Australia’s Della Maddalena had only one fight last year but it was a big one, earning a TKO win over Gilbert Burns.

The fight, a nip-and-tuck affair from the opening bell, saw Della Maddalena down on two scorecards entering a crucial third round. The late finish maintained the Aussie’s perfect organizational record but did highlight some more gaps in his armor.

The majority of Della Maddalena’s career has been one-sided but recent years have seen him in multiple narrow fights. Split decisions went his way against both Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland prior to fighting Burns, where he was also down on the scorecards heading into the final round.

Della Maddalena did enough to get by an aging Gilbert Burns but was tested heartily in that bout. The ways in which he was tested will be tapped again at UFC 315, with takedowns and aggression key characteristics of Burns’ success.

The Australian is a sharp boxer with quick hands and a penchant for combination punching. Entertaining and somewhat flashy when he throws, Della Maddalena does his best work when on the front foot. When forced to retreat, he tends to divert into a counter-punching mode that yields him less success but allows him to maintain an element of danger.

It is easy to say this fight will come down to the takedown defense and gas tank of Jack Della Maddalena, but I will go a step further and suggest this is a miserable stylistic match-up for the Australian.

Della Maddalena does well when pushing forward and staying on the offensive. Few men push Belal Muhammad back, and even fewer do it for any extended length of time. Muhammad does a great job of playing to his strengths and doing what needs to be done for a victory.

Beyond the fact that Della Maddalena has flashed lacking conditioning in three round efforts, I am doubtful he will be comfortable operating under the pressure Muhammad brings to the table. Not only in the sense of wrestling, but Muhammad’s voluminous striking should find traction, as well.

Statistics suggest Della Maddalena’s takedown defense is quite extraordinary at 89%, but it’s skewed when accounting for the fatigue of his foes. Della Maddalena often gives up takedowns early to fresh opposition, only improving in defense as his opponents wilt.

Look for Belal Muhammad to offer too much of everything this weekend, controlling the night and securing his belt again.

Same Game Multi: Muhammad Head To Head + Muhammad 70+ Significant Strikes + Muhammad 4+ Takedowns

The betting favorite despite her status as a challenger, Manon Fiorot has finally garnered the respect and attention of fight fans and sportsbooks alike. The French native has had a quiet but consistent climb through the ranks in a manner reminiscent of her fighting style.

The 35-year-old is unassuming but superb, offering precise striking skills and intelligent fighting layered with strong fundamentals. Fiorot competed only once each in 2023 and 2024 but cleaned up one-sided decision wins over Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield.

With her contention no longer being questionable, Fiorot is ready for the biggest fight of her career. At this point, it’s hard to suggest anything different. Her performances have elevated over the years and she remains one of the most technically proficient and physically overpowering fighters in the division.

Fiorot cuts a hefty amount of weight to make the flyweight limit but has reigned in that process over the years. With her gas tank less impacted, Fiorot has been able to fend off takedowns, stay stable, and continue putting up volume against high-level opposition.

That physical advantage Fiorot carries into the cage has become a sort of glue to her entire style. While she remains a proficient striker with excellent takedown defense from a technical standpoint, Fiorot’s ability to flat out toss women off of her has been a boon throughout her career.

She will need that strength in tie-ups with Valentina Shevchenko, one of the most accomplished women in combat sports history. Now 37-years-old, it’s hard to overstate how impressive Shevchenko’s career is, particularly when one considers her re-taking the title last year.

A trilogy with Alexa Grasso notably took up nearly two years of their career and this will be the first fresh face for Shevchenko since 2022. Recent years have seen Shevchenko struggle a bit but ultimately showcase why she is such a highly regarded legend.

Early years were a highlight of Shevchenko’s background in Muay Thai but the last few years have displayed Shevchenko’s takedown ability. Traditional wrestling is not her forte but whether it’s a throw or a trip, she has exceptional success dragging fights to the mat from clinches.

Shevchenko is not the striking threat she once was but her experience has allowed her skill set to round out. A seasoned and worldly competitor, Shevchenko has seen it all and done most of it, offering a diverse variety of offense in every aspect of a fight.

All said, there is still a reason Valentina Shevchenko finds herself as an underdog this weekend. At a size disadvantage, Shevchenko’s ability to succeed in the clinch may not be dependable. If stuck in an extended kickboxing match, Shevchenko will be shorter and physically weaker.

