The defending Australian Open champion did not waste any time blasting her way past Sloane Stephens dropping only five games. Two of those were on serve and I don’t see Maneiro replicating that effort here. In her three most recent matches against top-ranked players (Rybakina, Pegula and Krejcikova), she has been able to generate a total of only two breaks of serve with all three matches ending in straight sets. Sabalenka is riding a 6-match win streak and should improve after her opening match. Don’t see Maneiro winning more than 2-3 games.
Osaka was able to serve her way past Garcia in a tight 1st Round match where she won 78% of 1st serve points. Don’t think she gets close to that number her as Muchova is one of the premier return players in women’s tennis. In their most recent meeting at the US Open last year, Muchova broke serve three times to win in straight sets and was able to put pressure on the Osaka 2nd serve. Muchova leads the H2H 2-1 and has won at least 50% of 2nd serve points in all three prior clashes. That tells us that she will win more of the baseline exchanges which will translate to a comfortable win.
A battle against Kenin could have been tricky for Gauff as her fellow American had defeated her at the US Open last year. It was anything but as she continued her brilliant form since Matt Daly joined her coaching ranks. She is playing a more aggressive brand of tennis which includes going for more on serve. The number of double faults has increased but she has dropped serve more than once in only 2 of her last 6 matches and one of those was against Swiatek. The pair met once before at Wimbledon in 2023 with Gauff winning 6-1 6-1. She could barely win a point on serve and it would be fair to assume a similar outcome here. Gauff will be another of the big names to breeze into the 3rd Round.
Making the finals of the Adelaide International was the confidence boost Pegula needed heading into the first Grand Slam of the year and dismantled local teenager Maya Joint in the opening round here. As good as she has been in the last fortnight, this is not a good matchup for her. Mertens leads the H2H 3-0 and has won 6 of the 7 sets they have contested. In their most recent meeting at the 2023 French Open, Pegula won just three games and has won no more than 3 games in 5 of the 6 sets she has lost against the Belgian. It is unbelievable that Mertens is this big an outsider – especially when you consider that she made the final of the Hobart International last week.
Value: Mertens WIN ($3.80)
Sabalenka v Bouzas Maneiro: Under 16.5 games ($1.91)
Muchova v Osaka: Muchova -3.5 ($1.80)
Gauff v Burrage: Gauff -7.5 ($1.83)
Uchijima v Andreeva: Over 17.5 games ($2.05)
Mertens v Pegula: Mertens +4.5 ($1.91)
Siegemund v Zheng: Sets Zheng 2-0
Shnaider v Tomljanovic: Over 20.5 games ($1.91)
Maria v Tauson: Under 20.5 games ($1.80)
Frech v Blinkova: Blinkova WIN ($2.20)
Dart v Vekic: Dart To Win a Set v- YES ($2.15)
Pavlyuchenkova v Potapova: Pavlyuchenkova WIN ($1.85)
Bucsa v Fernandez: Sets Fernandez 2-0 ($1.48)
Badosa v Gibson: Over 18.5 games ($1.91)
Lamens v Bencic: Lamens +4.5 ($1.91)
Samsonova v Danilovic: Under 20.5 games ($1.91)
Niemeier v Kostyuk: Kostyuk WIN ($1.40)