History
There have been just 16 clashes between Italy and New Zealand in the history of international rugby. The All Blacks have won all 16 of which, including all eight meetings held in Italy. The last game between the two nations came in last year’s Rugby World Cup which New Zealand won 96-17, and just two years prior was the most recent game between the two held in Italy—New Zealand won that match 47-9. The closest that the Azzurri have come to beating the All Blacks was at the 1991 RWC, with the score finishing at 31-21 in NZ’s favour.
Form
2024 has been a successful year for Italy, beating Wales and Scotland and tying with France in the Six Nations to finish fifth on the ladder. That strong form didn’t necessarily carry through to their July internationals, as they were upset by Samoa 25-33 before picking up wins over Tonga and Japan. Since then, the Azzurri got their 2024/25 international season off to a mixed start, getting thumped by Argentina 18-50 in Udine a fortnight ago before sneaking to a 20-17 victory over Georgia last week.
New Zealand suffered their first defeat of their Northern Tour last week, losing to France 29-30. It was a classic back-and-forth Test match, with the All Blacks running out to an early lead before France clawed their way back in front and held off the visitors in the final minutes. There were some crucial errors committed by the All Blacks that they will have been ruing this week, but the first start back from injury for Cam Roigard proved that he is indeed the #1 halfback in the country and Peter Lakai didn’t look out of his depth at the elite level. With wins over Japan, England and Ireland in the three weeks prior, the AB’s take strong form into Sunday morning’s game.
Teams
Italy: 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 3 Marco Riccioni, 4 Federico Ruzza, 5 Dino Lamb, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Ross Vintcent, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 11 Monty Ioane, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 15 Ange Capuozzo. Reserves: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Alessandro Izekor, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Marco Zanon
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 6 Wallace Sititi, 7 Sam Cane, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Mark Tele’a, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungfasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 David Havili, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada has named seven changes to the starting XV that beat Georgia last week. Gianmarco Lucchesi and Marco Riccioni come in to start in the front row, while Federico Ruzza replaces Niccolo Cannone at lock. Manuel Zuliani starts at openside, while in the backs, Martin Page-Relo starts at halfback, replacing Alessandro Garbisi who moves to bench. Ange Capuozzo also comes in for Matt Gallagher at fullback.
Scott Robertson has made seven changes from last week’s defeated 23 in Paris, the most notable of which being the return of Ethan de Groot. The big prop has struggled to get a look in after an “indiscretion” earlier on the tour, but a neck niggle to Tamaiti Williams sees de Groot start. Patrick Tuipulotu replaces Tupou Vaa’i at lock while Sam Cane returns to the squad, seeing a shuffle in the loosies and Samipeni Finau drop out of the 23. Anton Lienert-Brown starts at second five-eighth in place of Jordie Barrett and Mark Tele’a takes back the right wing jersey from Sevu Reece.
Stats That Matter
- Italy have never beaten New Zealand in international rugby
- The average scoreline between these teams is 60-10
- New Zealand are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- The over is 6-1 in Italy’s last seven home games
The Verdict
There were a few pivotal moments in last week’s game that the All Blacks could not get right, leading to a tough that would have been a tough pill to swallow, but they will be looking to end their 2024 on a high on Sunday morning. Scott Robertson’s first season at the helm has been tumultuous but signs are increasingly positive, with the All Blacks’ trademark flair and opportunistic traits having returned to the team. While late-game poise has remained a work in progress, the class of this group is evident and Italy will be on the receiving end of that in this clash. The Azzurri have been slow off the mark to start their new international season, getting thumped by Argentina before just squeezing past Georgia, giving them a far-from-ideal form line heading into this clash. With Razor naming a near-full-strength 23 for the ABs, it’s clear that he wants to end his debut season with a big win and I am expecting exactly that for the Kiwis.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 38
Tips
Best: New Zealand -30.5 ($1.87)
Value: New Zealand 31-40 ($4.20)
Anytime Try Scorer: Beauden Barrett