Evan Psarras previews Round 7 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
The Dragons put a golden point loss against the Eels behind them with a big win over the Titans in what was their best performance of the season. In contrast, the Sea Eagles only source of attack against the Sharks came through a series of interceptions but they fell short 24-18. Jason Saab returns on the wing for the home side while te visitors lose their top try scorer for the season (Tuipulotu) who is replaced by Mat Feagai.
Head To Head
There is a basic rule when these two teams face off and it is that home ground advantage matters. The home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Sea Eagles having won 6 of the last 7 as a home favourite. The Sea Eagles last 6 wins at 4 Pines Park have been by 12 or more points with an average winning margin of 21.3 points. The Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 clashes hosted by the Sea Eagles and the man to keep an eye on is Olakau’atu as he has scored a try in each of his last three appearances against the Dragons.
Stats That Matter
A try at the death was enough for the Sea Eagles to cover the line in defeat last week which improved their line record to 9-2 in their last 11 following a loss. They have won 8 of those games outright with the Over hitting in 64% of those games. There is further statistical support for the Sea Eagles as they have won 8 of their last 10 as a home favourite and have averaged 33ppg in their four games played at 4 Pines Park so far this season. The Dragons are 2-8 both straight up and at the line in the last year on the back of a win which suggests they will not be able to replicate last week’s performance.
Prediction
This is the perfect spot to bet against the Dragons. They have rarely put two good performances together and 4 Pines Park has not been a happy hunting ground for them. Add to that the fact that the Sea Eagles have won 7 of their last 9 at the ground by 13+ points and it translates to a dominant win for the home side.
Tips
Best Bet: Sea Eagles -3.5 ($1.87)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles WIN, Olakau’atu Anytime Tryscorer, Saab Anytime Tryscorer ($4.96)
The Bulldogs remain top of the pops after having the week off (bye) in Round 6. You must go back to 1938 to find the only other time that they won their first 6 games of the season, and they are firm favourites to complete the feat. A controversial sin-bin played a pivotal part in the Rabbitohs defeat but they don’t have time to think about it. Burton and Kikau return for the Rabbitohs as do Cody Walker and Campbell Graham for the Bunnies which is music to the ears of the 70,000+ that are expected in attendance.
Head To Head
There have been some incredible moments in the traditional Good Friday game and none bigger than the James Graham ‘bent finger’ pointed at the direction of referee Gerard Sutton. The Rabbitohs have won the last 6 Good Friday battles with 6 of the last 7 producing no more than 44 total match points. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 hosted by the Bulldogs but despite a list of slow scoring clashes, Alex Johnston has scored 16 career tries against the Bulldogs including 2 or more on 4 separate occasions which makes the Rabbitohs left winger (Tass) a play.
Stats That Matter
We are starting to see the Bulldogs give away bigger starts that we have been accustomed to. They have covered the line in their last 4 games and have conceded a total of 14 points across their last 3 games. The Under is 3-0 in their last 3 but nothing compares to the Rabbitohs perfect 6-0 Under record in their 6 games played in 2025. If there is a concern for the Bunnies it is a 2-7 record both straight up and at the line in away games played in the last 12 months. It is worth noting that they share the same home ground as the Bulldogs (Accord Stadium) and that they have covered the line in 7 of their last 8 matches at this ground.
Prediction
This match screams Under from all angles. Both teams have focused heavily on defence this season and it has resulted in a combined 9-2 Under record between them this season. They Good Friday battles have also been low scoring and a reason for that is big grounds and the officials allowing things to slide such as slowing down the ruck. We have been on the Unders for both teams almost every round and that is not changing here. Taking 21-30 total match points is a good option and I can see this being the type of game where it could go down to golden point and a field goal. The Bulldogs have scored the opening try in every game played this season.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($7.50)
Same Game Multi: Tri bet 1-12 Either Team By Under 12.5, Tass Anytime Tryscorer, Neither Team To Score 20+ points ($15.79)
There is only one undefeated team left this season (Bulldogs) but they are not the benchmark or competition favourite. That title goes to the Storm who are coming off another devastating win. We get to see Sua Fa’alogo for the first time this season as he comes in for the injured Moses Leo with Jahrome Hughes also named despite going off early last week. The Dolphins are flying after claiming back-to-back wins and have named the same 17 that picked apart the Panthers.
