UFC 313 Preview & Tips | Sunday 9 February

The ascent of Alex Pereira has been nothing short of remarkable. A career of ups and downs in kickboxing culminated in world championships and a cemented reputation as one of the hardest hitting and dangerous strikers in the sport. Naturally, a proper transition to MMA was next.

Pereira was taken down twice in his first two UFC bouts but tuned up his takedown defense significantly since. Coupled with his deadly striking, Pereira has found great success and maintained a remarkable finish rate.

At this point, Pereira is in the midst of a historic stride. Three title defenses are down and only two remain to tie Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz for most defenses.

Under the tutelage of experienced coaches like Glover Teixeira and Plinio Cruz, the Brazilian powerhouse has improved noticeable as a fighter. Though his developments in awareness and staving off takedowns are obvious, it’s worth noting how much better of a striker he is now.

Compared to his UFC debut in 2021, Pereira displays a much larger variety of tools both offensively and defensively. His counter-punching has become some of the best in the division, leading to both a win over Jamahal Hill and inspiring Hill’s next opponent to fight in a similar manner.

I won’t spend more time detailing how impressive Pereira is or has become, as most viewers are well aware of his accomplishments.

Now 37-years-old, Pereira has no excuse for key areas left under-developed as he finally takes on inevitable challenger Magomed Ankalaev. Hailing from Dagestan but best known for his striking, Ankalaev has experienced just about every thing there is to besides winning gold.

11-1-1 with a No Contest to add, Ankalaev nearly secured the vacant UFC title when he took on Jan Błachowicz in 2022. What many thought would be the begin of Ankalaev’s reign ended up being five underwhelming rounds ending in a draw.

Now, Ankalaev gets another shot at the belt he craves, though under less than ideal circumstances. Forced to take the fight during Ramadan or else lose his guarantee to Pereira, the practicing Muslim has even broken his fast several times this week to ensure a better weight cut.

Despite the mental and physical struggles, Ankalaev is still poised to give Pereira a stiff challenge this weekend. A well-rounded competitor, Ankalaev has experience in wrestling and is a competent grappler but typically prefers to get things done on the feet.

Expressing an interest to handle this like a true mixed martial artist, looking at Ankalaev in a vacuum certainly gives confidence he can attack Pereira in multiple areas. In reality, Ankalaev’s wrestling threat has been more myth than magic.

His career has shown he is well-aware of how to execute takedowns. But they take more energy and have far worse set-ups and entries than one would like if they expect him to wrestle his way to a win at UFC 313.

Ankalaev is measured, skilled, and technically sound as a striker but is prone to lapses in output. This issue is compounded by experienced fighters who can freeze him up with feints, and I am doubtful he will even put out enough offense to meaningfully win rounds on the feet.

Much like the masses, I believe Ankalaev’s best chance at victory lies in a determined game plan built around takedowns. Unfortunately, I doubt his ability to drag Pereira to the mat consistently enough to snatch a win over five rounds.

Ankalaev has never shown much willingness or ability to submit people and Pereira is particularly strong at nullifying the offensive grappling of his opponents. Expecting Ankalaev to secure takedowns and maintain control for at least three rounds is a tough sell, particularly during Ramadan.

The timing is precise, the momentum is contrasting, and the circumstances look right for “Poatan” to do what he does best. There may be slow early minutes, but I anticipate them to be broken open by Pereira’s power after fatigue sets in on Ankalaev.

Same Game Multi: Pereira Wins By KO/TKO + Pereira 60+ Significant Strikes

Looking at the odds, one would believe Rafael Fiziev was surging en route to his showdown this weekend. But in reality, Fiziev is looking to shake a two-fight skid, come back from an injury-induced layoff, against a previous rival who beat him, and do all of it on one week notice.

After over a year out of action due to an injury and subsequent recovery, Fiziev takes this bout on short notice to replace an injured Dan Hooker. The circumstances may be working against Fiziev but he was established as the betting favorite and money has only flowed in on him.