The strength difference in this contest stands to be a significant factor. The majority of Shevchenko’s takedowns come from tie-ups and that is an area Fiorot has shown particular skill in. The skills of Fiorot have developed precisely over the years and she has everything required to take a win over the reigning champion.

38-years-old and the betting favorite once again, Jose Aldo is ready for a more exciting contest after coming up short to end 2024. A split decision loss to Mario Bautista did little to damage Aldo’s stock but having to deal with over seven minutes of control time did take some wind out of his sails.

The Brazilian legend is technically only 1-2 dating back to 2022, but it’s worth mentioning his activity in the boxing ring. Three boxing bouts in 2023 broke up the action and gave Aldo a reprieve from the wrestling-focused nature of his MMA opponents.

Now returning to the cage, Aldo will still be focusing on his own striking. A living legend who requires little exposition, Aldo has shown surprising longevity despite a lengthy and ridiculously high-level career.

Aldo does not output nearly as much volume as he once did but his accuracy and power remain. Aldo is a threatening offensive fighter with heavy hands and the willingness to fire back if pressured. He doesn’t do his best work when forced to chase opponents or fend off relentless wrestling, but the 38-year-old is still an imposing figure who knows how to win rounds.

For his 23rd UFC bout, Aldo will welcome someone a bit closer to his age in 37-year-old Aiemann Zahabi. Despite his age, Zahabi is something of a prospect in the division and has ran up a five fight win streak since 2021.

The brother of notable MMA coach Firas, last year saw Aiemann go 2-0 in career-best wins. An upset over Javid Basharat kicked the year off while a decision win over Pedro Munhoz ended it. Now Zahabi has a big point to prove in a homecoming in his native Canada.

Zahabi, much as one would expect as the brother of a coach, is a fairly intelligent fighter inside the cage. It’s clear he enters every fight with a game plan and generally he does a good job of sticking to it. Zahabi is a jack-of-all-trades but has developed his striking to be his best asset.

Mobility, a solid jab, and good timing on his shots have paved the way to his current win streak. Zahabi lacks extraordinary power and as a matter of fact is not an exceptional athlete, but makes up for it with basic, but efficient offense that wins rounds.

Zahabi knows how to fight fairly effectively and kill some time in between his own offensive bursts but can fall into a pattern of letting his opponents dictate the pace. Zahabi is not poorly conditioned by any means but doesn’t assert himself, rather capitalizing on exchanges his foes initiate.

That passivity may prove disastrous against Jose Aldo as these two will likely end up striking for three rounds. Essentially impossible to take down, Aldo should be able to keep things on the feet and at his preferred distance.

Mobility is not the strong suit of Aldo at this point in his career but he closes distance with strikes and should keep Zahabi on his heels. Poking and prodding Aldo to a decision is a tall task and one very few have accomplished.

Compounding the existing danger, Zahabi is defensively adept but fairly reactive. He has solid reflexes and good timing but reacts a bit heavily, falling victim to feints and longer combinations. A seasoned striker, Aldo tends to handle that defensive shell by finishing combination to the body.

Aldo will have the bigger moments in the fight, carrying the momentum of the rounds and controlling the pace of the action. Look for Zahabi’s win streak to be halted by the living legend in a somewhat tepid fight.

6-0 in the UFC since debuting in 2022, the rise of Natalia Silva has been one of the most impressive in recent memory. The Brazilian finished two of those wins but has settled well into a mobile kickboxing style.

The Brazilian notched wins over both Viviane Araujo and Jessica Andrade last year alone, making it clear she was ready for championship caliber competition. Silva is one of the quicker fighters in the division, poking, kicking, and running circles around much of her opposition.

Some appearances prior to her UFC debut showcased a sneaky submission game in the back pocket of Silva. But recent years have highlighted how well she can outstrike opponents with fast, lengthy strikes and swift footwork.

That isn’t to say she lacks finishing ability, but her intelligent, high-volume approach has yielded impressive results. Silva has become an agile sniper tough to pin down and even tougher to win rounds against.

Every subsequent fight seems to be escalating intensely in scope for Natalia Silva and UFC 315 is no different as she takes on former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso. A longtime fan favorite, Grasso captured the belt from Valentina Shevchenko in 2023 and lost it to the same woman in 2024.

A trilogy with Shevchenko ultimately saw them go 1-1-1 but now they both move onto new things. This will be Grasso’s first fight against a new opponent since 2022.

