UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 16 February

Riding a three-fight win streak that includes two finishes, Gregory Rodrigues is flying high as he stomps through the middleweight division. An offensive juggernaut in every sense of the word, Rodrigues is an imposing figure inside the cage.

A Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rodrigues also happens to be built like a superhero with the intensity to match. Unafraid of a war, Rodrigues has heavy hands and sharper Muay Thai than he gets credit for.

There is much to be desired when it comes to defending strikes but what Rodrigues lacks in defensive savvy he makes up for with durability, power, and a well-versed skill set. The man known as “Robocop” is insanely difficult to stop the encroachment of and even his conditioning has seen marked improvement in recent years.

Rodrigues’ tendency to absorb some punishment with nary a reaction lands him in some hot water at times but he has only been stopped once since 2020. Closing the show is an entirely different thing from buzzing him temporarily.

The Brazilian has become a fan favorite for good reason and he finds an intriguing match-up this weekend. Fresh off a win over Christian Leroy Duncan, Rodrigues will be stepping up to battle yet another technically sharp striker this weekend.

On the other end of the cage but on the same end of the violence spectrum, Jared Cannonier is desperate to get back in the win column after going 0-2 across 2024. The first of the year’s setbacks had some controversy to it but Cannonier lacked the same argument in a one-sided loss to Caio Borralho.

This weekend serves as something of a litmus test for the American Cannonier, as he is still a remarkably skilled fighter but isn’t pulling the trigger or taking punches the same way he used to. At 40-years-old and with a decade of competition in the UFC alone, Cannonier has began to show clear signs of slowing down as a fighter.

Cannonier has a lot to offer offensively but his output has dropped in recent outings and I am most concerned about how he’s been handling those shots. Going four rounds with Nassourdine Imavov has aged fairly well but there’s an argument to be made Cannonier should have been halted against Borralho.

UFC Fight Night 251 represents yet another heavy-handed, offense-minded fighter who is willing to push a pace in multiple areas. While I do expect Rodrigues to eventually break down and finish Cannonier on the feet, I wouldn’t be surprised if a bit of wrestling and control time contributed to denting Cannonier’s gas tank.

Look for a well-rounded performance from Rodrigues that helps seal the book on the long and illustrious career of Jared Cannonier.

Second time’s the charm for Youssef Zalal as he has been utterly dominant in his current UFC run. A prior stint in the organization saw him go 3-3-1 across a two year period with each of those fights going the distance.

Since rejoining the organization last year, Zalal has rattled off three straight wins. He has also corrected his intensity, finding a submission in each victory. The wins serve as a proof of concept, with Zalal showing clear improvements in every faucet since embarking on his current run.

The 28-year-old does his best work on the mat but has sharpened his striking to a competent level. Rangy kicks and a lengthy overall game buy him time and space on the feet while he looks for a takedown opportunity. He is not the most accurate wrestler in the division but times his attempts increasingly well; across his last three fights, he has found success on about 66% his takedown attempts.

What is likely to be stark stylistic contrast has not negatively impacted Zalal’s perceived chances of victory, as he is one of the biggest betting favorites on the night. Facing him will be longtime veteran and boxing specialist Calvin Kattar.

Hailing from the same team that produced Rob Font, it is clear striking has always been a priority for Kattar. Savvy, experienced, and composed on the feet, Kattar does his best work when allowed to settle into a rhythm and start boxing.

He lacks substantial power but is technically sharp and owns one of the best jabs in the division. Kattar’s recent results have seen him fall on hard times and he enters this weekend on a three-fight skid.

The losses came to elite opposition not to be ashamed of but there’s no denying Kattar being without a win since 2022. Furthermore, he has only a single victory since 2020. At this point in his career, it’s worth considering what Kattar has left to offer the sport.

Injuries and poor stylistic match-ups have left him ragged and desperate for a win. Unfortunately, finding that victory against a surging upstart nearly ten years his junior is a tall task.

There is a route to a win for Kattar if he can keep this on the feet and apply enough volume to win minutes and overcome the range disadvantage. Staying on his feet for three rounds is another story entirely, particularly after being grounded eight times by Aljamain Sterling in his last appearance.

Historically, closing the show on Kattar has proven to be a very difficult task as he is durable and well-versed in survival. Potentially slow-paced minutes on the feet will help extend his lifespan in this bout but grappling exchanges could prove catastrophic.

Zalal is both more impressive and more aggressive on the mat than he is typically pegged to be. If/when he finds successful takedowns, I expect him to seriously threaten the defensive shell of Kattar on the mat.

At 6-5 in the UFC and entering his seventh year in the organization, it’s hard to believe Edmen Shahbazyan is still only 27-years-old. Once upon a time he was a hot prospect who burst onto the scene with finishes over durable veterans like Jack Marshman and Brad Tavares. The years since have been less kind.

2-5 dating back to 2020, Shahbazyan just hasn’t been able to put it together despite flashes of great potential. Historically he has struggled with his gas tank but understanding how he unravels requires us to zoom out a bit.

Shahbazyan is a fighter who tends to look good until he doesn’t. That may sound true for many, but he has a particularly nasty habit of dominating the early portions of his fights only to wilt and collapse when his conditioning fails him.

