UFC 314 Preview & Tips | Sunday 13 April

At 36-years-old and riding a two-fight losing streak, both of which were finishes, it’s almost hard to believe how rough recent years have been for Alexander Volkanovski. As featherweight champion, the skid started with a move up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev for a second time.

It was a first round loss this time, and Volkanovski would be sent back to handle business in his own division. He was met by Ilia Topuria, who snatched the belt away in two rounds. Now Volkanovski is left without a win since July of 2023.

Thanks to his legacy and a looming rematch with Topuria that will seemingly never manifest at featherweight, Volkanovski has one more chance to take the newly vacant belt. But make no mistake, this UFC 314 headliner is dependent on Volkanovski’s response to Father Time.

Time will remain undefeated in the grand scheme of things but Volkanovski is sure he still has a bit left in the tank. His recent stoppage losses are blemishes but take nothing away from the skills Volkanovski brings to every fight.

One of the most purely skilled fighters in the division, if not the entire organization, Volkanovski is a mobile, dynamic, experienced technician. Owning a particularly sharp jab and an array of sneaky kicks, Volkanovski is a tough man to pin down and an even tougher one to win rounds against.

Though recently he hasn’t been holding up as well as usual, Volkanovski is still performing well up until the catalyst. Remarkably experienced, Volkanovski adjusts well in-fight and is quick to begin piling on damage when he gets a read on his opponent.

That said, he isn’t likely to be seeking an early finish against a devastating finisher in Diego Lopes. Now 5-1 in the UFC, Lopes has quickly made a name for himself as one of the most dangerous men in the division.

Quick finishes of Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff have aged well while recent decision wins over Dan Ige and Brian Ortega shed more light on Lopes’ capabilities. At the end of the day, Lopes is just an absurdly powerful finisher with the ability to end fights everywhere.

He is aggressive in his pursuit of submissions but I am most impressed with his offense at close range. Lopes is particularly sharp in tie-ups and on breaks, often uncorking heavy offense when his opponents don’t expect it.

There is a clear lack of subtly or finesse to his striking but everything he throws has bad intentions. Uppercuts that can lift his opponents chin and heavy hooks that spin their heads are the basis of his strikes at close range and both have proven remarkably effective.

Lopes had to take Ige and Ortega the full three round distance but faded down the stretch in those bouts. This is unsurprising given the chaotic pace Lopes enjoys early on, but signals that he may be in trouble if he allows Volkanovski into the second half of this contest.

Five rounds is a long time for anyone like Diego Lopes to sustain the kind of heavy offense he does. That said, I like how his game is developing and there is certainly upside to his strength against a fading legend in Volkanovski.

The changing of the guard is a common but ever-applicable term. Volkanovski may win minutes and will surely offer flashes of vintage brilliance, but it is time for the young Lopes to achieve his own dreams before the third round is through.

A slight betting favorite and one of the most divisive fighters on the entire card, Paddy Pimblett is finally making the perceived step up in competition fans have been waiting for. Competing once in each of the last two years, Pimblett put on one of his career-best showings last time out when he slept King Green in a single round.

The triangle choke not only earned him a Performance of the Night bonus but went a decent way in establishing substance for the perennially flashy Scouser. Now 6-0 in the UFC, Pimblett is beginning to fill out as the fighter he always had the potential to be.

That filling out process applies both to his skill set and his physical stature. Infamous for ballooning in weight in between bouts, Pimblett has uncovered newfound dedication with the arrival of his twin children.

Seemingly entering UFC 314 in some of the best shape of his career, Pimblett is one of the larger and stronger fighters in the lightweight division. This serves his striking well as he is developing into something of a sniper on the feet.

It may be early to say, but Pimblett is showing indicators of turning a corner in his striking. Though his chin remains high and his defense remains questionable, there is no doubt he is showcasing more composure, sharper timing, and greater distance management than years past.

