A rematch a year in the making, two of the most prolific middleweights in the sport battle for the belt and cap a loaded UFC 312 card live from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. In the co-main event, it’s China’s Weili Zhang defending her title against American standout Tatiana Suarez.
Everything about Dricus Du Plessis suggests he should have never been in this position to begin with. A champion who successfully defended once already, his run up to the title was unlikely enough but his continued victories have gobsmacked much of the MMA world.
Unraveling how Du Plessis manages to fall upward would take more time than we have here, but there’s no denying his determination to win and the results his effort elicits. Having finished four of his last five, Du Plessis is not only growing in confidence but in efficacy.
The South African garnered a reputation early in his career for utterly sloppy techniques applied with gusto. In the years since, the flames of his aggression have only burned brighter while, fortunately, his technique has picked up a bit.
By no means is Du Plessis a technical wizard but there is more method to his madness than may appear on the surface. A particularly adept grappler, Du Plessis ultimately does his best work when he can establish top position.
Wrestling is not the end-all-be-all for Du Plessis but he is a menace if he can consolidate position. Control has been a point of weakness for him but his gas tank is shockingly consistent and he outputs enough meaningful offense to force respect everywhere.
On the feet, Du Plessis brings heavy strikes and a wide variety of angles to the table. Outputting the brunt of his offense from behind a high guard, he has a set of dangerous skills from both stances and often changes between them throughout a fight. There’s a lot to dislike about the aesthetic of how Du Plessis fights but the stats don’t lie – he has been putting real pressure on elite opponents, including the man he faces again this weekend.
A prolific middleweight in his own right, Sean Strickland is one of the loudest mouths at the packed Xtreme Couture, but also one of its best fighters. A longtime veteran with a deceptive amount of experience, Strickland has undergone serious change both as a fighter and person since making his UFC debut in 2014.
Over a decade later, Strickland has refined himself into a consistent striker with voluminous offense. In particular, a loss to Alex Pereira in 2022 was a clear catalyst for Strickland. Not only did he start taking trips to train with Pereira, the heavy-handed legend will be in his corner for UFC 312.
The American has plenty to offer Du Plessis on the feet in this contest – particularly as he should own another advantage in pure statistical output – but wrestling may be the tipping point of this bout. Strickland is not an easy man to hold down but he did hit the mat six times in his first meeting with Du Plessis.
The lack of control mitigated their impact, but Du Plessis’ continued success wrestling at a championship level cannot be ignored. The grappling advantage of Du Plessis is sizable, even taking into consideration Strickland’s underappreciated skills on the mat. If Strickland cannot keep this fight exclusively on the feet, he will fall behind in minutes and get dragged into Du Plessis’ domain.
Narrow margins are likely to separate this one (again) but Du Plessis seems to be figuring things out. He crashed into the upper echelon with raw physicality and a broad but unrefined skill set. Now, he is beginning to refine his game, staying safer in between those offensive surges fans are accustomed to.
Finishing upside has always been limited for Strickland no matter what he says, and getting him to fight with the intent to hurt is a challenge anywhere outside of a sparring session. Look for Du Plessis to will himself to another win and title defense, moving on from the Adesanyas and Stricklands for good.
On a four-fight win streak with two defenses of her title, Weili Zhang is eight months removed from a thrilling win over Xiaonan Yan. Though not a terribly competitive bout, Zhang controlled the majority and nearly finished Yan on multiple occasions over the five round course.
Since a breakout KO of the Year against fellow legend Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2022, Zhang has been wholly successful and largely dominant. Most impressive has been her varied methods to find victory, cementing her status as one of the most well-rounded champions on the roster.
A diverse martial artist, Zhang is adept everywhere but generally does her best work when pushing the action. A physically powerful woman, Zhang is difficult to beat in the clinch and generally only shows real vulnerability when she fatigues.
Zhang is also sharp at range and at this point conducts herself as the experienced kickboxer she is. Again, fatigue allows her defense to lapse and her offense to be a bit more telegraphed but when she is pacing well, Zhang can output strong, technical work that wins minutes.