The Mexican former champion may not hold the title any longer but still the respect of the division for her razor sharp hands. A boxing specialist who also holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Grasso is difficult to beat in a striking match and tough to pin to the mat.

Well-rounded and elite to the highest degree, Grasso is accustomed to five round bouts having competed in them exclusively for the past three years. Returning to a 15-minute bout this weekend, Grasso will have to start quicker than she normally does if she hopes to bank rounds against a mobile foe.

Grasso’s offensive capabilities on the feet have garnered her respect but she is not an extraordinarily hard puncher and will need to work quickly with volume or risk falling into a deficit. The Mexican possesses competent wrestling but is neither a persistent nor consistent threat with those tools.

Left with a three round kickboxing bout, the odds favoring Natalia Silva begin to make sense. The Brazilian is quicker, has swifter footwork, and has generally shown the ability to control the both distance and pace.

For all she has accomplished, Alexa Grasso does not match up well with her Brazilian foe. Barring a surprisingly explosive finish, Grasso is likely to be left short on the outside of Silva’s kicks all night.

After two brutalizing defeats to comprise 2024, all eyes are on Benoit Saint-Denis as he attempts to carve a future out in the UFC’s lightweight division. Defeats to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano are certainly no shame but the manner in which he lost – sustained and brutal beatings – prompt cause for concern.

Without a head coach in his last two bouts, Saint-Denis has finally relented for his return at UFC 315; he falls under the guidance of performance specialist and fellow Frenchman Nicolas Ott. A quiet figure who has worked with the nation’s Olympic Karate team as well as notable French fight producer MMA Factory, Ott is also the head coach of #1 ranked Nassourdine Imavov.

Saint-Denis will be desperate for a win but the odds are in his favor both literally and figuratively. The biggest betting favorite of the night, Saint-Denis was originally slated to face Joel Alvarez but instead ended up with late-replacement Kyle Prepolec.

Physically, there is a lot to like about Benoit Saint-Denis. Nicknamed the “God of War”, Saint-Denis is happy to live up to the moniker and go out on his shield. Aggressive, powerful, bullying, Saint-Denis believes in his physicality and has rode that strength to a solid career.

However, as he ascended up the lightweight ladder, Saint-Denis hit a wall. Physically overpowering opponents with a front-loaded strategy isn’t so easy at the elite level. Though he takes a clear step down in competition at UFC 315, Saint-Denis will still need to demonstrate the ability to improve if he wants to be a future contender.

Offensively Saint-Denis is persistent and powerful but he lacks defense or finesse. Generally acting as a blunt object crashing into his foes, Saint-Denis has struggled when meeting stiff resistance. A better hammer than a nail, Saint-Denis is ridiculously durable but tends to wilt in efficiency once he starts getting stunned and tired.

As it is, Saint-Denis has a lot of questions to answer. He is only 29-years-old despite the rapid accumulation of damage he’s amassing in his career. Despite the foggy future, Saint-Denis stands to have a solid return to form against Canadian native Kyle Prepolec.

Seizing an opportunity to return to the organization, Prepolec will have the advantage of also making that return in his home country. A prior run saw him go 0-2 across an underwhelming 2019 but a 4-1 record since has allowed Prepolec passage back.

At this point of his career, Prepolec is deceptively experienced and sneakily effective. A rangy kicker who likes keeping things at the end of his feet, Prepolec isn’t the most mobile fighter in the world but manages space well.

Prepolec is not a devastating hitter but he’s got great timing and set-ups on his kicks, especially when he is lining them up to the head. Prepolec may be a significant underdog but he’s a tough man who has never been knocked out despite sharing the cage with a wealth of notable opposition.

Make no mistake, the deck is stacked against Prepolec here but he has the opportunity to make things interesting if he survives an early onslaught. Prepolec generally stays in relatively decent shape but in any case I expect the gas tanks of both men to get tested a bit in this outing.

Saint-Denis will need to prove a point in a relative step down in competition. Prepolec has nothing to lose and will be winging head kicks for as long as he’s standing. Neither man is defensively savvy but ultimately I anticipate the aggression and strength of Saint-Denis to tilt the scales.

I don’t expect Saint-Denis to be relentlessly aggressive in this contest, instead correcting for a more patient approach. This may extend the length of the fight but shouldn’t change the outcome, with Saint-Denis doing enough to win rounds and keep Prepolec on his heels.