UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 23 March

It’s been a long road just to land back in ranked contention for Leon Edwards. His title-winning knockout over Kamaru Usman in 2022 – the head kick heard around the world – was one of the best stories of the year. His subsequent reign was a less impressive endeavor.

Follow-up defenses against Usman and Covington helped cement his reputation as an effective anti-wrestler but it all came crashing down last year. Belal Muhammad gave him something to remember, tossing him around the mat for five rounds and taking the title in the process.

For Edwards, some valid excuses are considered but ultimately don’t hide the defeat. Edwards has historically struggled with fighters who can apply pace, pressure, and a dedicated wrestling attack.

Ironically, some of the biggest wins of his career have come against wrestlers but it’s worth noting how listless Edwards has looked in recent years. Aside from a vendetta-fueled third fight with Usman, it’s safe to say Edwards has put on lackadaisical performances for the last four calendar years.

There is no doubting Edwards’ skill as a striker, but his spirit has been seen waning inside the cage. Edwards is an effective, accurate kickboxer with more power than he’s usually given credit for. Where he lacks is killer instinct and the ability to dig himself out of a hole.

Fighting again in front of a home crowd, UFC Fight Night 255 represents something of a last chance for Edwards to prove his dedication. The betting underdog, Edwards will not get past his foe this weekend with a meek performance; five rounds of hard effort will be needed to upset the odds.

An American upstart with a base in grappling, Sean Brady is fueled by a prior meeting with current champion Belal Muhammad in 2022. The result was the first and only loss of Brady’s career, but he has been perfect in competition since.

2-0 in MMA and also grabbing a win over Richie Martinez in a grappling competition, Brady often flexes his matwork as a fighter. Wrestling has been a process to develop but it’s always been clear that Brady is one of the best pure grapplers in the welterweight division.

His wrestling has picked up significantly in recent years and he is becoming an offensive force to be reckoned with. Brady has found a very successful game built around combinations on the feet, takedowns mixed in, and an overall aura of pressure to tie it all together.

Brady can be defensively liable but is clearly aware of the issue, especially since his singular defeat. Brady will not doggedly charge forward with no regard for himself, though he certainly boasts the gas tank and spirit to do so.

Rather, his typical game plan allows him to waste time moving around on the outside before steeling himself and pushing his foe back. His offensive bursts are both eye-catching and effective, letting him stay ahead of opponents without risking quite as much as he used to.

This stylistic clash is a familiar one for Leon Edwards but unquestionably difficult. Edwards’ takedown defense is solid and he has become a seasoned veteran in all aspects of the sport, but he doesn’t fight with the same vigor he once did. Once again relegated to a mere contender and forced to battle a hard-charging foe, Edwards’ confidence is apt to lapse again in this contest.

Brady is a beatable fighter but has worked hard to shore up weaknesses and put his strengths at the front of his game. Brady is likely to struggle consistently getting his hands on Edwards, especially early in this bout. But of the two, I expect Brady to gather momentum down the stretch and continue pursuing his game plan.

If Edwards isn’t ready to fight out of bad positions and have a challenging road to victory this weekend, he will fold and be overwhelmed by Brady. A future rematch between stylistically similar Brady and Muhammad seems an inevitability before their careers are done

Winner of his last seven in a row, Carlos Ulberg seems to be hitting his stride as he enters his mid-30s. A former kickboxer with extensive striking experience, Ulberg has leaned on that skill set to elicit a stellar finish rate and garner a lot of fans.

The part-time model has heavy hands but Ulberg has proven to be more a gimmick. With increasing comfort inside the cage, Ulberg has developed into a sharp, effective fighter who paces himself quite well.

The New Zealand native has the power to keep people from overwhelming him haphazardly but also owns the skills to pick opponent apart at range and win a quieter fight. Though the majority of his bouts end up being fairly entertaining, Ulberg is clearly finding himself more measured as his level of competition increases.

His resume progression continues this weekend when he takes on longtime contender and former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. A well-regarded and recognizable name, Blachowicz hasn’t competed since a split decision loss to Alex Pereira in 2023.

Layoffs are nothing particularly new to Blachowicz but at 42-years-old, time away from the sport due to injuries are not getting any easier to come back from. Despite the circumstances, Blachowicz is confident as he heads into a critical fight with a comparably young spark plug.

Blachowicz is a fighter many fans are already familiar with but the version we’ll see this weekend remains a question mark. The proud representative of Poland has fought to thin margins against elite opposition but has been out of action largely due to injuries.

