UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 12 January

Though a mere 2-2 in her last four outings, the results have not always gone the way of Amanda Ribas but there’s no denying her consistency inside the cage. Since making her UFC debut in 2019, Ribas has amassed a 7-4 record and displayed a diverse and adaptable skill set.

A prior win over Mackenzie Dern in that same debut year helped prove the point, though things might match up a bit differently this time around. Ribas is still outputting solid work as a 31-year-old and her black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo bolster her grappling to a serious degree.

Ribas has historically been largely underrated but brings tenacity and a well-rounded game to the table. She lacks an abundance of finishing ability but can compete everywhere and pushes enough of a pace to weed out the poorly conditioned.

Interestingly, this fight serves as a return to strawweight for Ribas – only her second bout in the division since 2021. Though she runs into struggles at flyweight, she has been consistently successful at 115lbs and owns a physical advantage over many of her peers.

Mackenzie Dern is one such fighter, seeking revenge this weekend as the underdog in the UFC Fight Night 249 headliner. A wildly accomplished grappler with a devoted fan following, Dern has been a popular but tumultuous fighter since making her organizational debut in 2018.

Her first fight in the UFC was a split decision. Her first loss to Amanda Ribas. In the years since, Dern has been forced to evolve as the blueprints to her demise propagated. She is still a devastatingly effective and dangerous grappler but more importantly, her ability to get fights to the ground has improved dramatically.

Dern has also turned a corner in her offensive striking, though she lacks the signs of a seasoned striker. Sloppy footwork and absent defense land her in hot water, especially if she fails on early takedown attempts and begins to get desperate.

There’s no denying Dern is tough and hearty, willing to scrap it out and do anything needed to win. But ultimately she is still a fairly limited fighter. Once again, she will be forced to look for takedowns early and often or get dragged into the deep waters of a disadvantaged striking contest.

Both women are physically capable and Dern has never had an easy time making the strawweight limit, but Ribas is still the stronger of the two. Arguably the more well-versed and skilled takedown specialist, Ribas also stands to hold up well to Dern’s attempts.

A win for Dern is likely going to be front-loaded, as she will need to establish dominance on the mat quickly before Ribas finds rhythm on the feet. A five round affair, Ribas will surely own the edge down the stretch.

Look for Ribas to pick and poke Dern early while fending off increasingly harsh takedown attempts. Once it becomes clear Dern will take her chances on the feet, expect Ribas to open up and start putting on the punishment. Finishing Dern is no easy task and Ribas is not one to force an end, but she should able to escape the tensest moments and grab another win.

38-years-old and riding a two-fight skid, Santiago Ponzinibbio has his back to the wall this weekend in a critical co-main event appearance. Since his debut in 2013, Ponzinibbio has been good for entertaining and high-skill affairs. Recent years have seen his success dip, with a mere 1-4 record dating back to 2021.

Ponzinibbio is still a skilled striker with legitimate punching power, but his own durability and consistency has faltered to a noticeable degree. His most recent appearance – against 40-year-old Muslim Salikhov – did little to stoke the flames of optimism as he ultimately fell short via split decision.

At this point in his career it’s worth talking most about what he can do today. Ponzinibbio is still willing to stand toe-to-toe and challenge fighters on the feet but his defense and output have waned dramatically.

It isn’t easy to finish Ponzinibbio but he is absorbing more damage by the fight and seems less capable of keeping up with the onslaughts. When he lets his offense go, it becomes clear why he was so successful in the past, but he cannot maintain the level of efficiency he really needs to.

The underdog in this contest, Carlston Harris still has a lot to prove even as he takes on an aging veteran. The UFC’s first representative from Guyana, Harris was stomped out in only one round to begin and end his 2024.

Though last calendar year was a disappointment, Harris has still found overall success in the UFC with a chaotic, yet effective style. Defensive liable as he is, Harris is lanky and owns legitimate stopping power. A willingness to wing awkward and sometimes messy offense at his opponent has yielded impressive results, even if the methods look a bit wonky.

While Harris deserves credit for what he can pull off as a fighter seemingly led often by intuition and athleticism, there is little doubt Ponzinibbio would dominate the match-up in his prime. But as aforementioned, Ponzinibbio’s prime has come and gone, leaving us with an intriguing and winnable match-up for the underdog.