This rounds out his game well as he is already a deadly grappler. A submission specialist at heart, Pimblett is a rattlesnake on the mat capable of ending things in a flash. The 30-year-old’s dynamism stretches across all aspects of his offense but applying that to (former) elites is another question.

How elite Michael Chandler still is remains a question in and of itself. Having lost four of his last five, Chandler was last seen putting on an abysmal showing against former rival Charles Oliveira. Though he managed to survive the distance, he lost a one-sided decision.

The star of Chandler has fallen dramatically in recent years. A fizzled fight with Conor McGregor sapped years from his career and when he has been able to get in the cage, he’s been met with sour experiences.

Once upon a time, Chandler was a walking highlight reel. Explosive hooks, big slams, heavy ground and pound; everything about Chandler was powerful, devastating, and aggressive. He was willing to go out on his shield but more often than not left his opponents on theirs.

Recent years haven’t exhibited the same “Iron” Mike. His performance against Oliveira was listless at best but more likely a sign of the times. Chandler’s best days are behind him. One could blame rust or the magic of “Do Bronx” to explain away his last outing, but ultimately Chandler has looked a shell of himself.

The development of Paddy Pimblett has been as slow as the decline of Michael Chandler. Both sat in a relative plateau for years; if this fight took place in 2021, the year they both entered the UFC, Chandler would be rightfully favored.

At this point in their careers, it’s hard to ignore the trajectory has radically shifted. Look for Pimblett to have success everywhere, picking apart an unsure Chandler and getting the fight he wants at the pace he can handle.

Two straight losses have stunned the stock of Yair Rodriguez a bit but he still enters UFC 314 as the betting favorite. The defeats, handed out by Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega, are nothing to be ashamed of but most importantly have little bearing on this weekend’s contest.

Rodriguez is well-known at this point as a creative striker extraordinaire and through the years he has lived up to that reputation. Jumping, spinning, straight or looping, Rodriguez can output offense with every limb from every direction.

The versatility in his attack often leads to exceptional success, particularly in the early portion of a bout. He fades down the stretch but is an offensive juggernaut difficult to resist. When he’s on, Rodriguez can pick his foes apart, dance around, and win in any multitude of ways.

Now 2-3 in his last five, it is critical for Rodriguez to hone in on his pacing and conditioning. Fortunately, he is tasked with a mere three-round contest this weekend and receives a relatively low-intensity pairing, at that.

Patricio Pitbull is 38-years-old and arguably should have made his UFC debut years prior. A 14-year stint in Bellator built the legacy of Patricio and his brother Patricky but the fan favorite now finds a new challenge in a new organization.

What Pitbull brings to the table differs depending on what version you fondly remember. Pitbull amassed an astonishing 13-3 record in Bellator title fights and secured his legacy as a truly great fighter in the era.

Unfortunately, the best of Patricio is not what fans get today. Recent years have showcased a gradual but clear decline in the capabilities of Pitbull. Though he remains a dangerous fighter with heavy low kicks, his offense as a whole has been slowed and fractured over time.

Feints have started to fall by the wayside and his volume has waned over the years. Respect must be given to Pitbull for the few tools he still disperses regularly but he will be the shorter, older, slower man in the Octagon this weekend.

A lengthy kickboxing match will favor Yair Rodriguez but I suspect he has the tools necessary to put on a great showing here. Rodriguez is significantly taller and longer but at this point is the sharper fighter of the two, as well.

I am doubtful Pitbull can generate the consistent offense necessary to tax the gas tank of Rodriguez. Hesitating on the outside will only give Rodriguez the fight he desires, and that is exactly what I anticipate from a gun-shy Pitbull at UFC 314.

4-0 in the UFC and rapidly becoming a featherweight star, Jean “Lord” Silva asked and received Bryce Mitchell for a UFC 314 showdown. The betting and fan favorite, Silva is only two months removed from a highlight reel finish of Melsik Baghdasaryan.

Silva has finished all of his UFC opponents and is one of the deadliest fighters in the division. A mainstay of the surging Fighting Nerds, Silva fits nicely into their preferred archetype as a diverse, high-flying striker.

