UFC 311 Preview & Tips | Sunday 19 January

14 straight wins in the UFC have paved the way to a dominant title reign for Islam Makhachev. He is one success away from breaking the record for Most Consecutive Title Defenses and Most Title Wins in UFC lightweight history.

The prolific native of Dagestan, Russia has come a long way since desperately shooting for takedowns with a wide-eyed look. Composure has been developed and his striking has improved in leaps and bounds.

Makhachev is predictably still a devastatingly effective takedown specialist. Well-versed in wrestling and Sambo as well as having a black belt in Judo, Makhachev’s breadth of techniques to get a fight to the mat is simply staggering.

Makhachev rightfully receives great appreciation for these skills but his ability to consolidate control and dominate from top position is notable. A smothering grappler, Makhachev is not easy to escape from in a way reminiscent of coach and stablemate Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Most notably, I have been impressed with his striking improvements. The only loss of his career was an infamous knockout against Adriano Martins. The road has been long, but Makhachev has ultimately turned into a very competent and functional striker.

The standard array of rear kicks suit the southpaw Makhachev but counter-punching has become a particularly sharp tool of his. He often rips off lead hooks in response to incoming opponents and has become increasingly adept at check hooks and angling out after attacking.

It is surprising to say for those who have followed Makhachev’s career since it’s early days, but he has become capable of winning championship rounds with striking as much as his wrestling. There is something to be said about the threat of either bolstering the other, but Makhachev’s well-rounded game cannot be discounted as he faces down a familiar rival.

Tsarukyan and Makhachev first faced off in 2019 with Makhachev taking the decision win. The result wasn’t unexpected but Tsarukyan’s performance was. The hearty effort cemented him as a future contender and he has largely lived up to, if not exceeded expectations.

Arman Tsarukyan has won his last four in a row and most recently got the split decision verdict against Charles Oliveira. A tense affair, Tsarukyan survived some scares to amass over eight minutes of control time and get his hand raised.

The Armenian fighter has also improved significantly since his last meeting with Makhachev. Also a wrestler by nature, Tsarukyan has gone a long way in putting together a coherent offense on the feet that melds with his greater intent to wrestle.

Tsarukyan has a deep gas tank and is willing to weaponize it, but in the midst of his offensive onslaughts he can become defensively liable. Both on the feet and on the mat, Tsarukyan is prone to bouts of excitement, getting overzealous and losing the position or getting caught out of place.

That isn’t to say he is fragile or easy to topple, but Tsarukyan lands in hot water sometimes due to his eagerness to immediately react. In this particular match-up, he will find a difficult foe to take down or overwhelm on the feet.

Voluminous strikes on the feet will pave the way to takedown attempts for Tsarukyan, but ultimately I believe his best chance at victory is literally held in his hands. Out-wrestling Makhachev, especially over five rounds, is a herculean task Tsarukyan seems unfit for.

As strong and persistent a wrestler as he is, Tsarukyan is just a bit worse there. The same could be said for the striking, where Makhachev’s own striking tendencies look better suited to this match-up.

There is a world in which Tsarukyan finds the right shot on a break and puts Makhachev down, but I don’t foresee it as a likely outcome. Islam Makhachev should be slightly better everywhere. Though I don’t expect dominance from the opening bell, success should compound for Makhachev as the fight goes on. Don’t be surprised if the champion concludes this rivalry with a late finish.

Same Game Multi: Makhachev Wins By KO/TKO or Submission + Makhachev 2+ Takedowns + Makhachev 60+ Significant Strikes

Despite entering this fight as the challenger to the title, Umar Nurmagomedov is the clear betting favorite. Besides a prominent surname fueling the fight, Nurmagomedov is also a perfect 6-0 in the UFC and 17-0 overall.

Nurmagomedov’s resume is not entirely world class but last year was his most impressive as he toppled Bekzat Almakhan and Cory Sandhagen. The latter name and most recent outing was the one that proved Nurmagomedov’s worth; a fairly clean decision win over Sandhagen legitimized his claim to an opportunity.

Nurmagomedov may share a surname with the famous lightweight Khabib, but doesn’t share many stylistic similarities. Nurmagomedov is a strong wrestler with excellent timing on his shots but is arguably more prominently known for his mobile striking and versatile array of kicks.

Umar is not a devastating power puncher but is technically sound, fighting more like a seasoned Muay Thai practitioner than a Russian native out of a wrestling-focused team. As a result, Nurmagomedov has come to possess a unique set of skills for opponent to handle. Capable of winning minutes on the feet or offensive wrestling, Nurmagomedov has never been taken down in the UFC.