Harris is the less skilled fighter as a whole but owns a level of physicality and tenacity Ponzinibbio is poorly served to handle in 2025. With an ever-expanding offensive skill set and a determination to try those tools out, Harris should find the path to bully his way to a career-best win.

36-years-old and the betting favorite this weekend, Cesar Almeida is looking to stay busy after a UFC debut plus two more across 2024. 2-1 in the organization as the dust settles, Almeida has slightly lowered expectations than this time last year but is still a dangerous and intriguing middleweight striker.

A loss to Roman Kopylov last year stalled momentum and exposed some of Almeida’s weaknesses. Though a vaunted striker with a laundry list of accomplishments in kickboxing, Almeida is still fairly new to his transition to MMA.

Perhaps most importantly, Almeida has showcased improved takedown defense. His awareness to wrestling has greatly improved and as a whole he’s fending off more takedowns than ever. Mind you, he still gets taken down but it simply happens less frequently.

If allowed to keep things on the feet, Almeida is happy to pick his opponents apart and win relatively cleanly. He doesn’t seem to output the same effort – or ability – he did back in his kickboxing prime but there is still something to be said about his deep resume and swath of striking tools.

On the other end of the table is the underdog in this contest, a human spark plug by the name of Abdul Razak Alhassan. Nicknamed “Judo Thunder”, Alhassan almost never utilizes that Judo and instead prefers to wing knockout blows.

Alhassan is 6-6 in the UFC and utterly explosive inside the cage. Recent years have seen him moderate his approach to some degree but ultimately he is temperamentally inclined to charge forward and seek out a finish.

Alhassan’s wrestling has reared its head on occasion – and may be a relevant tool in this match-up – but it is anyone’s guess if he seeks to utilize that weapon this weekend. He simply doesn’t push for takedowns very often, averaging only a handful of attempts in recent years.

If this fight remains on the feet, it could be deceptively slow-paced as both men look to ration their gas tanks and avoid silly mistakes. Volatility is high in this contest and ironically may cause something of an offensive freeze.

Without wrestling to tip the scales and force a disruption in the rhythm, Alhassan will fall behind to the superior striker. Margins may be thin, especially if Almeida becomes hesitant of Alhassan’s power, but I have a difficult time believing Alhassan can string together the offense necessary to beat out Almeida here.

After a rough start to his organizational career, Roman Kopylov has found traction and a string of recent success. Kopylov started off 0-2 in the UFC and had a litany of fights fall through in the process. Since, Kopylov has gone 5-1 and earned himself troves of fans and a couple bonuses in the process.

Though he is deceptively well-rounded, Kopylov is ultimately a striker who elicits the majority of his wins with kickboxing. Lengthy kicks bolster his offerings at range and a willingness to let his hands go give him aid at close range.

As offensively sharp as he is, Kopylov has struggled with his defense both in terms of striking and wrestling. He was ground down by wrestler Anthony Hernandez and has absorbed plenty of strikes on the feet to give concern.

Recently, wrestling has become part of the backup plan for Kopylov. It worked well when faced with vaunted kickboxer Cesar Almeida, but he is unlikely to find any takedowns against American representative Chris Curtis.

A stout boxer with infamously effective hands, Curtis is a stylistically unique bastion in the middleweight division. A plucky striker with a wealth of experience, Curtis is an offensive juggernaut with a true understanding of striking and boxing.

He isn’t one to often utilize kicks, but knees are very much in the arsenal of Curtis. This couples well with his gritty, boxing-focused game as he is able to become a devastating fighter anytime he’s within arm’s length.

Durability and his active defense – both pivotal to his success – help round things out on the feet and keep him in the fight. For all he does well, Curtis is 37-years-old and hasn’t been outputting his absolute best performances.

This weekend is a critical fight for him but one he has a very good chance in. Roman Kopylov is willing and able to stand and take his chances with Curtis here. A kickboxing bout is one both will feel advantageous in; simultaneously, neither is likely to gain traction with wrestling.

It will be a do-or-die fight for both in what could be the Fight of the Night. Both men will have their share of success but it is the consistent offense and high output potential of Chris Curtis that could tip the scales this weekend.

