Evan Psarras previews Round 6 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
There is now officially cause for concern at the foot of the mountain after the reigning premiers suffered a 4th consecutive loss. They failed to score a single point in the second half of the 22-18 defeat against the Cowboys but in a huge boost, the duo of Dylan Edwards and Scott Sorensen have been named to make their returns. The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the season – a dominant 36-10 upset win over the Titans. Tom Gilbert has served his suspension which will see him return to lock, with Plath shuffled to the edge and Kaufusi relegated to the bench.
Head To Head
They have only met on two prior occasions and despite losing both matches, the Dolphins have held their own. The Panthers won the inaugural clash 24-14 with their only battle last season being an epic. The Dolphins led 26-12 with 20 minutes to play but the Panthers were able to claw back the deficit and force golden point with Nathan Cleary kicking an unforgettable 2-point field goal to take the points. Tabuai-Fidow has 3 tries in his 2 games against the Panthers in a Dolphins jersey but the big surprise is Panthers prop Moses Leota who has a try in each of his two battles against the Dolphins.
Stats That Matter
The Dolphins may have ended a 5-game losing streak last week, but they have won only 2 of their last 9 following a win which is accompanied by a 33% success rate at the line in those games. Despite losing their last four games outright, the Panthers have still managed to cover the line in 6 of their last 9 after a loss with the Under holding on in 67% of those games. The Under is 5-0 in Dolphins games this season with an average of 38.8 total match points. Slow starts have been one of the Panthers biggest issues this season and they have scored the opening try just once through five rounds. The Panthers have missed 179 tackles this season – the 4th most of any team in the competition.
Prediction
We are yet to see the Dolphins get blown off the park this season and there are multiple reasons why. They rank in the top 5 for both run metres and post contact metres so far this season which tells us that their effort levels are where they need to be. They have lacked polish in attack up until last week, but the Panthers defence has been suspect to say the least. We cannot underestimate the impact of Dylan Edwards’ return. Outside of the metres he provides, it is his positioning in defence which is invaluable. The Panthers defence will improve significantly making the Unders the best play. Leota to score is a value option.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Moses Leota Anytime Tryscorer ($8.25)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 1st Half Dolphins +3.5, Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer ($8.35)
It was a similar story for both teams in Round 5. They entered their respective matches as form favourites following wins the prior week and it ended in disappointing defeats. The Dragons led by 12 points midway through the second half and it was a former Dragons in Zac Lomax who was responsible for the winning blow – a field goal in golden point. Meanwhile, it took the Titans 65 minutes to score their first try but it was too late as they went down 36-10. That combined with a suspension to Tino has forced Des Hasler to reshuffle his backline with Beau Fermor returning to his preferred position in the back row.
Head To Head
This series has been dominated by the Red V with the Dragons winning 9 of the last 13 clashes including 4 of the last 5. Wollongong has not been a happy hunting ground for the Titans as they are winless against the Dragons in their 6 prior trips to WIN Stadium. A 5-1 line record in the last 6 as a home favourite in this series highlights the Dragons dominance. The visitor’s main threat has been Jyden Campbell who has scored two tries in the last three meetings. Only 2 of their 6 battles in Wollongong have produced more than 42 total match points.
Stats That Matter
The Dragons fell to 2-8 both straight up and at the line in their last following a win but don’t be alarmed as they have covered the line in 9 of their last 13 after a loss. A 10-3 Under record in those games highlights that the emphasis following a defeat is defence and this game should be no different. The Under is 8-1 in the Titans last 9 away games and has also held on in 3 of their 4 matches played this season. Favouritism is not a tag the Dragons have enjoyed as they have lost their last four games as the betting elect.
