Djokovic was able to wind back the clock against Alcaraz and again showed us why he has made Rod Laver Arena his very own stomping ground for almost two decades. Two numbers that stick out from that match – he won 58% of 2nd serve points and was able to break the Alcaraz serve 6 times! His defence was excellent as always but we have seen a more aggressive Novak since Andy Murray joined his corner, especially from the forehand wing. In contrast, Zverev did not play particularly well in his win over American Tommy Paul. The American serve for the first and second sets before eventually losing them in tiebreakers and you can be assured that Djokovic will not be letting Zverev off the look like that. The H2H reads 8-4 in the favour of Djokovic but of most interest is the Serbian’s 3-0 advantage in Grand Slam clashes. Two of those wins, including their only battle at the Australian Open, were in straight sets but the gap between them has gotten smaller in recent years. Zverev has the game to win but we have consistently seen his level waiver at critical stages in the biggest matches. It is impossible to look past the mental strength and belief of Novak on this court.
Value: Sets Djokovic 3-1 ($4.33)
There were no signs of illness from Sinner as he brushed by De Minaur 6-3 6-2 6-1 in his most dominant performance of the tournament. He now takes on American Ben Shelton who has made it his personal mission to end Italian dreams down under. He has already knocked out two Italians (Musetti and Sonego) but had the latter of the two been crisper with his volleys at the net, Shelton would have headed for the exits. Shelton won his first ever meeting against Sinner in 2023 but has not gone close since with the world number one posting four straight sets wins since. Breaking serve will be the biggest hurdle for the American who has been able to break the Sinner serve only 2 times across the last 9 sets they have contested. He has won at least 50% of 2nd serve points in his last two matches but I can assure you that he will be falling short of that number against Sinner – as has been the case in all five previous encounters. Sinner will move one step closer to defending his title.
Value: Sinner -7.5 ($2.45)