Evan Psarras previews Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
The Raiders raised plenty of eyebrows with wins in their first two games, but they have since lost their last two games since – both away from home. They now head back to the nation’s capital where they will host a Sharks side that also tasted defeat last time out. They went down as firm favourites at home to the Bulldogs and were held to a single try in the 20-6 loss. They will be without the duo of Iro (hamstring) and Talakai (concussion) with Hiroti and Hazelton stepping in. For the Raiders, Trey Mooney misses out with Smithies returning from concussion protocols.
Head To Head
The Green Machine were a real bogey side for the Sharks and at one stage through to 2023 had won 9 in a row against the Cronulla side. The script has flipped in the last two seasons with the Sharks winning the last three clashes – all by a margin of 13+ points. This is part of the reason why they have been installed as favourites here, but it is not a tag they have lived up to having covered the line successfully in only 5 of their last 14 attempts as the betting elect in this matchup. Ronaldo Mulitalo has 4 tries in his last 4 appearances against the Raiders with the Over having hit in 8 of the last 12 meetings hosted by the Raiders.
Stats That Matter
Home ground advantage has been valuable for the Raiders. They are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 home games and have won 4 of their last 5 games played at GIO Stadium. The Sharks have posted an impressive 5-2 line record in their last 7 games as an away favourite, but a low scoring contest would make it harder to cover the start. The Under is 4-0 in the Sharks last 4 games as the betting favourite with an average of 40.8 total match points in their four games played so far this season. Despite a 2-2 record the Sharks have limited their opposition to 18ppg so far this season but it is worth noting that they have conceded 20+ points in 4 of their last 5 away games.
Prediction
This will be a battle between two of the bigger packs in the NRL and the team that wins that duel will give their team the best chance of winning. With that in mind, I expect both teams to focus heavily on completing their sets and getting to their kick. Weekes is sure to be tested by a barrage of bombs from Hynes and Trindall but if he can hold on to most of them, the Raiders are a good chance of causing an upset. Their effort early in games has been excellent and like the Bulldogs did last week, they will put the sharks on the back foot from the outset. The Unders is the best bet.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 46.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Raiders 1-12 ($3.35)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1–12 Either Teams By Under 12.5, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer, Alternate Total Under 51.5 points ($4.95)
The Panthers loss to the Rabbitohs was the first time since 2019 that they lost three consecutive games. In what has become a pattern in their games this season, they were caught off guard in the early stages before managing to claw their way back. The return of Nathan Cleary is a huge boost, but the injury list continues to grow with Brian To’o and Sorensen the latest casualties. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have the luxury of going with the same 17 that earned their first points of the season courtesy of a 30-20 win over the Raiders in Round 4.
Head To Head
Their last meeting came during the Origin period last season with the Cowboys posting a stunning upset win. They have had a fair run against the Panthers in recent seasons with wins in 3 of the last 5 clashes overall. There have been 46+ total points in 4 of the last 4 meetings with both teams scoring 20+ points in 2 of the last 4. Liam Martin is the best option in the tryscorer markets as he has crossed for a try in each of his last two appearances against the Cowboys.
Stats That Matter
Choosing CommBank as their temporary home ground while they renovate Panthers Stadium may not have been the best idea for the Panthers as they are 0-5 at the line in their last 5 games at this ground. Their defence continues to struggle with 29.5ppg allowed this season which is comparable to the Cowboys 31ppg conceded through four rounds. The Panthers have a 40% success rate at the line in the last year as the beating favourite and are again giving away a big start here. Scott Drinkwater is one to keep an eye on as he has scored at least once in each of the Cowboys last four games played in the harbour city.
Prediction
There is no doubt that the return of Cleary will transform the Panthers attack but a big reason why they are struggling this season is that they are not winning the yardage battle. They rank 8th in run metres per game – a department which they have completely dominated during their four-peat. The absence of Edwards and To’o will have an impact on their ability to get out of their own end which will make it harder for them to pin the Cowboys on their own line. Moreover, their defence has been vulnerable which makes it extremely difficult to cover lines of this size.