That said, Nurmagomedov has only fended off a handful of takedowns in his organizational stint. Unlike most opponents, Merab Dvalishvili will be willing to test both the wrestling and gas tank of the challenger.

Known as “The Machine”, there are seldom fighters who better live up to a moniker. After a stellar 2024 that finally saw his championship dream realized, Dvalishvili is quick to return and continue cementing his legacy.

Rushed into his title defense, Dvalishvili is entering with an unknown-but-apparent injury to his right shin. Despite that, he has undergone a full camp and says he is “ready” to get the job done at UFC 311. There is no doubting his willingness.

A takedown specialist with a seemingly limitless gas tank, Dvalishvili shot for 11 takedowns on Henry Cejudo and 15 on Sean O’Malley. Those numbers are even pale in comparison to the 49 attempts he made on Petr Yan.

The numbers do not lie, and it is a fact of life that Merab Dvalishvili will shoot for takedowns. It’s nearly as assured he will succeed on some of those attempts, particularly in five round affairs where he can greatly exploit his conditioning advantage.

A scraped up shin won’t stop him from diving for takedown after takedown even on a respected wrestler like Nurmagomedov. An Olympic medal in wrestling did not intimidate or stall Dvalishvili, and I am doubtful Nurmagomedov will find success in abundance doing so, either.

Despite the betting odds, Georgia’s Dvalishvili is in another match-up where he can weaponize his gas tank and excellent wrestling ability. Five rounds suit Merab best and unlikely many other recent match-ups, he may have less to fear on the feet.

That is not to disrespect Nurmagomedov’s striking ability, but rather put him a category below men like O’Malley and Yan – both of whom Dvalishvili chased down and overwhelmed.

There is much ado about Nurmagomedov’s wrestling ability and flawless takedown defense to this point, but he has never been shot on a dozen times in a single fight. Not to mention the volume and pressure Dvalishvili is willing to output on the feet.

A great surname is doing a lot of lifting for the respect Nurmagomedov is receiving in this contest. He is a legitimate contender, but even with as many circumstances in his favor as he could get, I doubt his ability to fend off the Georgian.

Dvalishvili is walking quicksand, slowly overwhelming his foe until they’ve sunken into a miserable affair. Nurmagomedov may find some early success with mobility and a dedication to not hitting his back, but I don’t think he can keep it up.

#3 ranked Jamahal Hill once held the UFC’s light heavyweight title and technically, nobody ever took that belt from him. After a win over Glover Teixeira in in 2023, an injury struck and Hill opted to vacate the title rather than hold up the division. Hill’s act of kindness to the division was not repaid.

Hill made his return nine months ago in an immediate title shot. Despite battling vaunted striker Alex Pereira, Hill made no reservations about his intent to beat Pereira at his own game.

Unsurprisingly, this did not go well for Hill. Finished after three minutes of action, Hill has been publicly talkative but needs a win this weekend to cement his continued contention. Hill is a minor betting favorite to do so but will find no easy victory in what is likely to be another striking war.

Though he often plays the role of hammer with heavy hands and the willingness to throw them, Hill has also endured his fair share of punishment. Four rounds with Thiago Santos and a full five with Teixeira proved his mettle.

The hearty American is defensively liable and quite frankly possesses awful footwork; despite that, he’s willing to let his hands go from any angle. This awkwardness and power combine for something of a unique, albeit volatile, threat.

Speaking of volatility, Jiri Prochazka is in similarly desperate need of victory this weekend. Though a mere 32-years-old, Prochazka has had a fairly long and arduous career. Much like his foe at UFC 311, Prochazka also held the light heavyweight title at one point, only to vacate it due to injury before getting a chance to defend.

1-2 in his last three outings with the lone victory being a comeback, Prochazka has done little to inspire confidence in his future potential. An offensive juggernaut who brought a fan following into his UFC debut, he has only grown into a bigger and more prolific star thanks to his wild aggression and vintage savagery.

A follower of some sort of Bushido code, perhaps a Samurai, but unquestionably an offense-minded fighter seeking a fighter. Prochazka is competent on the mat in a similar way to Jamahal Hill, but neither man will have grappling on their mind this weekend.

In what should be a striking affair until someone drops, Hill may actually be the one to match up quite well with the style of Prochazka. Though both have suffered recent stoppage losses – largely to the same man – Hill has appeared the more lively of the two.

After so many years in the big leagues, one would have expected Prochazka to develop in some notable way. This has not been the case. Miles ticking onto his odometer are doing no favors and his utterly absent defense is a serious demerit here.

