History
New Zealand have enjoyed a dominant past over Ireland, having won 31 of 37 encounters all-time. There have been five Irish wins and one draw in the mix, with two of those wins by Ireland coming at home. The All Blacks snapped their two-game losing run against Ireland in their most recent matchup, winning their Rugby World Cup quarterfinal clash 28-24. Ireland have won the last two home games that they have played against New Zealand.
Form
Ireland’s last hit-out was in their two-game series in South Africa in July, which they split 1-1. A 20-27 defeat in the opening Test was perhaps a flattering scoreline for the visitors, as the Springboks controlled much of the game, but Andy Farrell’s team responded in style in the second game, winning 25-24 in a thriller. Ciarán Frawley was the hero in that game, nailing a last-minute drop goal to secure the win for Ireland. Earlier in the year, Ireland were crowned Six Nations champions, winning four of five games.
New Zealand were somewhat fortunate to get their Spring Tour off to a winning start last week but ultimately emerged victorious at Twickenham, beating England 24-22. George Ford missed a late penalty goal attempt and a drop goal attempt to seal the hosts’ fate, but the All Blacks will have plenty of work-ons at training this week. Ball retention and discipline were issues for NZ, as was their lineout, but their impact when they did have the ball was enough to earn the win. Wallace Sititi was immense once more on attack, carrying frequently and with heart, while Mark Tele’a did well to take his chances and finish with two tries.
Teams
Ireland: 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 James Ryan, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 10 Jack Crowley, 11 James Lowe, 12 Bundee Aki, 13 Garry Ringrose, 14 Mack Hansen, 15 Hugo Keenan. Reserves: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Tom O’Toole, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Ciaran Frawley, 23 Jamie Osborne.
New Zealand: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Asafo Aumua, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett (capt), 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 6 Wallace Sititi, 7 Sam Cane, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 Cortez Ratima, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Mark Tele’a, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 George Bell, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Stephen Perofeta.
Andy Farrell has made six changes to the starting XV that beat South Africa in Ireland’s last match. A hamstring injury to Tadhg Furlong sees Finlay Bealham start at tighthead, Jamison Gibson-Park regains his starting halfback position, as does Bundee Aki at second five-eighth. Hugo Keenan and Mack Hansen rejoin the team at fullback and wing in place of Jamie Osborne and Calvin Nash.
Head knocks suffered by Codie Taylor and Beauden Barrett last week have seen Asafo Aumua and Damian McKenzie join the starting XV in their respective positions. Those changes also see George Bell come onto the bench at reserve hooker and Stephen Perofeta come in at back-up utility.
Stats That Matter
- Ireland are 5-2 ATS in 2024
- Ireland are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games
- The under is 5-1 in Ireland’s last six games
- The average scoreline between these two teams in games played in Ireland is 11-22 in New Zealand’s favour
- Ireland have won the last two games between these teams played at Aviva Stadium
The Verdict
Ireland, the #1 ranked men’s team in the world, will carry a tonne of confidence into the first game of their 2024/25 season, ending their July series in South Africa on a high with a 25-24 victory. Defeating the back-to-back world champions on their home turf is perhaps the biggest challenge in international rugby, and is something that New Zealand failed to do in their two attempts in the Republic just a couple of months ago. That perhaps indicates the talent gap between these two sides at present and while the Irish will feel the loss of Tadhg Furlong, the absences of Codie Taylor and Beauden Barrett are significant for the All Blacks. Both in crucial positions, replacements Asafo Aumua and Damian McKenzie are both electric on their day but have struggled for consistency at the highest level and that will hurt NZ on Saturday morning. It’s a very strong 23 that Andy Farrell has named and the cohesion and quality of the hosts will shine through in this showdown.
The Prediction
Ireland by 7
Tips
Best Bet: Ireland -5.5 ($ 1.87)
Next: Under 48.5 ($1.82)
Value: Power Plays — Either Hooker (Jersey No. 2) 1st Try Scorer & Either Team Win by 1 – 7 ($18)
Anytime Try Scorer: Mack Hansen ($2.20)