UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 23 February

Though he may be the underdog this weekend, all eyes will be on Henry Cejudo as he embarks on what he is calling his final championship run. Cejudo is a lifelong combat sports veteran, notably winning a gold medal in wrestling at the 2008 Olympics.

His title reign and defenses against the likes of T.J. Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz have aged well and even Cejudo himself has managed a surprising amount of longevity as a bantamweight. Now 38-years-old and riding a two fight losing streak, Cejudo’s running out of chances to contend at the elite level.

The most recent of those – a one-sided defeat to Merab Dvalishvili last year – did little to suggest Cejudo will be a champion again. Despite his clear decline as an athlete, he is still a well-rounded and hearty competitor.

Naturally, he is strongest in tie-ups and from top position but it’s worth noting Cejudo has developed very competent striking offense over the years. He is no defensive wizard but his durability has been an asset.

Athletically, Cejudo has been sliding and the explosive characteristics that helped cement his status as a champion have waned significantly. Even his once-mighty gas tank has fallen into question, with his pacing and late-fight performances growing inconsistent.

Stylistically, Cejudo would stand to have serious advantages if he were still in his prime. It is a reflection of the public’s faith in Cejudo that Yadong Song is such a sizable betting favorite this weekend.

Originally from China but fighting out of Team Alpha Male in California for some time now, Song came up short in his last outing but is 10-3 overall in a surprisingly lengthy UFC stint. Though only 27-years-old, Song has been in the organization since 2017 and faced a swath of relatively impressive opposition.

Historically, he has been coming up short when stepping up in competition but there is not an apt comparison between a fresh Cory Sandhagen or Petr Yan and what Song will face this weekend. Notably, Song has been shoring up weaknesses in his defensive grappling and will once again need to demonstrate it here.

Song is a powerful and sharp striker with some excellent boxing but this fight will be determined by the success of his takedown defense. Tasked with a five-round affair, Song has the benefit of working Cejudo for a longer period of time and coming back to surge if he struggles early.

If this fight occurred the last time Henry Cejudo has a win – 2020 – the odds would be very different. But fights are about the moment in which they take place as much as the match-up itself, and Cejudo’s best moments have been left in the past.

Song has developed and improved in a deliberate way to handle fighters like this. The time seems right for Song to stave off the takedowns of Cejudo, pull away down the stretch, and punctuate a huge win with a clean finish.

A hefty betting favorite this weekend, the man most commonly known as “Fluffy” has garnered great respect after his recent appearances. Riding a six-fight win streak that was kicked off by submitting Rodolfo Vieira, the most recent outing of Anthony Hernandez saw him impose a similarly menacing game plan on Michel Pereira.

Hernandez has notably finished five of his last six and it’s difficult to put into accurate words how impressive his ascent has been. A fighter staying true to himself and yielding the best results, Hernandez has found a home for pushing a pace, dragging his foes into deep waters, and drowning them unabashedly.

Hernandez is durable in his own right but what pulls his style and success together is his gas tank and superb grappling skills. Hernandez is an outstanding grappler with serious finishing ability on the mat but perhaps what makes him most dangerous is his understanding of how to break fighters down before finishing.

Everything about Hernandez’s game is a process. His success compounds as fights wear on, and he has found a niche for bullying his foes with a game not entirely unlike current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Much like the Georgian spark plug, Hernandez has the gas tank and durability to continue attempting his offense and forcing his opponents to keep up or die.

Standing across from “Fluffy” will be a fellow grappler with similarly plucky characteristics. Brendan Allen may have come up short in his last fight against Nassourdine Imavov, but not only has that loss aged well but this weekend represents a starkly different match-up.

Allen is 12-3 overall since joining the UFC in 2019 and has evolved significantly in that time. Allen is at his best when grappling but has picked up his striking to a very respectable point. Reasonably high volume is mixed with consistent takedown attempts and sharp knees in tie-ups.

Despite doing his best work on the mat, Allen isn’t helpless elsewhere. Ultimately, this fight likely comes down to Allen’s ability to stave off Hernandez for three rounds.

The shorter duration actually benefits Allen as he has less chance of being completely unraveled by 25 minutes spent with Hernandez. However, he will still be facing an onslaught of offense and even as a grappling specialist in his own right, he has never shown a particular affinity for working from bottom position.

As has been the case with Hernandez lately, this looks like an opponent that will oblige the type of fight he enjoys. Stronger strikers with greater mobility have faltered and fallen prey to Hernandez; I am doubtful Allen has the skills necessary to keep out of tie-ups. Look for Hernandez to do what he does best and secure another big win on his high velocity win streak.

Installed as the betting favorite, respect is clearly high on the name of Jean Matsumoto as he steps in on late notice to handle a longtime veteran. Matsumoto was originally scheduled to fight in early March but was pulled up to this date to replace the now-retired Dominick Cruz.

This bout is contested at 140lbs as opposed to the usual bantamweight stomping grounds of these two. For Matsumoto, this is an opportunity to leapfrog his timeline and tackle a top 10 opponent. But unquestionably this is also the stiffest test of his career and a sizable step up in competition.

Thus far, Matsumoto has done well in navigating around the wrestling-focused game plans of Dan Argueta and Brad Katona. Both found success with takedowns (Argueta landed nine while Katona succeeded on three), but ultimately Silva found a way to win.

A well-rounded competitor with serious upside at the age of 25, Matsumoto will have to lean on his striking to get the job done this weekend. That may be something of a relief for him, as kickboxing is where Matsumoto prefers to get the brunt of his work done.