Head To Head
Their three prior meetings have all been won by the Storm but there has been a distinct difference between their two clashes at Suncorp Stadium and the one at AAMI Park. The Storm thrashed the Dolphins 48-6 in Melbourne last year but the winning margin at this ground has been6 and 8 points. Isaako has 3 tries in his 3 appearances against the Storm as a Dolphin while for the Storm, Hughes scored in both matches last season. It could also be a case of good timing for Fa’alogo as he bagged a double in the most recent clash between the two sides.
Stats That Matter
With respect to attack, the Storm have been the most dangerous side in the competition for more than a year. Of their last 7 wins, 6 of them have been by a margin of 24+ points with the Storm having scored 40 or more points in 7 of their last 11 games leading into this one. They have won 8 of their last 10 as an away favourite and have scored the opening try in all but one of their games this season. The Under is 6-0 in Dolphins games this season and they have covered the line in their last 4 as a home underdog.
Prediction
The Dolphins have struggled against the top sides with a 1-8 record in their last 9 against teams occupying a spot in the top 8. They have won only 3 of their last 9 following a win but to be honest, all our focus should be on the Storm. As determined as the Dolphins can be, if the Storm bring their best they will win by 30. Fa’alogo will have a huge point to prove as he is chasing a spot in the starting side so I fancy him to score 2+ tries. Another big win for the Storm is incoming.
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -13.5 ($1.90)
Value: Sualauvi Fa’alogo 2 or More Tries ($3.40)
Same Game Multi: Storm Over XX points, Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer, Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half ($4.06)
It was a similar story for both teams last week. They headed into Round 6 having won their last three but were caught on the back foot from the opening whistle and were on the wrong end of disappointing defeats. The Warriors 28-point loss to the Storm was compounded by injuries to Fisher-Harris (pec) and Nicol-Klokstad (concussion) who are both unavailable for this one. Gosiewski will serve a one-match ban for the Broncos but with Jordan Riki coming into the side, one could argue that he is an upgrade.
Head To Head
The H2H reads 6 wins a piece and a draw in the last 13 meetings but a deeper dive reveals that this is a favourable spot for the Warriors. They have won 5 in a row against the Broncos as a home underdog and have covered the line in 6 of the last 8 meetings when installed as the outsider. The Over has hit in each of the last three meetings with 48+ total match points in each match.
Stats That Matter
A common trend in the last year is the Broncos being overvalued. They have covered the line in only 6 of their last 21 games (29%) yet continue to give away big starts away from home. Allowing more than 20ppg so far this season has made it difficult for them to cover the line and the reason why they have been involved in high scoring matches. The Over is 8-2 in the Warriors last 10 home games and has hit in 69% of games following a loss in the last year.
Prediction
A reshuffle to the Warriors backline which includes Capewell playing in the centres will give the Broncos attack plenty of players to target. The trio of Barnett, Ford and Clark will get through a tonne of work but containing the kicking game of the Brisbane halves will be a difficult task. Defensively the Broncos are not great, and this was also the case two years ago when they made the Grand Final. It does not mean they cannot be successful but does mean that there will be 50+ total match points in most of their games. Their left edge defence is the weaker of the two so we will take Kosi anytime tryscorer as he is listed to play on the right wing for the home side.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Both Teams To Score 20+ points, Kosi Anytime Tryscorer, Shibasaki Anytime Tryscorer ($9.72)
Last week was a new low for the Panthers. Not only did they lose a 5th consecutive game, but they were comprehensively outplayed by the Dolphins. Despite this they have opened favourites to beat a Roosters side that were impressive winners away to the Broncos. Luke Garner replaces Tago in the centres as Ivan Cleary goes searching for answer while for the Roosters, Radley is back into the starting side with Nawaqanitawase taking over in the centres for Billy Smith (suspended).