Zhang has become something of an offensive powerhouse but there is some cause for concern when it comes to her defensive wrestling. She is not easily held to the mat but Zhang has only maintained roughly 50% takedown defense through her UFC tenure.
That spotty defense may come back to haunt her when facing the most accomplished wrestler in the division.
At 34-years-old and a mere 10-0, there’s reason to wonder what has everyone so excited about Tatiana Suarez. An Olympic hopeful who had her dreams derailed by injury and the removal of her thyroid, Suarez has quietly but consistently climbed the professional ranks.
A standout wrestler with international success in the sport, Suarez has transitioned well to MMA and had hardcore fans clamoring for her eventual rise. Injuries and layoffs have continued to mar her ascent though, leading to another layoff of 554 days by the time she lands in the Octagon this weekend.
Of the belief that rust will be no issue, Suarez has genuine upside to become strawweight champion at UFC 312. Her wrestling ability is legitimate and furthermore her grappling skills have looked extraordinary throughout her UFC career.
Suarez won’t have the edge on the feet but should find avenues to takedown attempts. Catching Zhang’s kicks is a valid path but Suarez has the ability to shoot in and get close to Zhang’s hips. Prone to countering attempts with throws, Zhang isn’t likely to keep her hips away and demand a pensive striking match.
These two are some of the best in the division and it’s a joy to see them square off for the title as both deserve nothing less. The betting lines have been much talked about in the lead-up, as Zhang opened a clear favorite and was consistently bet down to a pick’em line.
Though I’m not one to typically follow the flow of betting traffic, Suarez has all the tools necessary to make this miserable for Zhang on the mat. Look for hectic scrambles and high-level grappling to set the table for an emphatic Suarez submission win.
A minor betting favorite in his UFC debut, Tallison Teixeira has never escaped the first round in his MMA career. A finisher to his core, Teixeira is a perfect 7-0 as a professional with six coming by KO/TKO.
Though he hasn’t spent much time in the cage, Teixeira has already shown some very positive characteristics. Not only does he clearly pack a punch in both hands, but he is a towering presence at 6’7” (201cm).
The lengthy Brazilian has largely only showcased his striking as a professional but his roots in the sport are a bit more diverse. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in addition to being an experienced Muay Thai practitioner, Teixeira may own some deceptively versatile skills he hasn’t had a chance to uncork yet.
That opportunity may present itself against the limited but powerful Justin Tafa. A notably heavy-handed resident of the heavyweight division, Tafa is looking to shake off a dull loss to Karl Williams nearly a year ago.
Born in New Zealand but fighting out of Australia, Tafa is a fan favorite for his willingness to step forward and launch bombs. Both he and his brother Junior lack particular finesse, but they share in being able to put people’s lights out with little effort.
Unfortunately, Tafa’s power is generally where his excellence ends. There is something to be said about his relative durability but Tafa is a meek grappler with mediocre takedown defense. Giving up seven to his last foe only drove home the point.
Tafa is being given the benefit of the doubt because this bout stands to be a striking contest. If Tafa cannot do well scrapping in his preferred domain for the majority of a bout, he has little upside as a heavyweight in the UFC.
That said, Teixeira has some signs of being an interesting prospect. Not only will he carry a clear size advantage into the cage, he has shown composure under pressure in the past and come out with finishes. That game plan stands to hold up again, as he should find openings to counter an incoming but reckless Tafa.
Though only 1-0 in the UFC, Rodolfo Bellato has won four straight and finished three. It takes only a mere glance at Bellato’s record to realize he’s a dedicated finisher but what isn’t reflected is his heart inside the cage.
Bellato finished his last bout with ground and pound from mount but was mere moments from being stopped earlier in the round. Bellato was floored and smeared across the mat but survived and pushed the pace as soon as he was able.
That kind of willpower is tough to teach and even tougher to maintain in the face of real adversity. Couple it with Bellato’s genuinely thudding force in both hands and you’re left with a durable, persistent, offense-minded juggernaut.
