Evan Psarras previews Round 4 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
Both teams are coming off a loss but there was plenty of merit in their respective defeats. The Rabbitohs railed 26-0 against the Sharks who looked like they would pour on 50+ points. It wasn’t the case as they scored the last two tries and conceded only a field goal on the stroke of full time after that point. Similarly, the Panthers railed 14-0 and despite losing Cleary to HIA turned it into a dog fight. The Storm would hold on 30-24 and the Panthers will be without the duo of Cleary and Edwards for this one. Laurie will play fullback with Blaize Talagi to again come off the bench after being unable to claim a starting role.
Head To Head
Their two battles last season were nothing short of a football lesson with the Panthers winning 42-12 and 34-12. The Panthers forwards combined for 7 tries in those two games with Garner crossing three times. The Panthers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings dating back to the 2021 Grand Final and have covered the line in 5 of the last 7 meetings as the away team. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes when the Rabbitohs have been listed as the home team but there has been an average of 42.8ppg across their last 6 games at this specific venue (Accor Stadium).
Stats That Matter
The Panthers improved to 6-1 at the line in their last 7 games following a loss in the last 12 months while the Rabbitohs have been successful at the line in only 33% of games under the same circumstances. The Premiers have conceded 90 points through three rounds (30ppg) but it is worth noting that they have faced the three teams that finished alongside them in the top 4 last year (Storm, Sharks and Roosters). The Under is 3-0 in the Rabbitohs first three games of the season with an average of 39.3 total match points in those games.
Prediction
The Over may be 4-0 in the last 4 meetings hosted by the Bunnies but the mantra under Wayne Bennett this season is clear – complete sets, minimise errors and force teams to go around them. They remain in the top 5 for completion rate and second last in offloads meaning they will not be taking any risks. The Sharks had success spreading the ball early inside their own half against the Rabbitohs last week, but I cannot see the Panthers replicating that. The absence of Cleary and Edwards will limit their ability to do so successfully and will in turn see most of this contest played through the middle. With the Panthers allowing 30ppg so far this season, I expect them to focus heavily on defence here.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 13+, 31-40 Total Match Points, Liam Martin Anytime Tryscorer ($43.52)
One week is a long time in the NRL and that certainly applies with these two teams. After putting up 40 points in a win over the Panthers, the Roosters managed just a single try in a loss to the Warriors last week. In contrast, the Titans went from a 16-point loss at the hands of the Bulldogs to a 20-point win over the Knights. Lindsay Collins returns but the Roosters will have to overcome the loss of Connor Watson (concussion). The Titans have issues of their own with Keano Kini out after suffering a neck injury.
Head To Head
It has been almost a decade (16th May 2016) since the Titans beat the Roosters. The tricolours have run riot in this matchup with wins in each of the last 11 meetings. An average winning margin of 16.2 points emphasises their dominance with the Over hitting in the last 5 clashes between them. The Titans have not been able to slow down Tedesco who has scored at least once and 6 times in total in his last four appearances against the Titans. The Roosters have averaged 37.6ppg in their last 5 in this series which indicates the Titans have a serious task ahead of them defensively.
Stats That Matter
The loss against the Warriors should not have been a total surprise as the Roosters have won only 50% of games following a win in the last 12 months. Their record after a loss in that time reads 8-2 with the Over hitting in 9 of those games. Moreover, they return home where they have won 7 of their last 9 as the beating elect with a 67% success rate covering the line in those games. The Titans have lost their last 4 away games dating back to last season with an average of 31.5ppg allowed across those fixtures.
Prediction
The Titans were stellar in defence last week but they cannot be trusted away from home. The Roosters have a phenomenal record following a loss and their dominance in this matchup cannot be ignored. What makes their 11-game win streak against the Titans even more impressive is that only three of those games have been played in Sydney. There is no shortage of weapons in attack for the visitors, but I can see them posting 20+ points and still losing this game.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Roosters WIN, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer, Francis Anytime Tryscorer ($6.63)
A return to Kayo Stadium was supposed to help the Dolphins to their first win of the season but that did not eventuate as they went down 30-18 to the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Broncos were made to work a lot harder than everyone expected in a 26-16 derby win over the Cowboys. Payne Haas was best on ground yet again, but Reece Walsh will need to improve his decision making after making 5 errors and giving away multiple penalties. He has escaped suspension and will be assisted by the return of Kotoni Staggs to the backline.
