The top seed and two-time defending champ was forced to dig deep in the quarters but managed to come from a break down in the deciding set. She has now made the final four in 8 of the last 9 Grand Slams she has contested and has consistently been able to produce her best when she needs it. Meanwhile, Badosa is contesting her first Grand-Slam semi final after causing a major upset against Coco Gauff. She was able to contain the number of unforced errors and made Gauff go for that little bit extra which caused the American to make an excessive amount of errors. Badosa won and impressive 63% of 2nd serve points but replicating that against Sabalenka will be incredibly difficult. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings between the pair but their battles have been close. Of the last 12 sets they have contested, all but one of them have had 9 or more total games with three sets of 12+ games. Over total games has hit in 4 of Sabalenka’s last 5 matches and with Badosa holding serve at a high rate, can see this match going the distance. Sabalenka will progress to a third consecutive Australian Open final but it will not be easy.
Value: Sets Sabalenka 2-1 ($4.00)
Swiatek quarter final clash against Emma Navarro didn’t last very long as the former world number one dropped a total of only three games. That makes it a total of 7 games conceded across her last 4 matches which highlights just how dominant she has been. Keys is coming off a second consecutive three-set win and deserves credit for playing an attacking brand of tennis when the matches have been in the balance. Her forehand has done the bulk of the damage but it has not been a weapon for her in previous battles against the reigning French Open champion. Swiatek leads the H2H 4-1 and has dropped a total of only 15 games in the four straight sets wins that she has posted in this series. The forecast is for colder weather, and that will favour Swiatek. The biggest concern for Keys is a history of underperforming at this stage at the majors. She has a 1-5 career record in Grand Slam semi final matches while Swiatek is 5-1. Keys has failed to generate a single break of serve in her last four sets against Swiatek which is concerning. That trend could continue as Swiatek leads the tournament with 81% of 1st serve points won and has won almost 60% of 2nd serve points. Another Swiatek masterclass is upcoming.
Value: Set 1 Score After 2 Games Swiatek 2-0 ($2.70)