Prediction
There has been an average of 41.0 total match points in Dragons’ games this season which makes it a surprise to see this total open at more than half a century – especially in Wollongong where only 2 of their last 7 games have produced 50+ total match points. It is difficult to ignore the Dragons struggles when installed as the favourite. They have won only 37.5% of games as the betting favourite from 2023 onwards. Sticking with the Unders and will be including Titans to win in the SGM.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Titans WIN, Jayden Campbell Anytime Tryscorer, Alt total Under 57.5 points ($8.44)
The Roosters win over the Panthers in Round 2 is long gone. They have lost their last three games since and their Round 5 loss to bitter rivals South’s has forced coach Trent Robinson to bring out the axe. Chad Townsend and Dominic Young are among the casualties but there will be no shortage of pressure on their replacements in front of a packed house at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos have won their last three games with their most recent success being a 46-24 win over the Tigers. Adam Reynolds is under an injury cloud and Piakura is suspended which will see Adam Reynolds and Xavier Willison play more prominent roles in their respective positions.
Head To Head
These two teams faced off twice in 2024 with the Roosters completing the season double and improved their record to 7-2 in their last 9 against the Broncos. Thar history has quickly been following their Round 1 clash this season – a little more than a month ago. The Broncos dismantled the Roosters 50-14 with Selwyn Cobbo leading the way with a hat-trick. The visitors have history on their side as they have won the last four clashes played at Suncorp Stadium. Despite this, the Broncos have been successful at the line in 9 of the last 12 meetings when listed as the home team.
Stats That Matter
Last week’s victory was a prime example of how quickly the Broncos can put points on the board when they gather momentum and the passes stick. They lead the NRL in points scored (162) this season and this has contributed to an average of 52.8 total match points in their games played this season. The Over has hit in 67% of Broncos home games in the last year and in 6 of the Roosters last 7 games played at Suncorp Stadium. In addition to this, the Over has hit in 7 of the Roosters last 10 when coming off a loss. The Broncos have covered the line in only 3 of their last 12 home games but the Roosters have lost 11 straight against top 4 teams. The start will play a pivotal role at the Roosters should not be discounted as they have scored the opening try in 4 of 5 games played this season.
Prediction
There is no telling how big his line will bet by the time kick off rolls around but no matter how high they set it, we will be backing the Overs. The absence of Collins will make it more difficult for the Roosters to match motors with the home team through the middle and changes to the backline will impact their defensive structures. They do not have the kicking game required to place the Broncos under pressure and this will allow the home team to maintain territorial advantage throughout the contest. They could repeat the 50-point effort from Round 1.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 50.5 points ($1.83)
Same Game Multi: Broncos 13+, Shibasaki Anytime Tryscorer, Cobbo Anytime Tryscorer ($4.48)
The Sharks thought they had the two points in the bag, but the Raiders had other ideas with almost every player in the team touching the ball in the match winning try which was scored with a matter of seconds left on the clock. The Sea Eagles were blown off the park by a relentless Storm attack. Teig Wilton has been named to return for the Shark and despite being named, don’t be surprised if Jason Saab is a late out for the Sea Eagles.
Head To Head
This is usually the ‘Battle of the Beaches’ but is the first leg of a double header at Optus Stadium in Perth. The Sharks have won 4 of the last 5 meetings which includes victory in the last three played at 4 Pines Park. The theme in their recent battles has been points with 46+ total points in 6 of the last 7 meetings and the Over hitting in the last three with the Sharks listed as the home team. Despite their good recent record against the Sea Eagles, the Sharks have won only 3 of the last 13 meetings as the home team and have successfully covered the start in only 1 of their last 7 attempts as a home favourite.
Stats That Matter
They may have been outplayed by the Storm last week, but the Sea Eagles have a habit of bouncing back. They have won 8 of their last 10 following a loss and have posted an incredible 9-1 line record in those games. The Over has hit in 70% of those games and anything but a high scoring contest would be a shock as the Over has hit in each of the Sea Eagles last 7 away games. The duo of Mulitalo and Koula have three tries each in the last two meetings with the latter bagging a double against the Storm in a losing effort last week.