This was apparent in early losses and as a result he made something of an over-correction to his pacing. The alterations resulted in a net gain but his old issues did rear up again when he tried unsuccessfully to take out Gerald Meerschaert, only to find himself submitted later in the round.

Fortunately, this weekend represents a clear step down in competition for Shahbazyan. Stylistically, wrestling-based Dylan Budka technically has the characteristics to trouble Shahbazyan and make this interesting. While strong in theory, Budka has been falling flat in execution since being signed from Dana White’s Contender Series.

His organizational debut saw him spending a few minutes pushing against a brick wall in Cesar Almeida until the wall finally pushed back. The wrestler ended the year on a low note, getting beaten at his own game by Andre Petroski.

The 25-year-old has simply failed to impress and even his contract-winning performance was brought about by grinding, low-paced wrestling. Budka has little finishing upside and hasn’t shown the kind of urgency to break down solid talent.

Though I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being a slower-paced fight than initially expected, Shahbazyan will have opportunities to finish this fight. Closing the show successfully has always been a question mark for him but there is little doubt he will control the contest and could very reasonably navigate to a finish.

Younger brother Gabriel is on the undercard of this event but Ismael gets to close the night out for the brothers in an intriguing lightweight showdown. Initially a smaller betting favorite, Ismael has received some confidence from bettors and his impressive performance last time out is surely no small part.

Bonfim only competed once last year but made it a good one when he dominated Vinc Pichel over three clean wins. The fight was a return to form for Bonfim and helped showcase what got fans so excited to begin with.

A versatile and cerebral fighter, Bonfim is exceptionally skilled on the feet and does his best work when allowed to fight at his pace. Relentless pressure saw him make mistakes and fold to Benoit Saint-Denis in 2023 but he is unlikely to get such a demanding pace this weekend.

On the mat, Bonfim is more than competent and he does average around one completed takedown per fight, but standing is his preferred domain. Fortunately, his takedown defense has largely held up and generally he gets to dictate where fights take place.

That characteristic is one Nazim Sadykhov could use more of, as he owns very solid grappling skills but inconsistency getting it there. The 30-year-old is something of an oddity overall, as the majority of his wins have come by KO/TKO but truthfully he displays the most impressive skills when he’s on the mat.

Sadykhov is defensive liable and doesn’t push a strong pace on the feet but he seems to enjoy striking and getting into frenzied exchanges with opponents. Sadykhov is arguably less than the sum of his parts, as he does own legitimate power, a fairly versatile offense, and a completely underrated ground game.

Despite these positives, Sadykhov seems content to go with the flow of the fight as opposed to trying to impose his will. This may come back to haunt him against Ismael Bonfim, as a fighter who does not push a solid pace is unlikely to beat him.

Bonfim is at his best when he’s allowed to find his timing, rhythm, and distance without consistent harassment. Sadykhov is a dangerous fighter but he’s an inconsistent one. His tendency to fight in bursts is unlikely to force Bonfim to wilt.

It may not be a thrilling affair if Bonfim has his preferred pace, but I expect him to control the tempo from the opening bell and notch a solid win to start the year.

3-1 in his last four, trends have been remarkably optimistic for Rodolfo Vieira as he seemingly hits his prime as a competitor. Vieira particularly impressed last time out when he submitted Armen Petrosyan in a single round.

Now 35-years-old, it may be twelve months since Vieira was in a cage but he competed in a grappling competition to close last year out. Predictably, he found success and another submission in that event against UFC alum Derek Brunson.

A grappling specialist who stays true to his roots, Vieira has finally pulled his game together and found a cohesion to his skill set. While Vieira is no knockout artist, he has become a competent striker who can also lean on a durable chin to back up errors.

Most importantly, his work on the feet melds better than ever with his attempts to force grappling. With an increasingly versatile arsenal of takedowns, Vieira has managed to ground all but one of his opponents across seven bouts in the Octagon.

Though Vieira stands to have another advantage on the mat if he can get Andre Petroski there, it may not be as easy as he expects. With his own background in wrestling, Petroski has managed 80% takedown defense across nine fights in the UFC.

Petroski has also shown clear developments in his time and rides a two-fight win streak into this bout, as well. Decision wins over Josh Fremd and Dylan Budka helped drive home Petroski’s improvements, as he went back to his roots and leaned on his wrestling to secure rounds.

Going on his fourth year in the UFC, it is obvious Petroski is still improving but he stands to struggle in what is a huge step up in competition this weekend. Historically, Petroski has struggled to fend off better strikers that can exploit his defensive flaws and stay upright.

Vieira may not have a decided edge on the feet, but he owns the benefit of not fearing grappling exchanges. Any tie-ups should favor Vieira and allow him a path straight to his preferred domain. If these two stay on the feet, Vieira can attack with confident knowing he can take Petroski’s shot.

Everything seems to be falling in place for the Brazilian veteran, and he is rightfully favored at UFC Fight Night 251. Look for the submission specialist to spend a few minutes on the feet before finally dragging this to the floor and closing the show.