UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 6 April

2024 was a big year for Lerone Murphy. Wholly successful in two appearances, Murphy dominated both Edson Barboza and Dan Ige for five and three rounds, respectively. Off the heels of those tremendous performances, Murphy is predictably the clear betting favorite this weekend.

Undefeated at 15-0-1 overall, Murphy is 7-0 in the UFC and has only looked better with each showing. One of the sharpest strikers in the division, Murphy originally hails from a background in football and that may help explain the heavy nature of his kicks.

The striking savant has always been regarded highly on the feet but a five round drubbing of Brazilian powerhouse Edson Barboza helped prove Murphy has hit another level. A slick and technically sound kickboxer, Murphy is more than happy to win minutes and pile on damage without overextending himself.

I would not go so far as to say he is “safety-first”, but Murphy knows how to minimize risks against dangerous fighters. Recent years have seen his wrestling develop to a notable degree; he has averaged roughly three successful takedowns in his last three outings.

Those characteristics will aid him greatly against a heavy-handed foe in Josh Emmett. Competing in his 40s for the first time, Emmett is a longtime veteran who still has his eyes set on a title shot.

Emmett was last in action garnering fans and picking up a highlight reel win over Bryce Mitchell. The thudding knockout was yet another example of Emmett’s right hand and its ability to remove consciousness.

Though he originally brings a wrestling background to the table, the majority of Emmett’s success – especially recently – has been brought on by his heavy hands. A deceptively quick striker, Emmett also owns enough durability to keep him relevant even in losing affairs.

At this point, Emmett can be relied upon to truck forward and wing wide, but devastating strikes. For Lerone Murphy, this is a practice of patience and discipline; he will undoubtedly be the cleaner striker, and to get drawn into firefights would be to his detriment.

Emmett turned back the clock last time out against a fairly limited grappler. A contrasting match-up here stokes far less optimism in the old dog. Slower than Murphy and at a technical disadvantage, Emmett is fortunate to have a solid chin to lean on. Without it, he would have little to no chance at all.

All said, Murphy should get the fight he wants at the pace he desires. Again, I expect Murphy to find some success with intermittent takedowns that break up a one-sided rhythm on the feet. For Emmett, surviving the distance may be the best accomplishment he can obtain in the main event.

5-2 in the UFC with as many finishes, it hasn’t taken long for Joanderson Brito to garner troves of fans and a healthy highlight reel. Brito has quickly established himself as a devastating finisher and unsurprisingly that has led to him being favored this weekend.

It was slightly over six months ago that Brito was last in action, though he came up short in a narrow bout with William Gomis. The usually explosive action of Brito was a bit stalled out and ultimately a slower-paced bout than expected culminated in a defeat.

The loss broke a 5-fight win streak for Brito and showcased some old cracks in the armor of Brito. A confident offensive powerhouse, Brito is quick to charge forward and let his strikes do the talking. This typically works in his favor but has led to some poor decision-making and landed him in sub-optimal positions.

When he’s flowing, Brito is one of the most dangerous finishers in the division. His ability to end a fight on the feet is well-known but he also owns some sneaky chokes from front headlocks. He doesn’t look to shoot and control fighters like a grappler in the traditional sense but is quick to capitalize on open necks and submission opportunities.

The superior striker in almost all of his bouts, Brito may benefit from a more patient approach at UFC on ESPN 65. Facing an American wrestler with a penchant for grappling, Brito will have his takedown defense tested early by Pat Sabatini.

Boasting a Division I collegiate wrestling background, Sabatini understands where his strengths lie and has generally done a good job sticking to his game plan. A couple missteps against the likes of Damon Jackson and Diego Lopes have demonstrated his potential fragility, but there are few in the division who can match his skills in a tie-up.

Sabatini still competes in grappling competitions and his love of the ground game is reflected inside the cage, too. Predictably, Sabatini is a solid takedown specialist but really shines in how he moves on the mat.

Sabatini is a slick grappler with solid control. It’s clear he puts time in to not only be a strong grappler in MMA but in a purer sense, as well. Quite frankly, if he were a more demonstrably durable fighter, he would likely be the betting favorite this weekend.

The volatile nature of Joanderson Brito makes it feel like a near assurance he will find a home for one of those bombs. Heavy kicks high and low can end the fight just as well as his hands. A failed shot could end in yet another sealed up choke for Brito.