It was nearly two years ago to the day Fiziev and Gaethje first squared off, with Gaethje walking away as the majority decision winner. In the wake of the competitive and entertaining bout, Fiziev was injured in his next fight while Gaethje went to war with Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway.

Despite the layoff from a sanctioned bout, Fiziev has stayed busy as a primary instructor at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. Now 36-years-old, Fiziev is ready to seize his opportunity to leapfrog up the lightweight ranks.

A vaunted striker with a justifiably imposing reputation, Fiziev is tremendously skilled and remarkably seasoned. Effective from both stances, Fiziev does his best work when he trusts himself and lets his offense go.

To this day, Fiziev’s offense remains his most dangerous characteristic. Versatile and sharp, he needs to output reliable damage to overcome his mediocre defense. There’s no denying his proficiency as a striker overall but he is more than willing to absorb a shot to give his own; that has led to several narrow and competitive bouts with “lesser skilled” opposition.

That trend isn’t likely to change as he enters on short notice against a man also vowing to showcase offense. Known as “The Highlight”, Justin Gaethje has been must-see viewing for over a decade, spanning back to his days in the World Series of Fighting (WSOF).

Though Gaethje has tempered his aggression a bit in recent years, he has stated an interest in going forward and seeking a finish this time. Considering he has received over a dozen bonuses in his UFC career, it’s an easy thing to believe.

Infamously on the receiving end of 2024’s KO of the Year, Gaethje’s 11-month layoff is likely to do him well after a busy schedule of brawls.

Tasked with a three-round affair, I expect both men to come out strong and try setting the tempo. Durability is a common trait here and the output should be flowing from both sides as soon as the bell rings.

Gaethje is unquestionably the harder hitter but enters this fight with a similar technical disadvantage he did the first time. Despite that, he has proven the ability to keep up with Fiziev on the feet and even found advantages in short clinch exchanges.

If this were being contested with a full training camp behind both, I would better understand the faith in Fiziev. Given the circumstances he enters UFC 313 with, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fiziev start strong and fade down the stretch in another high-paced fight.

Gaethje’s future is being called into question by some largely due to a tough but not embarrassing defeat last time out. This seems a bit of an overreaction as Gaethje has already proven the ability to handle Fiziev’s best and may find comfort in the match-up.

Riding a two-fight win streak with as many finishes, Ignacio Bahamondes is hitting his stride and beginning to fulfill some of his massive potential. A mere 27-years-old, Bahamondes earned highlight reel knockouts (and accompanying bonuses) in his last two bouts and moved to 5-2 overall in the UFC.

Bahamondes has certainly had some ups and downs in the organization, even losing his debut, but has started to look like the fighter he was always capable of being. Fast, deceptively powerful, with a deep arsenal on the feet, Bahamondes moves well, kicks often, outputs volume, and does a lot of fun things in the cage.

The young fighter will meet an interestingly similar match in Jalin Turner, a lanky American who also loves staying busy and finishing fights on the feet. A minor underdog this weekend, Turner came up short last time out against Renato Moicano but won some fans in the process.
Turner nearly finished the bout in the first round but failed to secure it and ultimately faded, getting finished in the next frame. Despite the hiccup, Turner maintains a reputation as a deadly striker with underrated versatility.

The American owns a couple of slick submission wins but generally prefers to get things done on the feet. He isn’t particularly fast but he is strong and throws a regular array of long kicks to wear his foes down.

All positives aside, Turner has still lost three of his last four and has struggled to find his footing in recent years. He’s sharp, powerful, and certainly has upside in the future but finds a difficult match-up at UFC 313.

Both men have shown great capabilities throughout their career but it is Bahamondes who seems to be putting everything together in the most cohesive fashion. His most recent victory – a huge KO over Manuel Torres – helped showcase his growing skill set and relevant power.

Turner is an offensive juggernaut in his own right but has faltered in multiple facets. Bahamondes’ volume will pose enough of a problem that Turner will need to fight his way out of danger, but that alone will challenge his gas tank and call into question his success down the stretch.

