Racing returns to Ellerslie on Saturday for a competive eight-race card.
The track is rated a Soft5 at publish, with the rail out 5m from the true position.
Auckland is possibly in for some torrential downpours on Friday, which will give the StrathAyr surface at Ellerslie a good run for its money.
It’s a bit of a guessing game to predict how the track will come up on Saturday, but I’ll be working on the basis that the track is in the Soft7/Heavy8 range.
Selections for each of the eight races out of Ellerslie below!
Wind Rush looks awfully hard to beat to kick things off at Ellerslie. He was unlucky not to win last start at Matamata and his prior form behind Willydoit stacks up well for this maiden contest. He now steps back up to the mile and gets the blinkers going on for this. I don’t think he’ll be too bother by a rain-effected track and he is clearly the horse to beat in this. Best bet on the card for mine.
Miss Parker’s debut effort for 6th beaten 9L was one that I’m willing to forgive, after she missed the start and looked to get a bit lost going left-handed. She had trialled well at Ellerslie prior to her debut and I think we can expect a vastly improved effort from her at her second career start. I don’t think she deserves to be the outsider of the field and I’d happily have a small each way play on her at the price.
Ramblin’ Rose was a bit stiff not to get the win last start at Pukekohe, where a lack of clear running for the first half of the straight coupled with a bad bob of the head on the line saw her beaten. She should handle the rain-effected going as well as any in this and she should be afforded a great run from the low draw. Deserved favourite, she looks ready to win.
Doddle looks the horse to beat for mine, in what is a very open field of stayers. She comes into this on the back of a last start win, beating the early favourite, Giacomo. She now gets Geroge Rooke in the saddle and maps to settle back off what looks to be a genuine tempo in this race. Happy to be with her on a 1×3 basis at the price.
Sexy And I Moet found the line well in the Wellington Guineas last start. She should be well and truly hitting peak fitness 4th up and looks suited getting on to a likely rain-effected surface here. She maps to get back off will likely be an even-genuine tempo, with New Recruit likely to carve across and put some speed into the race early. She’s over the odds for mine and I think she represents a good each way play in the race.
Latrelle was far from disgraced in the Gr.3 Cuddle Stakes at Trentham last start, where she finished a close up 6th. She now drops back into R75 company and I think she looks well placed to bounce back into winning form. A rain-effected track won’t hurt her chances and Michael McNab back in the saddle is a big tick.
Sacred Satono is the class horse in the race and has to carry a sizeable impost as a consequence. I’m hoping to see a positive ride early from Triston Moodley, as Pow Wow and You Say D’Orsay will likely cart him across into a handy position early in the race. He handles rain-effected tracks A-Ok too. If the best version of him shows up, he will take plenty of beating at a good price.
Astoria Brooke’s first-up run at Pukekohe can have a line put straight through it, given she wasn’t ridden out for the last 400m of the straight when locked up behind runners. She has shown she can handle rain-effected going and Michael McNab taking the steer is far from a negative for her chances. It looks as though this will be run at a genuine clip, which should play right into her hands. Another I’ll happily play on a 1×3 basis.