The Brazilian has amassed a collection of impressive-looking finishes but this bout represents a stylistic match-up he is unaccustomed to. Typically, Silva is the striking extraordinaire being pitted against a fellow scrapper. In this requested bout, he fields a crafty grappling specialist with elite experience.

There is no questioning the superb striking ability of Jean Silva. Heavy kicks come flying both straight and spinning while sharp hands piece his foes up. Silva is a diverse, creative, powerful striker but not a man who spends much time grappling.

He was grounded three times on seven attempts by Charles Jourdain and though the overall takedown defense of Silva is statistically firm, there is reason to believe he’ll face a stiff challenge this weekend.

In the news for all the wrong reasons lately, Bryce Mitchell was called out and swiftly matched for a showdown with “Lord”. Despite the growing reputation Silva is developing, Mitchell is unafraid of taking the fight to a man he considers a blasphemer.

Mitchell does a lot of preaching outside of fighting but is something of a demon when the cage door locks. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Mitchell is one of the best grapplers in the division and fights like he knows it.

Over the years he has developed a game similar to fellow southpaw Demian Maia. Deceptively effective straight strikes pave the way to takedown entries, many of which start with the single leg. If he is stalled out there, he’ll begin to pick up the pace on the feet and threaten to pull away on volume.

As a whole, Mitchell is obviously his most effective on the mat but there is a coherency to his game that cannot be ignored. Something of a throwback fighter, Mitchell will batter the walls with every tool in his arsenal until his opponents wear down and let him in.

There is a lot to like about Jean Silva’s exceptional striking capabilities and his future upside as a member of the Fighting Nerds. But this is a big test and a potentially miserable stylistic match-up he called for.

A dramatic finish is what the odds suggest and many fans are hoping for, but Mitchell has the skills to spoil that outcome. Neither man will lie down easily in what has become a grudge match but I expect Mitchell’s hand to be raised at the end of a hard-fought and high-paced affair.

Out of action for just over two years, Nikita Krylov is entering on a three-fight win streak and hasn’t lost much momentum in the eyes of the betting public. The favorite this weekend despite the layoff, Krylov was last in action submitting Ryan Spann to end a chaotic fight.

Since, Krylov has been on the shelf with a single scheduled fight that fell through. Matchmaking missteps aside, a large chunk of the layoff was caused by a shoulder injury, surgery, and subsequent recovery.

When he’s healthy, Krylov enjoys staying busy both in terms of schedule and punching volume. A finisher by every definition, Krylov has only been to four decisions in his 39-fight career. Dangerous both on the feet and on the mat, Krylov has established himself as a legitimate threat at light heavyweight.

Now known as “The Miner”, there are still questions left to be answered as Krylov comes back from a hefty layoff. When he’s active, Krylov lives up to his record and aggressively seeks a finish no matter where the fight is. There’s a degree of sloppiness to Krylov that lands him in hot water sometimes but more often than not he is able to worm his way to advantageous positions and end the fight.

Maneuvering those thin margins will be difficult against a quick striker in Dominick Reyes. On a comeback trail of his own, Reyes has won his last two, finishing both Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.

The wins go a long way for Reyes, who hit a skid after controversially coming up short against Jon Jones in 2020. Surprisingly, that loss would begin a four-fight stretch where Reyes was all but entirely written off in the division.

Now revitalized and with his feet underneath him, Reyes is back to showing flashes of what got fans so excited to begin with. Fast hands and legitimate power are the linchpins of his efficacy but there is substance to Reyes’ game that belies his flashy-looking record.

As the faster man in this contest, Dominick Reyes may actually enjoy fielding the wild aggression of Nikita Krylov. Though both men are liable to be hurt in this bout, I consider Reyes the cleaner striker with greater world class experience.

Krylov is certainly a dangerous kickboxer but his defense is utterly unimpressive and I doubt his ability to get this fight to the mat. In what is likely to be a striking contest, Reyes has his best chance to continue his comeback and notch another finish at UFC 314.