Team USA have been on fire in the bottom half of the draw with Gauff, Pegula, Keys, Kenin and Baptiste all making it through to the 3rd Round.
With Jacquemot and Boisson facing off the locals are ensured a Frenchwoman in the 4th Round but our biggest focus will be on our best bet to win the tournament – Cori Gauff.
Would like to say that I have liked everything I have seen from Gauff but that is not the case. She may have dropped a total of only 10 games through two matches but 7 of those games have been breaks of serve. That is a concern, especially now that she takes on a more accomplished opponent in Bouzkova. Their only prior meeting on clay was in Rome in 2023 with Bouzkova winning in three sets. Bouzkova has also broken serve 11 times across her first games which is a great indicator of form. Coco has also thrown in 13 double faults so it is fair to say that Bouzkova will get her chances. Still have Gauff winning but she’ll me made to work for it. This will be one of many competitive matches on Day 7.
Andreeva is yet to drop a set in the tournament but she has been broken at least twice in each of her matches and has dropped 3+ games in all four sets played. Putintseva has made close to 75% of 1st serves for the tournament and a repeat of that here will make it harder for Andreeva to break serve. I am pencilling in Putintseva to break serve at least once per set and her own strength on serve will ensure longer sets with more games. Overs.
In a battle between consistency and ceiling I am taking the former. At her best Vondrousova can overpower Pegula but the American gets a huge tick when it comes to consistency. Vondrousova has already had her serve broken 7 times in the tournament and getting them back against a player of Pegula’s calibre will not be as easy as it was against Selekhmeteva and Frech. This is also her first tournament since February so I don’t think she’s in the form required to beat a top 5 ranked player at Grand Slam level.
Australian Open champion Madison Keys has blasted her way into the 3rd Round. She has won more than 80% of 1st serve points which has helped her cover the games handicap in both matches played in Paris. It is the type of form that she was in when she bageled Swiatek in Madrid but her countrywoman has matched motors with her in the past. The H2H reads 3-1 in the favour of Keys with Kenin winning the only prior meeting on clay. There have been 9+ games in all 9 sets they have played including 12 or more in 5 of them.
Bouzkova v Gauff: Over 19.5 games ($1.95)
Kudermetova v Alexandrova: Alexandrova WIN ($1.50)
Baptiste v Bouzas Maneiro: Baptists -0.5 ($1.85)
Keys v Kenin: Over 21.5 games ($1.91)
Vondrousova v Pegula: Pegula WIN ($1.50)
Jacquemot v Boisson: Jacquemot +2.5 ($1.85)
Kasatkina v Badosa: Badosa WIN ($1.67)
Andreeva v Putintseva: Over 19.5 games ($1.95)