Head To Head
As the biggest team in Queensland by a long margin, a matchup against the Broncos is always the biggest derby for the other teams from the sunshine state. The Broncos won the first three clashes in this series, but the Dolphins got their revenge in a big way last season with a crushing 40-6 win that ended the Broncos finals hopes. The Dolphins have covered the line in 3 of the previous 4 meetings with the Under holding on in all 4 of those games. Selwyn Cobbo has 5 tries in his last three against the Dolphins while Herbie Farnworth has 4 tries in this series – two for each club.
Stats That Matter
This is the first of two ‘away’ games that the Broncos will play at Suncorp Stadium, and it is an advantage they must capitalise on. They give away a big start for the second time in as many weeks and have covered the line in only 3 of their last 10 with the Over hitting in 70% of those games. The Dolphins have won 4 of their last 6 games at Suncorp Stadium and have never trailed at half time in those games. This happens to be a sweet spot for the Broncos as they have won their last 8 Friday night games against fellow Queensland teams.
Prediction
This is a huge total and the history between these teams tells us that the referee will keep the whistle in the pocket which will keep the penalties to a minimum. The Dolphins are the more likely of he two to earn field advantage through opposing errors and we are yet to see the best of Tabuai-Fidow in 2025 with the Dolphins attack struggling. This could be a similar case as the Broncos game last week where they were forced to defence early before getting their opportunities. Like the Under and the Dolphins with the start accompanied by tries from Cobbo and ‘The Hammer’.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 50.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Half-Time/FullTime Double – Dolphins/Broncos ($7.00)
Same Game Multi: Dolphins +13.5, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer, Cobbo Anytime Tryscorer ($5.89)
The Storm were brilliant in the opening 20 minutes of the Grand Final rematch but the Panthers managed to hold their own despite losing Nathan Cleary in the opening 10 minutes. The Storm would hold on for a 30-24 win, but it came at a price with Jahrome Hughes (broken hand) and Nick Meaney (facial fracture) both due to miss several weeks. The Dragons are fresh off the bye with Tyrell Sloan to keep his spot on the wing and recent acquisition David Klemmer to come off the bench.
Head To Head
The Dragons ended a 3-game losing streak in this matchup with an upset 18-16 win over a full strength Storm at AAMI Park in Round 22 last season. It was a rare defeat as the Storm have won 14 of their last 17 against the Dragons when installed as the betting favourite. That said, they have failed to cover the line in their last 4 as the away team in this series. The Storm are excellent at identifying opposing weaknesses and this matchup is no exception as they have had a player score 2+ tries in the last four clashes.
Stats That Matter
A 5-game losing streak dating back to last season is concerning for the Dragons but a big element of that is failing to win close games. They have lost their last four games by a combined total of only 15 points. They have posted a 9-4 line record in games after a loss in the last year with the Under holding on in 79% of those games. In comparison, the Over has hit in the Storm’s last three away games and is an incredible 9-0 in their last 9 day games. There has been an average of 48.5 total match points in games played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium from 2023 onwards.
Prediction
Defence has been a non-negotiable for Shane Flanagan teams, but the Red V have had serious trouble in the department with 32.2ppg allowed in their last 5. That spells trouble against a Storm outfit that have scored 30+ in 7 of their last 8 with the only exception in that stretch being their Grand Final loss against the Panthers. The Overs looks a very likeable play, but it could be worth waiting until late as some rain could see the total wound in. Touched on the Storm’s ability to exploit weaknesses and after Tupouniua scored a double against in Round 1, expect Katoa to get a heap of ball on the edge. He scored a double last time these two teams went to battle in NSW.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Eliesa Katoa 2+ Tries ($7.25)
Same Game Multi: 1st Half Winner – Storm, Dragons +9.5, Tuipulotu Anytime Tryscorer ($6.59)
We are less than a month into the season, but the writing is already on the wall for the Cowboys following their 0-3 start. They did put up more of a fight against the Broncos, but Todd Payten has stuck with the same 17 despite their struggles in attack. The Raiders suffered their first loss against the Sea Eagles, but it is difficult to get a gauge on that performance as they conceded three tries in a 9-minute stretch when Horsbrough was in the sin bin. Tapine returns in a huge boost with Smithies to miss out due to concussion.