Prediction
Sharks fans may be calling for the media to get off Nicho Hynes’ back but the criticism is warranted. He is playing with no confidence whatsoever and his kicking game has been sub-par to say the least. The Sharks right edge conceded a double to Hudson Young last week and 54% of the tries they have conceded this season have been down the right third of the field. That’s great news for Koula who was a one man wrecking machine last week. Over, Sea Eagles with the start and Koula anytime try are all bets in this one.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Alternate Handicap Sea Eagles +7.5, Koula Anytime Tryscorer, Both Teams To Score 20+ points – YES ($7.03)
Latrell Mitchell produced his best in the closing stages to get the Rabbitohs over the line against the Roosters and they will need him to be at his best again as Cody Walker, Jamie Humphreys and Ravalawa are the latest injury casualties. The Cowboys proved that their Round 4 win over the Raiders was no fluke by overcoming a second half deficit to beat the Panthers. Reuben Cotter is back for the Cowboys, but all eyes will be on Lewis Dodd who makes his NRL debut at halfback for the Bunnies.
Head To Head
At one stage from 2018 through to 2022, the Rabbitohs had won 7 in a row against the Cowboys. The Queenslanders have since bounced back with victory in the last two clashes including a 28-22 win in their only meeting last season. Favouritism has been a relevant factor in this matchup with the betting elect having won 17 of the previous 23 battles. The Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 as an away favourite and have successfully covered the line in 5 of the last 7 overall meetings when favoured by the bookies. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with the Over hitting in only 3 of the last 11 hosted by the Bunnies.
Stats That Matter
The Rabbitohs continue to employ a defence-first mentality. The Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games and 8-2 in their last 10 following a win. The Rabbitohs have covered the line in all 5 games this season and all four of their victories in 2025 have been by a 1-12 margin. A 6-3 line record as a home underdog in the last year indicates they will be strong, but we must remember that this game is being played in Perth. The Cowboys have a losing record following a win in the last year (5-7) and have covered the line in only 1 of their last 4 as a road favourite.
Prediction
With an average of 39.6 total match points in their five games played this season, the Under has been a moral in Rabbitohs games. With several key players out, this week will be no different as they will lean on effort, completion rate and defensive intensity in an attempt to cause an upset. With respect to tryscorers we want to be on Alex Johnston as Latrell is certain to do most of his attacking down the left channel. Only 2 of the 16 tries conceded by the Rabbitohs have been through the middle third so we will be taking a Cowboys winger (Taulagi) in the SGM.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 Either Team by Under 12.5 points. Alex Johnston Anytime Tryscorer, Taulagi Anytime Tryscorer ($4.94)
It took the Eels five weeks, but they finally got rookie coach Jason Ryles his first win. It was a bittersweet one for Zac Lomax as he put the dagger in the bag of his former club by slotting the winning field goal in golden point. The Raiders had a dramatic win of their own with a remarkable team try in the final minute to beat the Sharks. No major changes to report for either side but one man whose job could be under fire is Kaeo Weekes if he continues to be vulnerable under the high ball.
Head To Head
The favourite has won and covered the line in each of the last four meetings in this series. They have met just once in each of the last two years with the Raiders winning both matches. The trio of Timoko, Kris and Hudson Young scored at least once in each of those games with Young fresh off a double against the Sharks. The Eels have scored 5 tries as a team in the last two meetings with three of those being scored by their starting left winger.
Stats That Matter
This is the final year of the Eels 12-year deal to play at TIO Stadium and their supporters will be glad to see the top end in the rear view. They have lost their last 3 games at this ground by an average margin of 23 points! The Eels have won 1 of their last 5 following a win with the Over hitting in 80% of those games. That tells us that their defence will struggle to contain the Raiders attack. The Eels have trailed at half time in all five games played this season and they will likely be playing from behind as they are yet to score the opening try this season while the Raiders have done so in 4 of 5 matches.
Prediction
Had the Raiders lost last week it would have been an injustice as they were the better team by a clear margin. The Eels deserve credit for their performance, but I cannot see them replicating that here. The ‘Green Machine’ have a huge advantage in the forwards and that will give Fogarty the perfect platform to execute pin-point kicks. The Raiders have been consistent with their level of effort this season and once they get on top, they will completely dominate this contest. Have them winning by a big margin!
