UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 16 March

Known as “The Italian Dream” and one of the most prominent mixed martial artists from Italy, Marvin Vettori finds himself favored to snatch victory yet again. Facing a familiar foe he already conquered in 2023, it isn’t a surprise to see Vettori favored despite a 17-month layoff headed into this bout.

The 31-year-old Vettori hasn’t competed in MMA since crossing his third decade of life but you get what you expect from the Italian representative. He has undoubtedly improved in sizable leaps since his UFC debut in 2016 but stylistically remains much the same fighter he ever was.

Mildly dangerous everywhere, Vettori is well-conditioned, exceptionally durable, and typically fairly aggressive. Where he comes up short is when he doubts himself and hesitates to let his offense go. Whether self-imposed or forced, Vettori’s biggest vulnerabilities show when he’s hanging out at distance doing too much thinking.

When the bulldog behaves appropriately, results tend to go his way. The longer fights go, the more Vettori can settle into a rhythm. He isn’t an overwhelming fighter but he’s consistent, banging away at opponents until they fade and allow Vettori to dictate the pace.

The Italian has been out of action since 2023 due to a swath of injuries to his shoulder that required surgery and a lengthy recovery period. Vettori is bound to be comfortable in this comeback though as he returns against Roman Dolidze, a foe he already outpointed.

Dolidze has gone 2-1 since losing to Vettori and argues he is an evolved, improved fighter from their first meeting. A clear win over Anthony Smith helped prove his point but there are still questions worth asking when it comes to the 36-year-old.

A dangerous grappler with high finishing potential, Dolidze has worked on spreading out his offense to be more effective over the entire fight. He continues to be a front-loaded offensive fighter but credit is due for his pacing and consistency developments.

That said, the case that stood in 2023 remains true in 2025 as Dolidze will always have trouble finding a finish over Vettori. The durability of Vettori allows him to time to work and this bout being five rounds as opposed to their original three will benefit the Italian.

Dolidze has only been five rounds once and was completely dominated by statistics, outputting a paltry amount of volume over the duration. Vettori stands to replicate some of that success, forcing Dolidze to choose between energy-inefficient bursts or consistent, but low-volume offense.

The margins may be a bit thin as Vettori gets his legs back under him and grows in comfort. By the halfway point of this bout, it should be clear Vettori is pulling away and settling into a similar rhythm they found last time.

Fresh off a huge win over an opponent ten years his junior, Elizeu Zaleski is 1-1-1 in his last three and looks to still have some life in his legs. The 38-year-old is approaching a decade in the UFC and has been good for a number of entertaining fights and finishes through the years.

The Brazilian veteran remains durable and still outputs some heavy offense. He is best in the first half of a bout but has proven his ability to persist. There is no doubting his effectiveness inside the cage, and his stellar resume only boosts his legacy.

That said, Zaleski is still in the twilight of his career much like his opponent at UFC Fight Night 254. The best years of Zaleski are behind him but most pertinent to this weekend, he has not yet become fragile or gun-shy.

Zaleski is willing to let his hands go and he is deceptively sharp for someone as weathered as he is. Zaleski hasn’t been finished since 2019 and he will not shy away from a hard-fought bout with Chidi Njokuani.

A fellow striker with a background in Muay Thai, Chidi Njokuani is the younger brother of longtime veteran Anthony. Both brothers have competed professionally in Muay Thai and bring stellar striking to the table.

Njokuani, now 36-years-old has won his last two in a row and surprisingly had to go the distance to do it. Historically, Njokuani does his best work in the first seven minutes or so but clearly begins to fall off a cliff from there. Conditioning has never been the strong suit of Njokuani, who both throws with heavy hands and cuts quite a lot of weight to make the welterweight limit.

Despite the longevity issues, Njokuani can be a devastating offensive fighter when he’s fresh. The thudding power of Njokuani is apparent but it’s hard not to be impressed with the technical proficiency of the striking savant.

Once upon a time, it looked like Njokuani could become a legitimate contender. Fatigue and durability have proven too heavy an anchor for him to overcome, and he may yet be victimized by the same issues again this weekend.

I expect both to go to war early and the first round may be one of the most exciting of the night. If it goes past the initial five minutes, I anticipate Zaleski to demonstrate more staying power down the stretch. Don’t blink when the opening bell rings for this one.

Favored this weekend and fresh off a triumphant end to 2024, Alexander Hernandez was last in action outpointing Austin Hubbard over three rounds. The win wasn’t the dominant affair Hernandez may have wanted but it was a much-needed victory for Hernandez after a rough stretch.

2-3 in his last five, Hernandez has struggled to find his footing and maintain consistency. He’s managed to climb back to 7-7 in the UFC overall but watching him, it feels as if the full potential of Hernandez has seemingly never been met.

Known as “The Great Ape”, Hernandez can do a bit of everything but needs to stay active to yield his best results. He is defensively liable but that doesn’t change under any circumstances, so it behooves him to just let offense go.

Hernandez hasn’t been wrestling much in recent outings and tends to lean on takedown defense more than anything. If he is allowed to get into a rhythm, he can output solid offense and consistently win minutes with aggression.