Matsumoto lacks extraordinary punching power but makes up for it with accurate offense and versatility. He often has an eye towards the finish but has shown the composure necessary to pace himself; he isn’t quick to force something that isn’t there yet.

There is still an air of youth and vulnerability to Matsumoto but there is no question he has a favorable match-up ahead of him at UFC Fight Night 252. This is a big step up for him, and a rather quick one, but a well-timed and manageable pairing.

Now 37-years-old, Rob Font has gone 2-2 in his last four and struggled to maintain consistency inside the cage. Font is outside of his prime but still a level ahead of young fighters lacking game plans, as he showed in an upset win over Kyler Phillips.

Fundamentally sound and owning one of the best jabs in the division, Font is at his best when fending off takedowns and picking opponents apart with his boxing. A longtime member of the “New England Cartel”, Font lives up to the team’s reputation as a sharp striker with troves of experience.

Recent outings have shown some cracks in the armor of Font, but he continues to be an offensively menacing fighter. How Font handles the power of Matsumoto will play a serious role in this bout, as Font still has the ability to outwork Matsumoto if he isn’t concerned about being floored.

This is a big ask for Matsumoto but one he looks able to handle. Margins may be thin in this one but Font has a tendency to get hurt and Matsumoto is fast and precise enough to land. A finish of Font has proven virtually impossible but as the years have worn on, Font has appeared more vulnerable.

If Font pushes the pace too much he is apt to walk into something heavy, but allowing Matsumoto to fight at his own directive in a short-notice bout could prove catastrophic as well. I expect Matsumoto to capitalize on a tense and somewhat slow-paced fight to win minutes and edge out a victory. But more than anything, I anticipate this bout tells us a lot about the futures of both men.

3-0 in the UFC with as many finishes, hype has been amassing as a remarkable pace for Jean Silva. A notable member of the “Fighting Nerds”, Silva has been happily displaying the intelligence and versatile skills that are putting the team on the map.

On an individual level, Silva is still exceeding expectations. A drubbing of Westin Wilson was nothing to write home about but closing out Charles Jourdain and Drew Dober are outstanding victories. Silva has done everything he can to attract the eyes of fans and for good reason, as he looks to be a future contender.

The versatile finisher is particularly brutal on the feet, with accurate and quick strikes flying out from a variety of angles. As over-used a term as it may be, Silva is both dynamic and composed inside the cage. His pure output isn’t extraordinarily high but when he does throw, it tends to be thudding and precise.

This weekend represents something of a pit stop for Silva. Heavily favored and by far the more recognizable name in the match-up, Silva has the benefit of receiving a striker at UFC Fight Night 252.

Out of action since last July, Melsik Baghdasaryan picked up a unanimous decision over Tucker Lutz, though he was grounded thrice in the process.

If he has his preference, Baghdasaryan keeps things on the feet where he can unload heavy strikes and build momentum. Melsik is not a superstar on the feet but he is fundamentally passable and has garnered much-needed experience in his UFC run.

That said, the deck is still surely stacked against Baghdasaryan here. He lacks threatening tools on the mat and is unlikely to find success wrestling even if he attempted it. A make or break kickboxing bout tends to strongly favor Jean Silva and I doubt this weekend will be any different.

In what could be considered something of a step down in competition for Silva, I expect him to look his sharpest. I expect a point proven and highlight reel produced as Silva picks apart and finishes Baghdasaryan before the final bell.

Opening the main card of UFC Fight Night 252, Alonzo Menifield will be stepping into the Octagon for the sixth time in 24 months. Continuing to stay active despite a two-fight losing streak, Menifield isn’t one to dwell on poor results for too long.

2-2-1 in his last five overall, Menifield has been finished in his last two but is likely to maintain the same offense-minded style that has garnered him success. Physically imposing with the power to match, Menifield is a forceful fighter in multiple facets but has struggled with consistency.

When he lets his hands go, he’s capable of rocking opponents with relative ease. Putting enough together to finish them with strikes is another story, and something Menifield hasn’t managed in nearly three years.

After facing opponents with 9-1 and 13-0 records in his last two bouts, this weekend represents a sizable step down in competition for Menifield. It also serves as a litmus test for him, as he attempts to kick start momentum and prove he is a level above regional debutants.

On that note, Julius Walker has only been fighting for two years and owns a mere 6-0 record, but quickly garnered attention for finishing all of those bouts. Walker is taking this fight on short notice but stays ready as a young fighter and was already in preparation to fight in a couple weeks.

Stylistically, you get what you probably expect from Walker. Full of energy and confidence, Walker is quick to stand and let his heavier strikes win the night. He clearly lacks finesse and experience but has shown a respectable composure inside the cage.

By his own admission, Walker expected to be a bigger underdog this weekend. A UFC debut is one thing, but Walker is at a particularly early stage of his career as a fighter. Athletically, he has spent far more time playing basketball – which he did in college – than fighting.

Walker looks like the kind of fighter who will stay on the roster even if he comes up short this weekend. Plucky, likable, and with power that passes the eye test, Walker is only 25-years-old and could develop into something fun and intriguing.

But a main card appearance against an offensive juggernaut like Alonzo Menifield seems too much, too soon for the young Walker. A tentative feeling-out process may precede a finish, but ultimately I expect Menifield to steel his confidence, let his hands go, and show the young fighter what the big lights are like.