1-1-1 dating back to 2022 and 3/8 on takedowns in that frame, it would be unwise to assume Blachowicz will doggedly wrestle as soon as he enters the cage. What remains is a potential lengthy striking bout against a younger, stronger, faster, sharper opponent in Carlos Ulberg.

The savvy veteran nature of Blachowicz has garnered great success and respect over the years, but this may be too large a challenge for the Polish contender to overcome. Look for Ulberg to keep things in his preferred domain at his preferred pace, notching a clean victory over the greatest opponent he’s faced yet.

Returning from a two-year layoff and still being the betting favorite should tell you a lot about the respect Gunnar Nelson has accumulated in his career. The stone-faced veteran who hails from Iceland first debuted in the UFC nearly 13 years ago. “Gunni” has been must-see viewing since.

Now 36-years-old, Nelson says he is motivated to return and inspire teammates. Mostly, it seems he is happy with the idea to go out there, win by submission, and disappear for a while again. He remains enigmatic both in and out of the cage.

If his most recent performances are anything to go off, Nelson still has plenty to offer in stylistic clashes like this one. With a base in both Karate and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Nelson is one of the most stylistically unique fighters in the division but ultimately does his best work on the mat.

To say Nelson is an effective grappler is an understatement. A fluid practitioner and a deeply experienced fighter, Nelson shows a level of forethought, composure, and execution on the mat that few are capable of.

On the feet, Nelson showcases that Karate background with a wide stance and bouncy footwork. He’s not as lethal a striker as other practitioners like Stephen Thompson but uses his footwork and awkward timing to find pockets of success on the feet. The end goal is always for Nelson to close the distance and drag the fight to the floor, but he has always been a more competent striker than his record suggests.

On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Holland brings a striking background and a love for brawls into every fight. The bonus-chasing American has had a long career that continues to chug along at a shockingly active pace.

Once regarded as a contender at both welterweight and middleweight, Holland has fallen into a rut. 1-4 in his last five, Holland’s motivation as a fighter has seemingly shifted from wins and higher rankings to bonuses and entertaining fans.

Holland has always been something of a loose cannon. Fighting crime outside of the cage and throwing hands inside, Holland is ready to scrap at any minute of any day but that has often been to his detriment.

Struggling with the physicality of middleweights, Holland is opting to move back down to welterweight for this outing. Despite that, it’s hard to expect more from Holland than he’s been offering in recent years.

Despite being a competent grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Holland has seemed largely uninterested in grappling unless absolutely necessary. Even then, he hasn’t been entirely impressive; dominant wins by Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze were brought about by grappling.

At this point, it’s hard to trust Kevin Holland to put forth his best effort. He is certainly capable of hurting and even stopping Gunnar Nelson in a striking bout but it’s unlikely he can do that before hitting his back.

On the mat, this doesn’t stand to be very competitive. Look for Nelson to take a couple minutes biding his time before dragging this down. From there, it will only be downhill momentum for Nelson as he ramps into a finish and another triumphant, if infrequent return.

Making her UFC debut after a clear win on Dana White’s Contender Series late last year, Alexia Thainara is already getting some hype headed into the weekend as the betting favorite. On paper, it looks like Thainara is a pure grappler but she doesn’t trend quite that way when she fights.

Though she lacks punching power, she isn’t afraid to strike. She keeps her hands fairly low and her footwork is balanced, though basic. Offensively she does quite well with deceptively quick hands and a solid read on distance.

Thainara is no striking expert but for her to be showing this level of versatility bodes well for her future. The Brazilian trains out of the “Ribas Family” gym where fellow female professional Amanda is the standout of the team.

This makes sense when one sees how Thainara strikes, but an absence of power takes something away from the poke-and-stalk nature of the style. The biggest thing most fans will be looking out for is Thainara’s grappling, which has proven effective on a regional circuit.

Thainara has never faced a high level of opposition and even on the lower end of the competitive spectrum, Thainara hasn’t shown an abundance of urgency to finish. She is certainly capable of ending fights on the mat, but Thainara really does seem to enjoy striking, ground and pound, and dealing damage with her hands despite a record that shows the majority of her wins by submission.

This all stands to match up entertainingly with Molly McCann, who will be entering UFC Fight Night 255 as one of the most popular fighters on the card. The Liverpool native is 1-2 in her last three and desperate to regain footing.

34-years-old and recognized as one of the best boxers in the division, McCann has sharp hands and is a truly dangerous striker. Possessing an inordinate amount of finishing capability, McCann is one of the few fighters to end two bouts with spinning elbows.