Tips
Best Bet: Cowboys +13.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Both Teams To Score 20+ Points – YES, Drinkwater Anytime Tryscorer, Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer ($5.82)
The oldest rivalry in rugby league resumes with the return of Latrell Mitchell adding further fireworks to the contest. He has been named in the centres with Jye Gray retaining the fullback spot on the back of an impressive start to the season. Tass shifts to the wing to cover the injured Alex Johnston but as has been the case for more than three decades, there is nothing that veteran coach Wayne Bennett cannot navigate his way through. The Roosters welcome back Connor Watson but Victor Radley cannot catch a break after sustaining a cheekbone injury.
Head To Head
The Roosters have successfully completed the season double against their biggest rivals in each of the last two seasons with an average winning margin of 16.5 points across those four games. The Bunnies have a losing record in their last 10 as a home favourite in this series (4-6) with 44 or fewer total match points in 7 of their last 9 meetings at Accor Stadium. Containing James Tedesco has been an issue for the Rabbitohs with the enigmatic fullback scoring 5 tries in his last 3 in this series including a double in each of the two encounters last season.
Stats That Matter
When the Rabbitohs are playing well it is on the back of solid defence. The Under is 4-0 in their 4 games played this season and 7-2 in their last 9 games following a win. The Under has held on in the Roosters last two but that is mainly due to problems with attack as they have posted a total of only 18 points across those games. The Rabbitohs have won their last 3 as a home favourite and have successfully covered the line in two of those games. Despite losing last week, the Roosters have an excellent bounce-back record having won 8 of their last 11 on the back of a loss. Latrell is likely to have an instant impact as he has scored a try in 5 of his last 6 games.
Prediction
The Under continues to be an excellent betting option in games involving the Rabbitohs as the Wayne Bennett style of football ensures that most of the game is played between the 20m lines. They continue to complete 80% of their sets and remain last in offloads – a clear directive from the mastermind. This will help them contain the likes of Tedesco and put the kicking games of Townsend and Sandon Smith under the microscope. The Unders is one of the best bets of the round with Latrell to provide the polish that will provide the Rabbitohs with a narrow win.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs 1-12, Latrell Mitchell anytime Tryscorer, James Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer ($14.99)
The Eels and rookie coach Jason Ryles are still chasing their first win of the season after going down handily to the Sea Eagles 26-12. In contrast, the Dragons claimed their first win of the season by upsetting the competition favourites (Melbourne) 14-8 on a rainy afternoon in Kogarah. Riley Smith has been given the no.9 jersey for the home side while for the visitors, a 3-game suspension to Emre Guler will see Toby Couchman partner Klemmer in the front row. The big news heading into this one is Clint Gutherson’s return to CommBank Stadium – the place where was given the nickname ‘King Gutho’.
Head To Head
This will be the sixth consecutive clash between them to be played at CommBank Stadium with the Eels winning the last three. The Eels have posted an impressive 9-3 line record in the last 12 games as the host which includes covering the line in all four games as the outsider. There has been an average of 64 total match points across their last three clashes with at least two players scoring 2+ tries in each of those games and a total of three hat-tricks in the last two.
Stats That Matter
Points have been the Eels achilles heel through the opening month of the season. They have scored the fewest points (44) and conceded the most (130) which is a very concerning sign. A 6-13 line record in games after a loss in the last year paints a grim picture and the points are likely to flow from the opposition as the Over has hit in 6 of the Dragons last 9 following a win. If there is any hope for the hosts, it is the Dragons inconsistency as they are a very poor 2-7 both straight up and at the line in their last 9 on the back of a win.
Prediction
Cannot have any piece of the Eels here. They have offered nothing in attack all season long and more than half of their points (24 of 44) have come in the final 15 minutes when they have been well beaten. There is also the added element of Clint Gutherson returning to the club that turned their backs on him. He has been the Dragons best with 7 try assists in his first three games wearing the Red V. he will be a man on a mission and is a great bet for anytime tryscorer and to score 2+ tries.