Tips
Best Bet: Raiders -5.5 ($1.90)
Value: Raiders 41 Points or More ($7.25)
Same Game Multi: Timoko Anytime Tryscorer, Kris Anytime Tryscorer, Young Anytime Tryscorer ($20.57)
The Storm were out to prove that their loss to the Dragons was a mere hiccup. They did so in style by putting 48 points on the Sea Eagles and improving to 16-0 in their last 16 following a loss. Papenhuyzen and Coates have been named despite leaving the field early with Craig Bellamy having the luxury of naming the same 17. The bye may have come at the wrong time for the Warriors as they reeled off three consecutive wins prior to the week off. The time off has given Rocco Berry the chance to recover and his return means Pompey shifts to the wing and Kosi drops out.
Head To Head
This has been a horror matchup for the Warriors with the Storm winning the last 16 meetings. The Melbournians have won the last 9 clashes at AAMI Park with the Warriors last win here coming on ANZAC Day in 2014. The Storm have won 6 of the last 9 by a margin of 13+ points and their dominance at home has seen the Overs hit in the last 5 with them as the host. The competition favourites have had at least one player score 2+ tries in each of the last three meetings. Papenhuyzen, Coates and Meaney are on that list with Pappy having scored 2+ tries on three prior occasions against the Warriors.
Stats That Matter
A 9-2 record as a home favourite in the last year highlights how difficult it is to come away from AAMI Park with premiership points. The Over has hit in 69% of Storm home games played in the last 12 months which tells us that the Warriors will need to score more than the 21ppg they have averaged so far this season. The Warriors have outperformed market expectations in this spot by covering the line in 6 of their last 7 as an away underdog.
Prediction
It was a scoop for bettors in last week’s Storm game with the best bet (Over 47.5 points), value bet (61 points or more) and multi (Storm WIN, Both teams 20+ points, Saab Anytime Tryscorer) all grabbing the cash. The Warriors have had time to prepare a game plan, but the Storm would have put 60+ on the Sea Eagles if they hadn’t given several of their stars an early shower. They have scored 30+ points in their last 5 games at this ground, and I expect that streak to continue.
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -16.5 ($1.90)
Value: Storm 13+/61 Points or more ($3.95)
Same Game Multi: Over 51.5 points, Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer, Grant Anderson Anytime Tryscorer ($3.76)
A fortnight ago, we were talking about the Tigers finals prospects but two weeks on they have suffered consecutive losses which has pushed them down to 11th place. There will be several changes to the side that went down to the Broncos with Luai, Samuela Fainu and Seyfarth back on deck. In contrast, the Knights sustained several injuries last week with Schiller (concussion), Cogger (finger) and Saifiti (calf) all unavailable.
Head To Head
We may be only 6 rounds into the competition, but this is the second time that these two teams face off this season. The Knights were 10-8 winners in Round 1 in a game where they completed only 64% of sets and made 16 errors. It was their 7th consecutive win over the Tigers in a stretch where they have won and covered the line in the last three meetings played at McDonald Jones Stadium. Many of their recent clashes have been tough to watch with very few points scored. In fact, 5 of the last 7 encounters have produced no more than 34 total match points. Fletcher Sharpe has 5 tries in his last two against the Tigers while Marzhew has scored at least once in 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Stats That Matter
The Knights have been a different side when they play in Newcastle – especially when installed as the betting favourite. They are 4-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 games at McDonald Jones Stadium and have successfully covered the line in 5 of their last 6 as a home favourite. An 8-3 line record on the back of a loss in the last year suggests we will see a different side to the one that failed to score against the Bulldogs. The Under is 5-0 in Knights matches this season with an incredibly low average of 27.0 total match points per game. They currently have the worst attack in the NRL with an average of only 10.5ppg.
Prediction
There is no excuse for a side that has a backline of Ponga, Best, Gagai and Marzhew to have averaged 10.5ppg. The tactic of getting Ponga closer to the ball (1st and 2nd receiver) has failed miserably and they need to revert to getting him the ball out the back in space so that he can isolate defenders. The Tigers were excellent in the first 30 minutes against the Broncos but folded under the relentless pressure thereafter. Cannot see the Knights replicating that and have them holding their own defensively – particularly with Luai and Fainu back on the left edge. The Unders is close to the bet of the round with the Tigers every chance of causing an upset.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Alternate Handicap Tigers +6.5, 31-40 Total Match Points, Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer ($12.79)