Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is one win away from completing a threepeat. She was in devastating form in her semi final win over Badosa – especially in the second set. Badosa had no answer to the power of Sabalenka and her depth of shot was compromised once she was dragged wide in the court. Swiatek was supposed to give us a dream final but American Madison Keys had other ideas. Despite losing the opening set, Keys took the initiative in the second crushing winner after winner. The third set went down to the wire, and unlike what we have seen from her in the past, Keys was able to produce her best when it mattered. She saved a match point and then broke the Swiatek serve to force a match tiebreaker before coming from 7-5 down to win.
The big question now is can she take her game to another level and beat Sabalenka??? Keys has the power to go toe-to-toe with the world number one but there are two areas where she will be exposed – her 2nd serve and inferior athleticism. Keys won only 33% of 2nd serve points against Swiatek and managed to claim only 38% of those points in her most recent clash against Sabalenka in Beijing last year. Sabalenka was a 6-4 6-3 winner in that match and holds a commanding 4-1 record in the H2H which includes victory in their two prior meetings at Grand Slam level. The other concern for Keys is the manner which she went down in her only other Grand Slam final. It may have been back in 2017 but she fell to bits in a 6-3 6-0 loss. Admittedly she is more experienced today but cannot see her overcoming the power and consistency of Sabalenka.
Tips
Bet: Sabalenka -4.5 ($1.91)
Value: Set 1 Score After 2 games Sabalenka 2-0 ($3.40)