Tips
Best Bet: Dragons -4.5 ($1.96)
Value: Clint Gutherson To Score 2 or More Tries ($6.60)
Same Game Multi: Dragons WIN, Gutherson Anytime Tryscorer, Eels Under 21.5 points ($4.30)
The Titans are coming off a rare win in Sydney where they were better than the Roosters in all facets of the game. Aj Brimson, Jayden Campbell and Tino all got on the scoresheet in the 30-12 win and their key players will all be available here. Jolliffe and Randall come into the side with Verills (hip) and Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui (ankle) unavailable. The Dolphins remain winless following a 20-12 loss to the Broncos, but they must be given credit for what was a gritty performance. Only once change to report with Max Plath moving to lock to cover Tom Gilbert (suspended) and Lemuelu slotting into the back row.
Head To Head
This will be the 5th edition of this Queensland derby with the Dolphins leading the H2H 3-1. They won the first three clashes with the Titans breaking the drought with a 21-14 win in their most recent battle. The Titans have had some joy through the centres with Sami (3) and Kelly (2) combining for 5 tries in this series. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with an average of 44.25 total points across the four encounters between them.
Stats That Matter
The Dolphins will be desperate to end a 5-game losing streak, but the numbers are against them here. They have lost their last 7 away games and have a 30% win rate as an away underdog in the last year. The Under is 6-0 in their last 6 games and their games this year have produced an average of only 37 total match points per game. The Titans have posted an impressive 8-3 line record in home games played in the last year and have covered the line in 6 of their last 9 following a win. The Dolphins have opened the scoring only once this season and cannot afford for this trend to continue as they have won less than 17% of games when trailing at half time from 2024 onwards.
Prediction
As long as the Dolphins continue to stick to their current game plan, we will continue to back the Unders. They have been conservative with their 5th tackle options and there has been no indication of this changing. Despite being 0-4, they have applied themselves well in key areas including kick/chase. The duo of Farnworth and Bostock combined for 50 runs last week and more of that will ensure that they are in the contest. Tabuai-Fidow has been disappointing and will have to inject himself substantially more if the Dolphins are to improve their record.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 52.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Titans WIN, Brian Kelly Anytime Tryscorer, Bostock Anytime Tryscorer ($7.23)
The Broncos improved to 3-1 with a tough 20-12 win over the Dolphins but the Tigers’ quest for a third consecutive win for the first time since 2018 came up short. They let a winning lead slip in the closing stages and would eventually go down 26-24 to the Warriors. The news gets worse for the Tigers with Latu Fainu replacing Jarome Luai (suspended). The Broncos have a suspension of their own (Jordan Riki) but Brendan Piakura will step in to cover him. Adam Doueihi was a late withdrawal last week for the Tigers and is no guarantee to take the field this week.
Head To Head
This will come as a shock to most, but the Tigers have won 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series which includes 3 of the last 4 played at Suncorp Stadium. They have only played each other once in each of the last two seasons with the Broncos dominating. They were victorious 46-12 and 34-10 in those matches with the trio of Haas, Walsh and Staggs scoring two tries each across those games. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings hosted by the Broncos with an average of 58 total match points across those matches.
Stats That Matter
A huge win over the Roosters in Round 1 seems to have set the benchmark for the Broncos with respect to betting lines. They were double-digit favourites last week but failed to cover the line for the 8h time in their last 10 games when coming off a win. An 0-9 line record in their last 9 home games is a clear indication that they have been consistently overvalued in betting. The Tigers aren’t any better in this spot having covered the line in only 1 of their last 10 as a road underdog.
Prediction
When you consider just how adventurous the Broncos are and the sheer number of errors made by Walsh on his own, it is remarkable that they have made the 3rd fewest handling errors of any team! They have scored some incredible long range tries already this season, but we must give the Tigers defence some credit as they have held teams to 15ppg so far in 2025. The battle between Payne Haas and Terrell May up front will be a beauty and as we have seen on many occasions already this season, it is very difficult to cover lines of this size.
