Evan Psarras previews Round 1 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
After being moments away from Grand Final glory in 2023, the Broncos were supposed to go one better last season. That was not the case with Kevin Walters given the bullet. Michael Macguire has been handed the reins, and they are expected to bounce back in a big way – especially after managing to sign Ben Hunt. It is a case of the opposite for the Roosters who lost several key players in the offseason including Manu, Sua’ali’i, May and Hargreaves. This has been compounded by major injuries to both Sam Walker and Brandon Smith.
Head To Head
The Roosters completed the season double against the Broncos in 2024. It began with a 2010 win in Las Vegas and was followed by a 40-10 thumping in ‘Magic Round’ at Suncorp Stadium. The Tricolours have won 7 of the last 9 meetings which includes a 2-0 record both straight up and at the line in the last two as the home team in this matchup. What the Broncos have done well is keep a lid on James Tedesco who has just the one try in his last 7 appearances against the Broncos. Across the last 9 clashes between them, 8 have produced more than 40 total match points.
Stats That Matter
For the second time in as many years these two teams lock horns in the opening round. Last year it was the Roosters who were victorious as the outsider, but it was only the 2nd time in the last 7 years that they took the two points on offer in Round 1. The Under is 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 opening round matches and they could be playing catchup as the Roosters have scored the first try in 10 of their last 11 when listed as the home team against the Queensland side. The Broncos have won only 50% of games as an away favourite in the last year with the Roosters losing the only game they started as a home underdog in that period.
Prediction
We know better than to go off trial form, but certain aspects of their respective trials are difficult to ignore. The Roosters played close to what is their best current 17 against the Knights and were embarrassed 48-10. Their forwards failed to bend the line, and the spine was completely disjointed. They also lose Leniu through suspension which will make it even more difficult to contain the likes of Haas and Carrigan. In contrast, the duo of Reynolds and Hunt will get the ball to their most dangerous players in the right position and at the right time. The inexperienced centre pairing of Toia and Nawaqanitawase are going to have nightmares. Broncos in a big win!
Tips
Best Bet: Broncos -7.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Broncos 13+, Cobbo Anytime Tryscorer, Walsh Anytime Tryscorer ($5.60)
It was a very busy offseason for the Tigers. Benji Marshall now has a host of weapons at his disposal following the additions of Luai, Terell May, Skelton, Turuva and Jack Bird. They will however be without the duo of Koroisau and Bula which creates a window of opportunity for the visitors. After an excellent performance in the trials, Fletcher Sharpe will line up at no.6 for the Knights with new recruit James Schiller to take the right wing spot. With a backline that also includes Ponga, Best, Gagai and Marzhew, the points should come thick and fast for the Knights this season.
Head To Head
With the Tigers struggling for an extended period, it comes as no surprise to see that they have not fared well in this matchup. The Knights have won the last 6 meetings and have held the Tigers to an average of only 12.7ppg across those matches. The Under has held on in the last three battles hosted by the Tigers with the Knights successfully covering the line on each occasion. Bradman Best has scored in his last two appearances against the Tigers with Marzhew adding two tries across the last three encounters. Fletcher Sharpe scored 4 tries in their most recent clash but was notably on the wing for that match.
Stats That Matter
Notable signings go a long way to making a difference, but the Tigers have a lot of ground to make up. Outside of getting the wooden spoon last season, they ranked last in points scored and conceded more points than any other team (31.25ppg). They were successful at the line in only 33% of matches last season while the Knights posted an impressive 9-4 line record in away games last season. The Knights went 3-0 as an away favourite in 2024 and closed the year by covering the line in 6 of their final 7 games. The Over has hit in the last 9 night matches in this series so there will be no shortage of points.
Prediction
Specifically mentioned that Schiller would win the right wing spot for the Knights and he can get off to a fast start here as Fletcher Sharpe had 4 tries on that side in the most recent clash between these two sides. Bula and Koroisau are huge outs for the Tigers as one provides them with direction/stability and the other is the biggest source of spark. The Knights have rarely had Ponga fit and ready to fire from the opening round and a favourable schedule in the early rounds should see them put together a nice winning streak.