An unsung bout in the middle of an unsung card, these two may just match up for a Fight of the Night contender. Kurt Holobaugh is certainly willing to do his part and also enters this bout off of an important win.

Most recently taking a decision over Kaynan Kruschewsky, the all-offense Holobaugh is 2-1 since rejoining the UFC in 2023. Known as “Hurt”, Kurt is an aggressive, persistent fighter who can apply pressure in every avenue.

Holobaugh is no defensive wizard in his own right but that doesn’t dissuade him from attacking, even if its to his detriment. Holobaugh’s takedown defense is mediocre but he grapples fairly aggressively and is often in pursuit of a finish.

He’s maintained an impressive finish rate of roughly 80% and continues to strive for an early night even as a seasoned 38-year-old veteran. The Americans match up well with each other and I expect a chaotic fight to break out between these two.

Hernandez is rightfully favored as the bigger, stronger, and arguably more consistent fighter but Holobaugh is going to bring the action and force the best out of Hernandez. That said, it’s hard to ignore the physical advantages Hernandez is likely to own in this bout.

Though the shorter man, Hernandez is likely to be stronger and will surely enjoy that advantage in any tie-ups. If anyone gets their wrestling going it will be Hernandez but I expect the majority of this bout to take place on the feet – another area Hernandez holds an edge.

Dominance is unlikely for either man but I can see Hernandez taking a hard-fought victory after three exciting and potentially narrow rounds. No matter the winner, fans should get a good show with this one.

3-3 in the UFC overall, the last few years have been a roller coaster for Da’Mon Blackshear. Flashes of brilliance have been crushed by stifling, experienced competitors but Blackshear managed to get back to winning ways to close 2024.

Most recently submitting Cody Stamann in a dominant affair, Blackshear looks ready to recapture momentum. The 30-year-old looks like a pure grappler on paper but that is simply where he is most dangerous.

Blackshear has developed his striking significantly in recent years; it would probably be doing him a disservice to only call him ‘competent’ in that area. Despite this, Blackshear does remain a bona fide threat on the mat.

One of the few fighters to have hit the twister submission in MMA, Blackshear will not shy from tie-ups even with wrestlers. Aggressive and dynamic on the ground, Blackshear is more than capable of sinking in finishes before fighters can consolidate control on him.

He is reasonably favored to extend his win streak into 2025 when he takes on the grinding Cody Gibson. A lifelong wrestler with a penchant for aggression, Gibson is 37-years-old and 2-2 since rejoining the UFC.

Though his initial run with the organization a decade ago was nothing to remember fondly, Gibson has made the most of his second chance. Carrying a two-fight win streak into this match-up, Gibson managed to show off some of his best in conquering Brian Kelleher and Chad Anheliger.

A high-octane fighter who likes pushing a pace, Cody Gibson brings an intriguing skill set to the table as a former collegiate wrestler. Despite pushing 40, he still enjoys charging forward and shooting for takedowns.

Historically, he does quite well when he’s able to secure them. If he gets his opponent down, his win rate is astronomically high, particularly in recent years. This weekend serves a slightly different challenge though, as he may find stiff and dangerous resistance on the mat against Da’Mon Blackshear.

Both of these fighters have proven they can hang in fun, exciting, and high-volume striking bouts but I am doubtful Gibson will have a true advantage on the feet. Rather, his victory may rely on being able to get Blackshear down and nullify his sneaky submission attempts.

Heavy odds favor Blackshear but there is a path to victory for Gibson. While I expect Blackshear to eventually slink his way to a submission win, expect Gibson to have success in this bout and win some minutes.

The second time was the charm for Kevin Vallejos as he punched a ticket to the UFC after a rousing win on Dana White’s Contender Series. A first round KO six months ago served as something of a redo for Vallejos, who had previously come up short against Jean Silva in a prior Contender Series bout.

The Argentine is a sharp striker who will quickly earn fans in the UFC. Owning electric boxing with real power in his hands, Vallejos is one of the few strikers in MMA to consistently attack the body mid-combination.

Vallejos’ diversity in attacks have yielded impressive results. Though he is an aggressive fighter who can occasionally get caught up in a war, he tends to remain quite composed and certainly owns a technical edge over the majority of his opposition.

The exciting prospect has many questions left unanswered but this weekend represents a familiar type of fight for him. Standing across from Vallejos at UFC Fight Night 254 will be Seung Woo Choi, a fellow striker who believes in his punching power until the end.

1-3 in his last four, Choi has struggled to stay consistent while looking to brawl his way to wins. A heavy-handed fighter who often throws caution to the wind in pursuit of a finish, Choi is exciting viewing but he often fights to his own detriment.

One cannot help but wonder how much better he would fare if he zeroed in on his technical prowess and tried to pick opponents apart. What we get is an aggressive, hard-charging South Korean who is willing to wing shots and let the chips fall where they may.

That has resulted in some chaotic bouts where Choi looks to be one good shot away from a win. Recent outings have seen that one good shot go against him, as he’s been finished in two of his last three losses.

When two powerful strikers clash and start throwing leather, there’s a chance for anything to happen. But styles make fights and Vallejos is by far the sharper striker and the man with all the upside heading into the weekend. Look for a short-lived but exciting contest where Vallejos gets his hand raised yet again.