Bellato is defensively liable but often coming forward and winging bombs. He is also willing to shoot for takedowns but generally does so only when he needs to; he certainly prefers to let his hands go on the feet.
Standing across from the powerful Bellato will be an underrated veteran looking to emerge out of his shell. At only 28-years-old and without a win since 2020, it’s easy to miss why Australian fans supported Crute with such vigor.
He debuted in the UFC in 2018 as a face-faced 22-year-old taking on Paul Craig. Even then, it would be impressive to see Crute submit Craig in the third round. In the years since, injuries and inconsistency have marred Crute to a disastrous degree.
His most recent appearance was a loss to Alonzo Menifield that ended his 2023. The entirety of the next year was taken off, and Crute now returns after what will be a 580 day layoff. Despite the time away, Crute is confident and happy to have finally had the chance to heal his body and mind.
This is a make or break fight for Crute, but not an unwinnable one. A surprisingly diverse fighter with a genuinely solid skill set, Crute will need to apply a game plan and stick to it from the opening bell, lest he fall into an ill-fated war with Bellato.
The Australian is not hopeless on the feet as the cleaner striker but may find his best success getting his wrestling going. Crute is an experienced grappler with deceptively slick skills on the mat; if he finds himself in top position regularly, he may be able to wear Bellato out and clear a safer path to victory.
Expect Bellato to do what he does and come forward aggressively. How Crute responds from the jump will tell the tale of this fight, as he has no time to waste against a hard-charging prospect.
The clear betting favorite, Jake Matthews is 2-1 in his last three and looking to continue his momentum in a steady climb. All things considered, Matthews has developed quite well since since debuting in the UFC as a teenager over a decade ago.
The native Australian is now 30-years-old and conducts himself as the veteran he is. A patient fighter with a well-rounded skill set, Matthews has come up as a mixed martial artist and his diverse capabilities reflect that nicely.
Matthews is not a dogged finisher but has found consistency in his offense, picking up the majority of his winning minutes with effective, fundamental striking. He isn’t a terribly flashy fighter but it is increasingly looking like it requires a specialist to defeat Matthews; he certainly blunders into losses far less often than he did in his early 20s.
The other half of UFC 312’s main card opener is finish-minded Argentinean Francisco Prado, who moves to welterweight for this contest. Prado is 1-2 in the UFC so far with losses to Jamie Mullarkey and Daniel Zellhuber sandwiching a win over Ottman Azaitar.
That lone win, a first round stoppage, reflects the best of Prado but fans have seen little of that version. He was outworked and grounded multiple times by Mullarkey, then beaten to the punch on the feet by Zellhuber.
Prado is offensively a confident and hard-charging fighter but he lacks refinement at only 22-years-old. He swings hard and that is accurately reflected on his record, but his grappling skills are overstated on paper. He has managed to tap regional opposition, but his grappling simply hasn’t translated to higher tier opponents.
Prado is an intriguing young fighter but one that might be better suited to a UFC run in future years. Prado may find some explosive moments of success but I expect him to be overwhelmed by the consistency of Matthews.
Wrestling is a valid path to victory for the Australian but even on the feet, he should have the technical edge to win minutes and the stability to avoid a kill shot. A rough match for Prado no matter how you slice it, look for Matthews to pull away down the stretch and notch an undramatic win.
Du Plessis v Strickland: Du Plessis Head To Head
Zhang v Suarez: Suarez Wins By Submission
Teixeira v Tafa: Teixeira Wins By KO/TKO or Submission
Bellato v Crute: Crute Head To Head
Matthews v Prado: Matthews Wins By Decision
Santos v Jenkins: Jenkins Head To Head
Borshchev v Nolan: Borshchev Wins By KO/TKO
Wang v Brasil: Wang Wins By Decision
Topuria v Thicknesse: Thicknesse Head To Head
Steele v Rongzhu: Steele Wins By Decision
Jousset v Micallef: Jousset Wins By Decision
Salkilld v Jubli: Salkilld Wins By Decision
Park v Tumendemberel: Park Wins By Decision