Tips
Best Bet: Knights -2.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Over 42.5 points, Schiller Anytime Tryscorer, Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer ($5.45)
It was a very bad end to the season for both teams and they will be hoping to start fresh in 2025. The Rabbitohs welcome back Wayne Bennett but the mastermind is up against it with the duo of Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Murray out for an extended period. His former side (Dolphins) had a horror end to last year with losses in 6 of their last 8 costing them a spot in the finals. Finefeuiaki and Plath will start on the edges and the return of Gilbert from injury is almost like a new signing.
Head To Head
This is the Dolphins 3rd year in the NRL, but they have faced the Rabbitohs just twice. The Bunnies were 36-14 winners in their first clash, but the Dolphins got their revenge last season 36-28 in a very high scoring contest. The Over is 2-0 in their two battles and the Dolphins will be glad that Alex Johnston is unavailable as he has scored three tries in his two games against the Dolphins.
Stats That Matter
With respect to betting, the Rabbitohs were one of the worst teams to back in 2024. They have won only 2 of their last 11 away games in the last year and of more concern is a 1-8 line record in their last 9 as a road underdog. As bad as the Dolphins were to close out last season, they did win 3 of their last 4 games played in Brisbane and have notably posted a 3-1 record in their first 4 games in each of their first two seasons in the competition.
Prediction
If anyone else but Bennett was in the coaching box for the Rabbitohs, the line for this match would have been more than a converted try. The Bunnies are in huge trouble this season as their roster simply does not stack up against the rest of the competition. Their spine this week reads Cody Walker, Jye Gray, Humphreys and Mamouzelos. There is very little support for Cody who himself just turned 35 and is underprepared after being hindered by injury in the offseason. The Dolphins on the other hand are settled with the quartet of Tabuai-Fidow, Katoa, Nikorima and Marshall-King having played a tonne of games together. The home side have more firepower out wide (Farnworth, Averillo and Isaako) and there is much to like about Plath and Finefeuiaki on the edges. Dolphins by plenty.
Tips
Best Bet: Dolphins -2.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Dolphins 13+, Over 43.5 points, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer
The Bulldogs were the big improvers last season, but it will take a monumental effort for them to take the next step and become genuine title contenders. They will be without Kiraz indefinitely and that will impact their yardage coming out of their own end – especially with Skelton now at the Tigers. There’s plenty of new faces at the Dragons including Gutherson, Cook, Holmes and Ilias which should more than make up for the departure of Ben Hunt.
Head To Head
Hate is a powerful world but appropriate when we talk about these two clubs. The Bulldogs have had the bragging rights having won the last three meetings which includes wins by 13+ in each of their two battles last season. Xerri had a double in the corresponding fixture last season as the Bulldogs were comfortable 28-10 winners in front of a sell-out crowd at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. On the back of that result, the Bulldogs have won the last 5 meetings as an away favourite and dating further back have posted an 8-3 line record in the last 11 as the away team in this series. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 11 encounters hosted by the Dragons.
Stats That Matter
Winning on the road contributed to the Bulldogs success last season. They have won and covered the line in their last 3 away games and won 67% of games as the betting favourite in the last year. The Sharks were the only side to concede fewer points than the Bulldogs last season and that is supported by the data which reveals that the Under held on in 9 of their 12 away games played last season. It may have been months ago, but the Dragons ended their season with a loss. The relevance of this is that the Under has held on in 10 of the Dragons last 13 games following a loss.
Prediction
Rain has been forecast for much of the week and weekend in Sydney – conditions that would suit a gritty Bulldogs side that like to play a gritty brand of footy. There is much to like about the Dragons additions but the halves pairing of Flanagan and Ilias will have to exceed all expectations if the Red V are to fire. The Bulldogs still look short with respect to size in their pack and I don’t see Tupouinuia solving that problem. Like the Unders here and rate the Dragons as a reasonable chance of winning a tight contest.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 39.5 points ($1.98)
Same Game Multi: Dragons 1-12, 31-40 Total Match Points, Holmes Anytime Tryscorer ($26.02)
Last season ended the same way for the Sea Eagles and Cowboys as both teams lost in the second week of the finals. The Sea Eagles have bolstered their squad by adding the likes of Taukeiaho and Tevaga. Most importantly, Tom Trbojevic is fit and ready to go which means they have a chance of winning no matter who they are up against. The Cowboys on the other hand are likely to regress with Holmes, Finefeuiaki, Townsend and the club’s all-time leading try scorer (Kyle Feldt) no longer on the roster.