Head To Head
Prior to their Round 2 clash earlier this season, the Panthers had won 10 in a row in this series. Things took a dramatic turn with the Roosters causing a monumental upset 38-32 in a match that marked the beginning of the Panthers freefall. If we are looking at history, the Panthers have won and covered the line in their last 4 games away to the Panthers – holding them to 16 or fewer points in each of those games. Sadly for the Panthers, history is being re-written. The duo of Daniel Tupou and Connor Watson combined for 4 tries in their most recent clash (two each) but the Panthers will be without their biggest weapon out wide (Brian To’o) who has 5 tries in his last 6 in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
It may not make sense after what we have seen from the Panthers in the last 5+ years, but defence is their biggest issue. They have conceded 22 points or more in each game this season and an average of 28.3ppg this season. That is more than double the number of points they have conceded from 2021 onwards (14.1ppg) which is clear evidence of a major decline. They have failed to cover the line in their last 3 and are 4-7 at the line in their last 11 away games. In contrast, the Roosters have won 7 of their last 11 home games and are playing with more purpose as indicated by their rank in tackle busts this season (2nd).
Prediction
The bookies refuse to install the Panthers as outsiders, but they do not deserve favouritism here. Their defensive structures have completely fallen apart, and it has forced them to shift away from what made them successful – discipline. Despite ranking first in run metres and second in linebreaks, they no longer have the quality/polish out wide to convert their opportunities. The same applies on the other end with respect to shutting teams down. Have to take the Roosters with the start here and the Roosters wingers to combine for 3+ tries as the Panthers have been carved up out wide.
Tips
Best Bet: Roosters +3.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: To Combine for 3+ Tries Tupou/Young, Over 46.5 points, Roosters Win Either Half ($7.99)
The Raiders 50-12 win over the Eels was their best performance of the season and has earned them a spot in the top 4. Meanwhile, the Titans lost by 20+ points for the second time in as many weeks with the Dragons successfully exposing Beau Fermor in the centres. The Titans forward shifts back into the pack this week and the return of captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui will provide them with much-needed size in the middle. The Raiders get a boost of their own with Zac Hosking named on the bench but it looks as though Nicholson will hold his spot in the starting side for now.
Head To Head
There has been no more than a single try between them in 3 of the last 4 meetings but that hasn’t stopped the Raiders from improving what is a great record in this series. They have won 9 of their last 10 against the Titans which includes going 4-0 both straight up and at the line in the last 4 clashes as the away team. The Green Machine have won 5 of the last 6 battles at Cbus Super Stadium and have averaged 32.2ppg in those matches. There have been 52 or more total points in all but one of those games which suggest it will rain points on the Gold Coast this weekend.
Stats That Matter
The Raiders are building towards something special this season. They have covered the line in 8 of their last 11 games following a win and a distinct game style/plan combined if effort has translated to consistency. Their attack has been the standout with an average of 28ppg highlighted by their edge forwards running devastating lines. Nicholson (4) and Young (5) have combined for 9 tries with both getting on the score sheet in each of the Raiders last two games. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 8 day matches between them at this ground with the Raiders posting a 7-1 line record in those games.
Prediction
When we look at the characteristics of these two teams there is a series of distinct differences. The Raiders are willing to work hard coming out of their own end, focus on their kick-chase and line speed in defence, topped off with running hard lines on the edges to create opportunities. The Titans on the other hand are rocks and diamonds. They often lack situational awareness and rely on individual brilliance rather than a collective effort. The visitors will put in the hard yards required and are proving to be a very reliable bet this season. Like the Raiders and the Overs.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Raiders 41 points or more ($6.40)
Same Game Multi: Alternate Handicap Raiders +6.5, Young Anytime Tryscorer, Sami Anytime Tryscorer ($6.15)
Things went from bad to worse or the Knights last week as they were minutes away from being held to nil for a second consecutive game. They have now lost their last three games, and it has forced Adam O’Brien into making changes. Tyson Gamble and Schiller return with Frizell listed to play prop and Mat Croker named at lock. The Sharks did their best to keep the Sea Eagles in the contest at Optus Stadium but were able to come away with a crucial two points. Fonua-Blake has been named but could be a late withdrawal.