The margin for error is exceptionally thin for Pat Sabatini. He possesses all the skills to keep this interesting and win minutes but three rounds is a long time to avoid fight-ending strikes, of which Brito will only need a handful.

I expect both men to have their moments in a nip-and-tuck affair but I am apt to believe Brito will crash into another violent and victorious appearance.

Four wins in a row with three finishes have led to a surprising amount of momentum behind Chang Ho Lee. The 30-year-old first popped on the radar when he ended both of his Road to UFC fights before the final bell.

The victories earned him a shot in the big leagues and though he couldn’t find a finish, Lee earned a split decision win over Long Xiao last time out. It wasn’t all rainbows for Lee but moving ahead from the closely contested bout, Lee finds a more forgiving match-up this weekend.

The South Korean has a well-rounded record on paper but make no mistake: he’s trying to force the fight to the ground. Wrestling and grappling is where Lee shines and he isn’t afraid to continue pushing his agenda.

The work Lee does on the feet is really just a conduit to takedown attempts. He isn’t an overly technical wrestler but he pushes a pace and has a decent variety of ways to get his foe down. Interestingly, he may get the grappling match he wishes for when he takes on American prospect Cortavious Romious.

Romious made his UFC debut six months ago and came up short against Gaston Bolanos. The unanimous verdict spoiled his freshman showing but Romious showed signs of life and has a rebound opportunity here.

A submission specialist at his core, Romious is a stocky grappler with a penchant for armbars. At only 5’4” (163cm), Romious is used to being at height disadvantage but doesn’t let it dissuade him from a dangerous motive.

With a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, it’s not a shock Romious lacks exceptional wrestling. Compounding the problem is his willingness to fish for submissions off his back. Giving up minutes and engaging in scrambles, Romious ultimately tired and ran out of options last time out.

The same outcome has a risk of occuring if Romious doesn’t get the job done early. At a hefty physical disadvantage, Romious may have no option but to doggedly pursue a grappling match of his own.

As such, I’m doubtful he will be fending off the takedown attempts of Lee with all his might. Instead, I anticipate a grappling match to be obliged by both men with the South Korean coming out ahead.

A clear betting favorite but looking to shake off a two-fight losing streak, this weekend will begin Brad Tavares’ 15th year in the UFC. A seemingly eternal veteran, Tavares is a beacon of consistency who has competed in the same weight class for his entire career.

One of the most accomplished Hawaiian fighters in the sport, Tavares is a solid striker who has maintained a surprising level of effectiveness even as he approaches four decades on the planet.

His most recent appearance, a split decision loss to Jun Yong Park, showed he still has signs of life.

A striker by nature, Tavares still enjoys keeping things on the feet as much as ever. Similarly, he hasn’t improved his finishing ability much over the years and is happy to let fights run their duration.

This has led to something of an issue for Tavares as his lack of intensity can lead to him falling behind and failing to dig out of that hole. That said, Tavares is certainly capable of putting on good shows and he will welcome a relative step down this weekend from the fierce opposition he’s been squaring off with.

Gerald Meerschaert, an organizational veteran of 22 fights, is well-known to fans and middleweight veterans alike. The man best known as “GM3” has been putting on entertaining affairs and chasing finishes ever since he made his UFC debut in 2016.

A grappling specialist with outstanding submission skills, Meerschaert is a uniquely skilled fighter with a dangerous set of tools and funky timing on their use. While he’s always been a finisher on the mat with vibrant and creative grappling, Meerschaert has also quietly tuned up his striking over the years.

He isn’t an overwhelming puncher nor does he possess any kind of extraordinary athleticism, but he is a persistent and lengthy fighter on the feet. Meerschaert’s conditioning has been hit and miss over the years but generally he does well in threatening finishes and keeping the pace up throughout.

It’s fair to say both Tavares and Meerschaert are outside of their prime but there’s an argument Meerschaert has a bit more left in the tank. Recent outings have seen Tavares’ typically solid takedown defense falter, and his striking hasn’t been there to pick up the slack.

This is bound to be a grueling fight but “GM3” tends to excel in those. There is certainly a world where Tavares shows his vintage skills, keeping this on the feet and winning a decision. But I anticipate a much messier fight where Meerschaert can keep the pressure on, pull ahead in scrambles, and find a way to win.