Following a tremendous week at TPC Sawgrass where Rory McIlroy lifted the trophy we head to Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship, the final leg of the Florida Swing.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- GIR
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 3 Scoring
- Par 5 Scoring
The way to win at Innisbrook is to be pinpoint with your irons and red-hot with your putter. Taking advantage of the Par 3s and Par 5s is also critical.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Waialae
- TPC Deere Run
- Muirfield Village
No player profiles better for the Valspar than Sepp Straka. Already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, Ryder Cupper Straka can add a fourth trophy to the cabinet. Straka ranks 5th in GIR, 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Bogey Avoidance and 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. One of his three wins was in the John Deere Classic, a key guide to here, while he has finished Top 16 at the last two Memorials. Uber-keen.
Alex Smalley was fantastic at The Players and had a Top 10 in the bag until the 71st hole when his shot on the famous 17th skirted two railings before falling into the drink. Smalley again profiles nicely. He ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. Finished 2nd at the 2023 John Deere Classic and posted a Top 20 at the Sony Open this year.
The price on Nicolai Hojgaard is utterly ridiculous. His form is very good with seven Top 20 finishes in his last 10 starts including finishing 8th at the Mexico Open. The Danish star leads the Tour in GIR while he ranks 6th in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Bogey Avoidance and 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach. A fabulous Top 10 bet this week.
Veteran Sam Ryder is working his way back into form with four Top 25 finishes in his last nine starts with seven straight made cuts. He was very good at The Players where he finished T-14. While his putting was good as per normal, he had positive true strokes gained from the tee for the first time in seven tournaments. Ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 12th in Bogey Avoidance. Finished Top 33 here the last two years.
Brice Garnett is a monster price this week but is not without a chance. He leads the Tour in Bogey Avoidance while he ranks 9th in GIR and 12th in Par 3 Scoring. Form is a little bit off but did finish T-11 three starts back at the Cognizant Classic. Nice Top 20/40 bet.
Corey Conners has been playing very good golf of late with Top 6 finishes at the API and The Players while he has finished Top 21 here at his two visits.
Four Germans tee it up this week and very happy to see north of $4 for Jeremy Paul. He ranks 11th in Bogey Avoidance and 14th in Par 5 Scoring.