That striking prowess will be on display again this weekend as she is sure to have the advantage on the feet. A kickboxing bout will favor McCann but she finds herself the betting underdog due to a glaring weakness on the mat.

Takedown defense and grappling are two separate skill sets but McCann has somehow been deficient in both. With a meager 39% takedown defense and nearly half of her losses by submission, the blueprint to beating McCann has been established.

That said, there is a presumption Alexia Thainara will shoot for takedowns and immediately find success. I am doubtful of both the idea she will shoot regularly, and the notion McCann will hit her back without resistance.

This is a make-or-break fight for McCann as it represents a significant step down in competition from her usual partners. McCann has a clear win condition if she can keep this on the feet and I suspect Thainara will oblige at least a few minutes of striking time per round.

The more experienced athlete, look for McCann to handle the bright lights of the O2 Arena with poise and get a much-needed win over the prospect.

0-1 in the UFC after an unsuccessful debut last year, Jordan Vucenic finds himself the betting favorite to get back on his feet this weekend. UFC Fight Night 255 represents something of a homecoming for Vucenic, who originally hails from England.

Vucenic first got onto people’s radar when he ran through Cage Warriors and picked up some impressive wins in the process. Paul Hughes and Morgan Charriere both share a loss to Vucenic, though it’s worth noting how competitive those bouts were.

3 of 3 in split decisions, Vucenic very simply has a style that appeals to the judges. Output, takedown attempts, big slams, and a healthy dose of pressure make up the dogged game of Vucenic. He lacks a bit of savvy but there’s no doubting his determination inside the cage, not to mention his impressive resume.

A solid grappler who ultimately hopes to take things to the floor, Vucenic is strong and plucky but came up short in tough matchmaking against Guram Kutateladze. He finds a far simpler match-up in London this weekend.

Scotland’s Chris Duncan has already done a bit of over-achieving since entering the UFC and racking up a 3-1 record. Duncan came in off of Dana White’s Contender Series but never looked like the kind of fighter who would amass such a solid record right off the jump.

That said, Duncan will be forced to step up quite a bit for this weekend’s showdown. A striker by nature, Duncan stands to own an advantage on the feet but has bigger questions left to answer about his grappling hopes.

Duncan is a competent offensive wrestler in his own right but doesn’t seem to have the same proficiency defensively. Owning poor takedown defense and mediocre grappling skills off his back, Duncan does his best work when allowed to strike and keep his opponents moving backwards.

Unfortunately, Duncan may have difficulty pushing Vucenic back and he will certainly struggle if taken down. A fun but currently limited fighter, I expect Duncan to be pushed to his limits on the mat and finished by a determined and cohesive Vucenic.

2-1 in the UFC and a clear betting favorite this weekend, Morgan Charriere has always given people a reason to believe in him. A surgically precise and technically refined striker, Charriere is brilliant when he lets his offense go.

One of the most popular fighters in France, Charriere has always demonstrated flashes of stellar skill interposed by frustrating bouts of inactivity. His lone loss in the UFC exemplified the issue, as a decision that could have gone his way ultimately did not.

This is not a new issue for Charriere, who has been on the wrong end of multiple close decisions over the course of his career. There is no doubting his offensive excellence and overall efficiency, but he will need to be present and active for every round at UFC Fight Night 255.

England’s Nathaniel Wood may be the underdog but thinks of this weekend as a night for him. He will own the crowd in the O2 Arena as he opens the main card, but every minute of this contest is going to be hard-fought.

Wood has been in the UFC since 2018 quietly picking up wins and even making an eventual shift from bantamweight to his current home of featherweight. 8-3 in the organization, Wood is deceptively effective at what he does despite a no-frills style that has failed to elicit many finishes.

Well-conditioned and ceaselessly durable, Wood has held up particularly well since moving up in weight. The basis of his style is pressure and output but it’s a boon that he has the durability to survive shots that slip through.

Wood is not an overwhelming puncher but he plugs away at opponents from the opening bell and relishes their resistance waning as the fight wears on. Wood will have difficulty finding a place for the majority of his strikes, but his willingness to throw and continue following a foe even when he’s missing will be a key asset.

There is little question Morgan Charriere is the cleaner fighter overall. If fights were judged on technical proficiency, Charierre may be undefeated as a professional. But Wood’s output is sure to make things competitive here, and the hope is Charriere will rise to the occasion and meet the pressure appropriately.

I expect Wood to make a good argument for victory here – anything less would surprise me. But ultimately I will lean the way of Charriere to get the better work done and tilt the scales in his favor after three hard rounds.