Despite a perceived size difference, Curtis will only be a couple inches shorter and own approximately the same reach. Kicks alone have never been enough to keep Curtis off of people and Kopylov will not be the exception. These two are going to scrap and bring out the best in each other but I believe it will be Curtis who has his hand raised.

13-0 at a mere 23-years-old, Austin Bashi has started his MMA career quickly and continues that trend with a tough pairing in his organizational debut. Bashi is a former Legends of Combat champion and though his regional circuit success isn’t generally notable, he does own a win over legitimate veteran Askar Askar.

The young fighter is a lifetime martial artist, having competed in full contact combat sports even as a youth. Today, he is a wrestling focused fighter who leans heavily on tenacity and determination to succeed.

Bashi is not the most technically savvy wrestler but what he lacks in that area he makes up for with aggression. To this point in his career his gas tank has held up well despite pushing a pretty serious pace in the majority of his bouts.

If he gets his way, Bashi is going forward and diving at your legs. When faced with opponents who can keep him from succeeding on takedowns, he diverts mobile footwork, looking to bait in his foe and charge for another takedown attempt.

His striking is deficient and his head movement is practically nonexistent, but Bashi is clearly developing a functional game with some intelligence behind it. His dedication to that game plan and his composure under pressure will be tested heavily this weekend when he takes on Christian Rodriguez.

A monumental step up in competition, Rodriguez has become something of a prospect killer in the UFC’s featherweight division. Since 2022, Rodriguez spoiled the debut of one man and took away the perfect record of three more prospects.

A wrestler and grappler in his own right, Rodriguez has made a name for outlasting overzealous young wrestlers who charge ahead and find themselves running into a brick wall. Rodriguez is not an impenetrable fighter but he is very well-conditioned, experienced, and skilled in tie-ups.

Even if Rodriguez gets taken down early in this bout, he still has a shot to wear Bashi out and take advantage down the stretch. Not all of Bashi’s bouts have been without turmoil and there are flaws waiting to be exploited in the system of the developing fighter.

Rodriguez, to his credit, has a more fleshed out and battle-tested style. There is no secret to what Bashi will be looking to do in this bout, and Rodriguez has historically matched up well with fighters of this style and temperament.

The trend of utilizing Rodriguez as a prospect litmus test is an increasingly entertaining trend but it could also be a profitable one. Once again the underdog, Rodriguez should be able to stave off at least some of Bashi’s takedowns and force him into a competitive scrap.

A singular fight in 2024 was all Uros Medic needed to get the hype train started and collect another bonus. A first round knockout of Tim Means went a long way to regaining momentum for Medic, who went 1-1 the year prior.

Now looking to get back to an active schedule, Medic is favored this weekend to continue his string of success. 3-1 in his last four outings, Serbia’s Medic has managed to maintain a 100% finish rate, ending the majority of his fights by KO.

A striker by nature, Medic is solid on the feet and has carried his power and durability up the ranks. A comeback win over Matthew Semelsberger proved both points, but Medic does deserve credit for being consistently dangerous.

That said, this weekend still serves as something of a step up for Medic after toppling fighters outside of their prime. In contrast, Punahele Soriano is ready to declare his prime right now lest he be accused of never having one.

Once upon a time (literally once), Soriano competed as a heavyweight in MMA. His last outing was a welterweight debut and a critically successful one, at that. His lone appearance in 2024, Soriano conquered Miguel Baeza in one of the best showings of his career.

That same career has been marked with triumphs and defeats that routinely caused frustration. Soriano is only 32-years-old but fans have spent a long time waiting for him to become the fighter he looks like he could be.

The Hawaiian may have found his new home in the division, as he matches up better physically to the contenders of welterweight. Matching up with a fellow striker, Soriano has a big opportunity to showcase his increasingly diverse skill set in a big fight for his future.

Historically, Soriano has relied more on punching power and infrequent volume to get the job done. At his best, his collegiate wrestling background melds with a more consistent striking game plan to create a cohesive front. While both versions of Soriano have made appearances, if his latest outing is any indication, then we have reason to be optimistic about Soriano.

While he may find some success on the feet, Soriano would be best served to utilize his wrestling and drag Medic into quick sand. Both men have proven capable strikers but only one of them can dominate from top position and that’s the Hawaiian.