Head To Head
The Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 meetings including a nail-biting 21-20 victory in golden point in their only clash last season. There is some hope for the visitors as their only two victories during that stretch were at 4 Pines Park. The Sea Eagles did win the five previous clashes at this venue, but it is worth noting that they have covered the line successfully in only 1 of their last 4 attempts as a home favourite in this matchup. The Over has hit in 10 of the last 16 meetings including 71% of the games hosted by the Sea Eagles.
Stats That Matter
For a stretch of 9 years through to 2022, the Sea Eagles had lost their opening round match. They have since won their last two Round 1 matches by a double digit margin (31-6 against the Bulldogs in 2023 and 36-24 over the Rabbitohs last season). We witnessed the best of the Sea Eagles attack in the tail end of last year with he Over hitting in each of their last 5 NRL games. It is necessary to tread carefully with respect to the Cowboys as they have posted outright wins in 4 of their last 6 games as an away underdog. Look for Jason Saab to feature as he scored a hat-trick for the northern beaches club in the most recent clash between these two.
Prediction
The points will come thick and fast at 4 Pines Park from both teams. Despite making a run to the second week of the finals, the Sea Eagles conceded 20+ points in each of their last 5 games. Dating further back they have conceded 22 or more in 3 of their last 4 wins so it is safe to say that both teams will reach the 20-point mark here. Saab will continue his scoring streak in this series and for the visitors I fancy Taulagi to benefit from Dearden’s good work down the left channel.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles 1-12, Saab Anytime Tryscorer, Taulagi Anytime Tryscorer ($11.45)
They may have gone down to the Panthers in the Grand Final last year, but the addition of Stefano Utoikamanu combined with the Premiers losing more players has resulted in the Storm being installed as the favourites to win the title in 2025. In comparison, there have been changes from top to bottom for the Eels. Jason Ryles enters as the head coach with Lomax, Iongi, Blaize Talagi, Jack Williams and Addo-Carr among a long list of recruits. Their supporters will have to find someone new to cheer with fan favourites Clint Gutherson and Maika Sivo moving on.
Head To Head
Few teams have troubled the Storm in recent years, but the Eels fall into that category. At one stage, they won four in a row against the Storm through the 2021/22 seasons – holding the Storm to 14 or fewer points in three of those games. Since then, it has been all Storm with Bellamy’s boys winning the last four by a combined score of 144-58. The Storm have won the last three by a margin of 18 or more points with the duo of Grant and Warbrick scoring at least once in each of those games. The hooker incredibly has 5 tries in his last three appearances against the Eels.
Stats That Matter
The big statistic heading into his match is the Storms’ unbelievable opening round record. The Eels were the last team to beat the Storm in Round 1 but that was back in 2001! The Storm have since won 23 consecutive season openers which is testament to their coaching staff and off season preparations. The Eels were horrendous on the road last season and have claimed points in only 1 of their last 9 as an away underdog. A 2-7 line record highlights just how poor they have been in away games and with the Over hitting in the last three meetings at AAMI Park, the visitors will need to score 20+ points to have any chance.
Prediction
The Eels could be big improvers this season, but they could not have drawn a worse assignment in Round 1. The Storm simply do not lose season openers and with the Eels side having a handful of new players, I expect them to get picked apart. The absence of Moses is a huge loss in this game as any success the Eels have had in the past against the Storm has been centred around the kicking game of Moses. There will be no let-up from the Storm either and as has been the case in the past, Grant will expose lazy defence through the middle third.
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -16.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Over 43.5 points, Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer, Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer ($6.40)