Tips
Best Bet: Tigers +17.5 ($1.90)
Value: Broncos 1-12 ($3.50)
Same Game Multi: Broncos Under 34.5 points, Gosiewski Anytime Tryscorer, Tigers Alternate Handicap +24.5 ($8.54)
The Sea Eagles were able to put the DCE contract saga to the side in a comfortable 26-12 win over the Eels, but it was not all good news. Tom Trbojevic picked up a knee injury (MCL) that will see him sidelined for some time with Josh Aloiai also ruled out. Hopoate goes to fullback with Faulalo and Sipley the two to come in. the Storm were disappointing in a road loss to the Dragons, but reigning Dally M winner Jahrome Hughes has been named on the extended bench after missing out last week. The current odds suggest that he will be playing.
Head To Head
A very limited number of teams have been able to match motors with the Storm in recent seasons, but the Sea Eagles are one of them. The H2H reads 3-3 across the last 6 meetings with each team holding down the fort at their respective home grounds. The Sea Eagles have won the last three battles at 4 Pines Park with all three contests decided by a margin of 10 points or less. The Eagles have been successful at the line in 7 of the last 11 encounters as a home underdog and the visitors will be hoping that Jahrome Hughes laces up the boots as he has crossed for a try in each of his last two battles against the Sea Eagles.
Stats That Matter
Resilience is one of the key factors to the Storms’ sustained success and they are the owners of two very incredible streaks. They don’t lose in the opening round, and they also do not lose two games in a row. They are 15-0 in their last 15 games following a loss and have recently relied on a blistering attack in this scenario. The Over has hit in 5 of their last 6 in the back of a defeat with 60+ total match points in all but one of those games. The Storm have averaged an incredible 42ppg in those matches and with the Over hitting in 10 of the Eagles last 14 after a win, 30 points may not be enough to win this game. Moreover, the Over is 9-1 in the Storms’ last 10 day games.
Prediction
The absence of Tom Trbojevic combined with the likely return of Hughes and the Storms’ incredible record after a defeat makes it difficult to look past the visitors. The Sea Eagles have a fantastic recent record at 4 Pines Park which includes covering the line in their last two as a home underdog. That said, I have the Storm pencilled in to score 30+ points and that will be enough for them to get the win, and for the Over to hit quite comfortably. Unlike
Tips
Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 61 points or more ($5.75)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Both Teams To Score 20+ points – YES, Saab Anytime Tryscorer ($5.87)
Four games into the season and there is only one team that is yet to taste defeat in 2025. It is not the Panthers or Storm, but a determined Bulldogs side. They held a quality Sharks side to a single try in a 20-6 win last week and have done it all in recent weeks without Burton and Kikau. This week they will rely on Morrin with Tupouniua suspended with Jacob Kiraz a chance of returning after being named on the extended bench. The Knights were horrendous in a 26-6 loss to the Titans prior to the bye but welcome back Leo Thompson who will face his future club.
Head To Head
Playing at home has almost been a disadvantage in this matchup as the away team has won 9 of the last 12 meetings. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the line in the last 5 as a home favourite with the Under holding on in 7 of the last 9 hosted by the Bulldogs. The losing team has been held to fewer than 20 points in each of the last 22 meetings so you can put a line through both teams scoring 20+ points. Despite an array of low-scoring clashes, Bradman Bes has scored at least one try in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Stats That Matter
The Bulldogs improve to 11-5 both straight up and at the line in their last 16 following a win but it is the total which continues to be the best play in this spot as the Under has held on in 81% of those games. The Under is 5-0 in the Knights last 5 games and there has been an average of only 29.3 total match points in their three games played so far this season. The Knights should benefit from the additional week off and they are notably 8-2 at the line in their last 10 when coming off a loss.
Prediction
There is no secret as to how the Bulldogs are going to play. They will rely on their effort and commitment in defence to wear teams down and it has worked a treat. The Knights attack has been disjointed to say the least so far this season, but they have had plenty of time to work on making adjustments since losing to the Titans. All things considered, the Under is the one bet we must have in this game, and it is definitely worth taking the Knights to cause an upset. Don’t like the idea of getting behind a Bulldogs attack that lacks spark to cover a start of more than a converted try.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Knights by 1-6 ($6.20)
Same Game Multi: Knights +6.5, Best Anytime Tryscorer, Bulldogs Under 24.5 points ($5.27)