Medvedev is coming off a terrible opening round performance and it may kick him into gear. There is no way that he should have gone five sets against Samrej and the score in the three sets that he won (6-1, 6-2 and 6-2) reflects that. Expecting him to get back on track here against a teenager who has some glaring weaknesses in his game. Firstly, let it be known that Tien is no slouch. He lost to Fonseca in the Next Gen Finals and has won 4 Challenger Tour events in the last 6 months, not to mention a stack of ITF/Futures tournaments. That said, he had 16 double faults in his opening round match against Carabelli and won only 44% of 2nd serve points. That figure will drop into the 30’s here and that will allow Medvedev to generate multiple breaks of serve per set.
World number one Jannik Sinner had to work hard in his 1st Round match against Jarry but it was not a total surprise and the warmer day conditions helped the big serving Chilean keep things close. He now faces a similar opponent in Schoolkate who plays a more traditional style of tennis. The Aussie had 23 aces in a four set win over Taro Daniel and won 85% of 1st serve points. Not expecting him to replicate those numbers here but if he can make 65% better of 1st serves and win at least 75% of those points, we may even see him take a set. You want to be on the Overs here.
There is no denying the current form of Taylor Fritz but he is way under the odds when you consider that Garin has been ranked in the top 20. Not so long ago, these two held similar rankings and the Chilean has previously beaten Fritz. The American leads the H2H 2-1 which includes victory in their most recent encounter last year. He was a 6-3 6-4 winner on clay in Munich but it is worth noting that Garin had defeated Zverev in the previous round. Fritz has taken his serve to another level in the last 12-18 months but I cannot see him completely dominating a clean ball striker like Garin who makes a living on the baseline. Taking the Overs and rate Garin as good value to win at least one set.
Value: Garin To Win More Than One Set – YES ($7.00)
Many of you would never have heard of the name Boyer before but this is a danger game for De Minaur. Boyer is another emerging American who is starting to climb the rankings. He has won multiple Challenger Tour events in the last few months and cruised through the qualifiers here which included a straight sets win over Eubanks. His last two Challenger Tour wins came on clay so we know he can generate his own power. If given time on the forehand, he will control baseline exchanges and has the power to hit through the Aussie. Nobody runs ball down like De Minaur but he will not look like the dominant player in this match. Am shocked at the price on offer for Boyer and can see him winning multiple sets.
Value: Boyer To Win More Than One Set – YES ($7.50)
Sinner v Schoolkate: Over 26.5 games ($1.73)
Berrettini v Rune: Over 40.5 games ($1.80)
Fritz v Garin: Over 31.5 games ($1.91)
Giron v Etcheverry: Etcheverry WIN ($1.94)
Hurkacz v Kecmanovic: 1st Set Score After 6 games 3-3 ($1.80)
Michelsen v McCabe: Over 33.5 games ($1.91)
Diallo v Khachanov: Khachanov -1.5 Sets ($1.65)
Cerundolo v Diaz Acosta: Cerundolo -4.5 ($1.91)
Boyer v De Minaur: Over 30.5 games ($2.10)
Altmaier v Monfils: Altmaier +6.5 ($1.70)
Shelton v Carreno-Busta: Carreno-Busta +4.5 ($2.00)
Shapovalov v Musetti: Musetti +1.5 ($1.80)
Fonseca v Sonego: Fonseca -1.5 Sets ($1.44)
Marozsan v Tiafoe: Marozsan +3.5 ($1.85)
Moutet v Krueger: Under 37.5 games ($1.95)
Tien v Medvedev: Medvedev -7.5 ($2.20)