The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us with last week’s six winners joined by No.1 seeds Kansas City and Detroit in what shapes as a super weekend of playoff action.
Houston +8.5 (at Kansas City)
Patrick Mahomes covers at just 36% as a favourite of seven or more points since 2020 while CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the number as an underdog. This line is just too big.
Detroit -9.5 (v Washington)
Jared Goff is 34-13-1 against the spread indoors with the Lions while Dan Campbell covers at just under 65%. When Detroit are favoured on extended prep under Campbell, they are 11-2 against the number.
LA Rams +6 (at Philadelphia)
Super Bowl winning QBs cover at 71% in the playoffs including 69% after winning their ring while Sean McVay is 16-7 against the spread on short rest.
Baltimore -1 (at Buffalo)
Lamar Jackson is 26-9 against the spread when an underdog or favoured by less than a field goal while he is 17-3 against the spread when opening as an underdog. He is also 20-5 in night games.
Matt Stafford has been outstanding as an underdog this NFL season, winning all five games as an outsider in betting this year. Teams off three straight strong defensive efforts conceding 13 or fewer are 2-6 in playoff games.
Under 41.5 Houston-Kansas City
Both of these teams are strong defensive outfits with limited offenses and conservative play-calling. With the second half under 28-10 in Chiefs games, the under looks a very strong bet.
Under 55.5 Washington-Detroit
The under is 7-4 in playoff games totalled 55 or more since 2013 while the under is 19-5 when there is a 1 v 6 matchup in the playoffs.
Over 51.5 Baltimore-Buffalo
The over is 14-4 in Bills games this season including an 8-1 record at home. When playing teams who have won 66% or more of games, they are averaging 34.2 points per game across the last two seasons.
We are sticking fat with Bateman, who has served us well. He has been an underrated touchdown scorer this year, scoring 10 times including five in the last five weeks. Zay Flowers’ uncertainty only adds value.
Collins has scored in his last two. Gibbs has nine touchdowns in his last four starts. Williams has put four touchdown games on end. Henry has 20 touchdowns this year and is a must-include.
Gibbs has five-plus games of 30-plus receiving yards. LaPorta has topped 54-plus yards in four of his last five. Terry McLaurin has at least five catches in six of seven.