Head To Head
History suggests the Cowboys will turn things around this week as they have won 6 straight against the Raiders. Dating further back, they have won 11 of the last 14 meetings as the home team but the margins haven’t always been significant as they have successfully covered the line in only 2 of the last 7 as a home favourite. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 battles at Qld Country Bank Stadium with an average of only 38.3 total match points across those games. The duo of Holmes and Feldt combined for 8 tries across the two encounters last season but both are no longer with the club. Tom Starling has scored a try in 2 of his last 4 appearances against the Cowboys.
Stats That Matter
The Cowboys have been installed as slight favourites but that may not be the case come kick off. The Raiders have a 40% win rate as an away underdog in the last year and the recent trend is focusing on defence following a loss. There has been an average of 40.7 total match points in their last 6 games on the back of a loss and the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 day games. The Cowboys have failed to form new combinations in attack following the exit of several players and have managed only 13.3ppg so far this season.
Prediction
They may have a good record against the Green Machine, but it is difficult to ignore the Cowboys struggles in attack. They were camped on the Broncos line for the bulk of the first half last week but were unable to convert possession and territory into points. You can put a line through the Raiders game last week as the sin bin completely changed the complexion of that contest. The return of Tapine will give them a significant edge through the middle third and they are far more dangerous out wide. With the Cowboys having conceded a tonne of tries to forwards already this season, I fancy one of Tapine, Young or Starling to get on the scoresheet.
Tips
Best Bet: Raiders +1.5 ($1.83)
Value: Tom Starling Anytime Tryscorer (5.75)
Same Game Multi: Under 47.5 points, Hudson Young Anytime Tryscorer, Raiders Alternate Handicap +6.5 ($9.37)
The Bulldogs 16-8 win over bitter rivals the Eels was anything but pretty, but they are one of only two unbeaten teams (Storm) through three rounds. They remain without the duo of Burton and Kikau meaning the same 17 will have to put on another stellar defensive display. The Sharks posted a comfortable 27-12 win over the Rabbitohs but could have scored 50 if they applied themselves for the full 80 minutes. Hazelton makes a timely return from injury and replaces the injured Hamlin-Uele.
Head To Head
Their most recent battle was an epic with the Bulldogs winning 15-14 in golden point – ending what was a 6-game losing streak against the Sharks. The Sharks have win the last three as the home team in this matchup and 6 of the last 7 as a home favourite. A 2-5 line record in those games would suggest that the Bulldogs have held their own but that has not been the case when they have met in the Shire with the Sharks winning the last three at this ground by a 13+ margin and an average of 24.3 points. The Over has hit only twice in the last eight clashes hosted by the Sharks.
Stats That Matter
The Sharks improved to 10-6 following a win in the last 12 months but have only had two streaks of 3 or more wins during that time. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have a 67% success rate both straight up and at the line in the same scenario (off a win in the last year). The most interesting statistic is the Bulldogs 12-3 Under record in those games. Both teams have conceded fewer than 19ppg dating back to the start of last season and the visitors cannot afford to let the Shark get away to an early lead as they have won 88% of matches since 2022 when leading at half time.
Prediction
We finished Round 3 off in style with the Bulldogs game against the Eels delivering winners all around. The Under was home and hosed midway through the second half and the multi paying $15.68 (Bulldogs 1-12, Penisini Anytime, Wilson Anytime) was the icing on the cake. Sticking with the Unders here for multiple reasons. The Bulldogs showed very little in attack last week against a poor Eels team and possession on its own will not be enough to score points here. The weather forecast isn’t great either and the Bulldogs’ stubbornness in defence will be enough to ensure there are fewer than 40 total match points.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks 1-12, 31-40 Total Match Points, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer ($15.57)
The Cherry-Evans contract saga took centre stage this week, but the focus of the Sea Eagles will turn to football as they seek to build on a 40-12 win. Garrick scored 4 tries in the victory and the home team will receive a further boost with Tom Trbojevic slated to make his return after missing last week with hamstring tightness. The Eels showed significant improvement in a narrow 16-8 loss against the Bulldogs, but it was not enough as coach Jason Ryles has opted to make changes. Sean Russell and Daniel Keir come in with Samrani and Tuiaviti making way.