No matter how its sliced, Bahamondes stands to exploit the shortcomings of Turner and come out ahead on the majority of exchanges. I have to side with the more consistent fighter on an upward trend here.

A mere 23-years-old, Iasmin Lucindo has been rising up the ranks quickly and already amassed a 4-1 record in the UFC. That lone defeat came in her organizational debut, at the hands of solid prospect Yazmin Jauregui, did little to harm Lucindo’s stock and subsequent victories have impressed.

Lucindo has notched four in a row and her most recent win came in her biggest step up. A split decision went her way against Marina Rodriguez and though the verdict is debated, there’s no denying Lucindo’s potential as a contender.

Stylistically, Lucindo is competent on the feet but has actually found her best success when finishing takedowns. In fact, she has won every fight she secured a takedown in dating back to 2022.

That isn’t to say she is useless on the feet, but Lucindo’s best win condition typically lies on the mat and that remains true as she enters a huge UFC 313 match-up.

37-years-old and looking to start 2025, Amanda Lemos went 1-1 last year and came up short in her most recent appearance. It was a win over one grappler (Mackenzie Dern) that set Lemos up to battle another (Virna Jandiroba), but Jandiroba proved to be too overwhelming.

Physically, Lemos is not used to being dominated. A powerful woman with a strength advantage over most of her opposition, Lemos is a seasoned and explosive fighter with surprising longevity.

Though defensively absent, Lemos is an offensive powerhouse who can win minutes and fights anywhere. Her right hand has legitimate stopping power and she’s still showing signs of improvement even as she pushes 40.

That said, she will be fending off takedown attempts in this bout and that is an area she has been lacking in. Lemos is solid almost everywhere but doesn’t do particularly well off her back.

When faced with serious takedown threats, Lemos’ offense tends to subside. She loses confidence letting her hands go, and that compounds passivity that her opponents take advantage of. Lucindo seems just the type to exploit that characteristic.

Look for Lucindo to pass another test as she steps up and takes down her countryman Lemos. Takedowns will be the name of the game and Lucindo should find comfort winning minutes from top position.

The biggest betting favorite on the card, Mauricio Ruffy is thrilled to put on a show to open UFC 313’s main card. The Brazilian has been representing Fighting Nerds for a few years now and is one of their most impressive talents.

Striking is the forte of Ruffy and he has already garnered highlights in only two organizational bouts. Though he was unable to finish his last opponent, Ruffy did land at a particularly accurate rate and showed some flashy techniques at the same time.

Ruffy is at his best when allowed to work at his pace but is prone to bouts of inactivity. This despite his utterly impressive offense when he does uncork it. Frankly, his versatility and dynamism make it a shame that he doesn’t let those weapons loose more often.

There is no doubting Ruffy is a remarkably skilled fighter with elite timing and accuracy. The bigger problem lies in how he will transition into the higher ranks if he continues to output such a low volume.

Those questions may be answered when he battles the deeply experienced King (formerly Bobby) Green. A veteran with a long standing reputation of his own, Green came up short against a prospect in Paddy Pimblett last time out.

The loss was a disappointing one and helped assure Green’s status in the division as a gatekeeper. 2-2 in his last four, it’s worth noting he was matched with a much younger man in three of those. Once again he is pitted against a man nearly ten years his junior and a dynamic, explosive striker, to boot.

Historically Green has done well when he can hold up to the opponent’s offense and get into a rhythm with his own boxing. The stylistic match-up doesn’t favor him as the less versatile striker but his speed is as relevant as ever even at 38-years-old.

Unfortunately, where my confidence falls short is in Green’s combinations. He simply doesn’t put together extended offense as often as he used to and trying to one-punch his way to a win will be tough against the accurate and flashy Brazilian.

Close rounds wouldn’t shock me but I doubt Green’s ability to tip them fully his way without a vintage performance tough to envision. Ruffy has a rare chance to recapture his momentum after a flat performance last time; I expect him to put his best foot forward and win a clean and entertaining bout.