Hill, in shape and ready to prove a point, should be the faster, sharper fighter. Once again, his athleticism and power should tip the scales in what could be a knockdown, drag-out fight for the fans.

Four wins and three finishes have cemented an unlikely but impressive run for Renato Moicano. Best known as “Money” Moicano, the Brazilian has found his footing at lightweight. Unbeaten in the division since 2020, Moicano’s most recent year was the best of his career. He conquered Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Benoit Saint-Denis all in a seven-month span.

There is no understating the development Moicano has undergone in the last few years. No longer a drained featherweight who struggled to hold up, Moicano has newfound strength and resilience in the lightweight division.

While he is still prone to getting stunned, Moicano recovers better and comes back harder after getting rocked. In the past, he simply lacked the versatility or durability to pull himself back into the bout. At this point, he is fully capable of threatening a finish anywhere.

Most notably, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and grappling standout has developed a very functional and technically solid striking game. Moicano’s jab has always been an underrated asset for him but recent years have showcased his increased power and striking consistency.

Though the same age as his opponent, Beneil Dariush enters this weekend not only as the betting underdog but perceived as the older fighter. Dariush rides a two-fight skid into UFC 311, with both bouts ending in the first round.

Dariush has now been finished five times, with two of those coming in a six-month stretch. Though it may not automatically signal catastrophe in many fighters, Dariush’s durability has appeared markedly diminished in recent outings.

At his best, Dariush is a tricky southpaw with absolutely elite grappling and underrated punching power. Deceptive in his timing and angles, Dariush is competent everywhere and a great example of a veteran who continued to evolve alongside the sport.

But at this point, it doesn’t seem that Dariush is in his prime. How far removed he is from it may be proven at UFC 311. Renato Moicano will find clear advantages on the feet and as the technically superior fighter, should have no trouble winning minutes there.

Dariush’s punching power is often undersold but that may be his most viable path to victory. Dariush is unlikely to wear out Moicano over the course of a grueling and extended bout. Consistently beating Moicano to the punch on the feet is similarly improbable.

When Moicano’s impressive rise is compared to Dariush’s recent slip, it is easy to envision another triumph for the Brazilian.

A former two-division champion in ONE FC, Reinier de Ridder made his highly anticipated UFC debut only two months ago. Submitting longtime veteran and submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert went a decent way in proving his impressive grappling skills.

de Ridder owns an extraordinary submission rate and despite 20 professional MMA bouts to his name, he still stays very true to his roots. Perhaps too true, as he has failed to develop a particularly threatening game anywhere outside of grappling.

The 6’4” (193cm) de Ridder typically owns a serious size advantage over his opponents, particularly at middleweight, but is no expert in utilizing it. Arguably the most important accompanying component to his style, de Ridder’s wrestling remains unimpressive at best.

In his most recent outing against Meerschaert, de Ridder went 5 for 13 in takedown attempts. Now, he did end up finishing “GM3” before the final bell but the path was tumultuous.

Historically, de Ridder’s striking has been more of a pitfall than an advantage. The nexus of de Ridder’s success is built around his impressive submission skills, but he has little to offer on the feet – especially in this match-up.

Defensively liable and finished in both losses, de Ridder is a large man who likes to charge forward, bully people down, and dominate on the mat. When he cannot do that, the cracks begin to show and de Ridder’s fragility becomes apparent.

On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Holland is a versatile finisher who can get the job done anywhere. Since making his organizational debut, Holland has competed a staggering 23 times, amassing a 13-9 record (1 No Contest).

The American stays busy in and out of the cage, looking to get things done quickly inside so he can enjoy more time outside. His most recent appearance saw his efforts stalled short when a rib injury forced an end after only one round.

Holland is a fan favorite who has been around the block multiple times at this point. His resume is utterly impressive and there is no denying his knockout ability with any limb from dang near any position.

That is not to suggest Holland is an unbeatable man, as he certainly can be out-wrestled or out-struck by elite practitioners. However, it takes a particularly persistent and dedicated fighter to beat Holland these days; he has found a home in drawing fighters into wars and coming out victorious.

Recent results have not gone Holland’s way but this weekend represents a step down in competition from the usual elites he’s forced to tackle. I am doubtful Holland will fall victim to de Ridder’s wrestling, and getting this fight to the mat may prove extraordinarily difficult for de Ridder.

The longer this goes, the better for Holland. He will have opportunities to hurt de Ridder early but exposing the Dutchman’s meek cardio will do no harm. Look for Holland to pick things up and close the show as de Ridder wilts.