Head To Head
Home ground advantage has been a factor in this series with the home team winning 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Sea Eagles have claimed victory in 10 of the last 13 as a home favourite which includes winning and covering the line in the last two battles at 4 Pines Park. The Over has hit in 7 straight meetings hosted by the Sea Eagles with 50+ total match points in 5 of the last 6 between them at this ground. The duo of Tom Trbojevic and Reuben Garrick have scored 4 tries each across the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
Stats That Matter
Inconsistency has been the biggest issue for the Sea Eagles, and this is highlighted by them having won only 4 of their last 13 following a win. The Over has hit in 10 of those games (77%) and is also 3-0 in their last 3 home games leading into this one. They have scored 40+ points in each of their two home games at 4 Pines Park so far this season and are perfectly poised to continue that streak. The Eels have posted a very poor 2-7 record at the line as an away underdog in the last year and have been successful at the line in 28% of games following a loss over the same period. Defence has been an issue for the Eels, especially on the road where they have conceded 37.5ppg in their last 4 games.
Prediction
The Eels deserve credit for the fight they put up against the Bulldogs last week, but their attack failed to pose any threat whatsoever. Zac Lomax was best on ground in a losing side but asking him to have 30+ hit-ups for 300m every week is unrealistic. Without the blue and gold army in the grandstand to support them, I can see this one getting completely out of hand if the Sea Eagles manage to kick 10-12 points clear at any point in the first half. The home side will post 40+ points for a third time at home this season with their wingers to feature prominently in the try scoring department.
Tips
Best Bet: Sea Eagles Over 35.5 points ($1.80)
Same Game Multi: Tom Trbojevic Anytime Tryscorer, Jason Saab Anytime Tryscorer, Lehi Hopoate Anytime Tryscorer ($3.03)
After disappointing losses in their respective opening round matches, the Tigers and Warriors have both bounced back with consecutive wins. The Warriors relied on their defence in a gritty 14-6 win over the Roosters last week while for the Tigers it has been on the back of attack with 30+ points scored in their two wins. Samuela Fainu and Skelton both left the field early in the win over the Dolphins, but Benji Marshall has named an unchanged 17. Just one change of note for the visiting team with Rocco Berry into the centres and Pompey shifting to the wing to cover the injured Tuivasa-Sheck.
Head To Head
The Warriors have played finals footy in only 1 of the last 6 seasons but one thing they have been able to do consistently in recent years is dominate the tigers. They have won the last 7 meetings in a stretch where points have been difficult to come by. There has been an average of 36.4 points across the last 5 clashes with neither team able to score more than 30 points in any of those games. The favourite has a 68% win rate across the last 22 encounters in this series with the favourite leading at half time in each of the last 11 meetings.
Stats That Matter
It has been almost 7 years since the Tigers won three in a row (April 2018) but the new-look roster has shown that they could be a force this season and beyond. The Warriors have won only 3 of their last 12 away games which includes a 2-4 record as a road underdog. We don’t usually see the Tigers installed as the betting elect and it is a tag they have not performed well under having gone 0-2 both straight up and at the line in their last 2 as a home favourite. Nevertheless, their defence so far this season suggests they have turned a corner as they have conceded the fewest points in the NRL through three rounds (11.3ppg).
Prediction
Few would find it difficult to believe but the Warriors and Tigers rank 1st and 2nd respectively in completion rate. That statistic is a major reason why the Under is a combined 5-1 for these teams in 2025 and the reason why the Unders is a fantastic bet here. Their matches have combined for an average of 35.7 total match points this season and that trend will continue on the back of their tactics – complete, kick, chase and tackle with an emphasis on line speed. From that point it will come down to who is able to win the yardage battle through the middle and take their chances in the attacking zone. With the likes of Galvin, Bula, Luai and Koroisau in their side, the Tigers have more players who can break the game wide open.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tigers WIN, 31-40 Total Match Points, Turuva Anytime Tryscorer ($9.30)