Head To Head
The Sharks won a golden point thriller the last time these two teams met and have been victorious in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Knights have won 8 of the last 10 when installed as the home favourite but are a miserable 0-4 as the underdog which is what applies here. The Under has held on in 5 of the last 6 meetings including the last 3 which have produced an average of 35.7 total match points. Mulitalo has 3 tries in his last 4 against the Knights while Marzhew has crossed for a try in each of the last two meetings.
Stats That Matter
There is a significant push for the Unders from both sides in this one. The Under is 8-2 in the Knights last 10 home games including 4-0 in the last 4 at McDonald Jones Stadium, not to mention 5-0 in their 5 games played this season. The Knights have averaged a league-worst 9.2ppg so far this season which has contributed to an incredibly low 26.4 total match points per game. The Under is also 5-0 in the Sharks last 5 – all which lines up with the recent Unders history in the recent clashes between these two sides.
Prediction
Somehow the total for this one has been set in the 40’s so we will gladly back the Unders with confidence. The Knights attack is abysmal, and Tyson Gamble isn’t going to solve their problems. Adam O’Brien persists with having Ponga closer to the ball, but the outside backs have not been good enough to create anything on their own. The Sharks may be inconsistent, but their defence has been solid, and they have held teams to less than 20ppg this season. The Knights have scored 2 tries across their last 3 games so we will not be touching them.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 42.5 points ($1.85)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($6.25)
Same Game Multi: Alternate Total Points Under 50.5, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer, Only Sharks to Score 20+ points ($4.33)
The Tigers put on a defensive display for the ages in a 20-4 win over the Knights which saw them climb back into the top 8. The good news ended there as days later young gun Lachlan Galvin announced that he would not be resigning with the club. He has been dropped as a result with Doueihi to wear the no.6 jersey and Laulilii coming onto the wing with Naden to play centre. The Eels were flogged by the Raiders in Darwin but the return of Mitchell Moses could not have come at a better time. It is not the only change for the Eels with Jack Williams, Tuilagi, Doorey and Moretti named ahead of the likes of Matterson, Ofahengaue and Guymer.
Head To Head
Home and away is not relevant for this matchup as the majority of their battles have been played at either CommBank Stadium or Accor Stadium – venues they both play regularly at. What has been relevant in the past is the betting odds as the favourite has won 76% of the last 29 meetings. The Tigers have won 8 of their last 11 as the betting elect against the Eels and 2 of the last 3 battles on Easter Monday – both by a single point. The Over has hit in each of the last 7 meetings when the Tigers have been listed as the home team.
Stats That Matter
Outside of a gutsy win over the Dragons a fortnight ago, the Eels have been dreadful. They have allowed 33.7ppg and have scored 20+ points themselves only once. The Tigers on the other hand have held 4 of their 6 opponents to fewer than 20 points. Completing more than 82% of sets (3rd) and ranking in the top 5 for post contact metres has helped them gain territorial advantage. Turuva scored the opening try for the second time this season when he crossed against the Knights and is a great play again this week as the Eels right third of defence has conceded more tries (19) than any other side in the competition.
Prediction
No Galvin, no worries. The Tigers have improved out of sight – especially in defence. This cannot be said about the Eels and the return of Moses will not help them in that department. Jason Ryles has opted for youth and left several key forwards out which will leave them vulnerable through the middle and on the edges. Terrell May is the best buy of the season by a country mile at this point and the Eels do not have anyone that will contain him. Luai was public with his criticism of Galvin but from what he has shown us in the past, he will back it up where it matters – on the field.
Tips
Best Bet: Tigers WIN ($1.75)
Same Game Multi: Tigers +6.5, Turuva Anytime Tryscorer, Under 47.5 points ($4.14)