History
The history between France and New Zealand is rich and passionate, dating back to their first clash in Paris in 1906. Matches between the two nations weren’t common in the early 20th century, but Les Bleus recorded their first victory in just their third attempt, triumphing 3-0 in 1956. In all, the All Blacks own a 48-14-1 head-to-head advantage over their French foes—a dominant record that has become less dominant in the recent past. France have won the last two games between the two teams, including last year’s Rugby World Cup opener, marking the first time Les Bleus have recorded consecutive wins over the All Blacks since 2009. For games played between the two teams in France, the NZ’s record is 19-8-1, and in Paris 11-3-1.
Form
France have had an up-and-down 2024, which started with a second-place finish in the Six Nations. A loss to Ireland in the opening round and a tie with Italy two weeks later proved to be the results that prevented Les Bleus from repeating their 2022 heroics. Since then, Fabien Galthié sent a second-string squad to Argentina for a two-game series in July, which finished 1-1, before kicking off their 2024/25 season with a 52-12 demolition of Japan in Paris last week. Young gun Louis Bielle-Biarrey was the star of the show with an outstanding display on the left wing, with two tries and a slew of thrilling carries, while Antoine Dupont reminded everyone why he’s among the best players in the world with an exciting and efficient performance.
New Zealand have now won five games on the trot after upsetting Ireland 23-13 last week. The win in Dublin broke Ireland’s 19-game unbeaten run at Aviva Stadium and it came in rather dominant fashion, as the All Blacks enjoyed 59% possession, had the upper hand at set piece and pressured the hosts into conceding 13 penalties. Will Jordan had another strong game from the back and Asafo Aumua made a real impact while starting for the injured Codie Taylor, with some bustling runs and some trademark hits on defence. Last week’s win followed a thrilling victory over England last week and a cruisy win against Japan the week prior.
Teams
France: 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 3 Tevita Tatafu, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 6 Paul Boudehent, 7 Alexandre Roumat, 8 Gregory Aldritt, 9 Antoine Dupont, 10 Thomas Ramos, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 12 Yoram Moefana, 13 Gael Fickou, 14 Gabin Villiere, 15 Romain Buros. Reserves: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Mickaël Guillard, 21 Charles Ollivon, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Émilien Gailleton.
New Zealand: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 6 Samipeni Finau, 7 Ardie Savea, 8 Wallace Sititi, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Bordeaux fullback Romain Buros will make his France debut at fullback in one of four starting XV changes from Fabien Galthié. Gabin Villiere comes in for Damian Penaud on the right wing, while Émilien Gailleton has been benched in favour of Gaël Fickou at centre.In the pack, Paul Boudehent will start at blindside, replacing François Cros, while Romain Taofifenua, Charles Ollivon and Nolann Le Garrec are the new faces on the bench.
An injury to Sam Cane has seen Ardie Savea shift to openside and Samipeni Finau come off the bench to start at blindside, opening a spot in the reserves for Peter Lakai. Codie Taylor and Beauden Barrett return from injury, seeing Asafo Aumua and Damian McKenzie move to the bench, while Cam Roigard has taken Cortez Ratima’s spot at starting halfback. Sevu Reece has also replaced Mark Tele’a on the right wing.
Stats That Matter
France are 3-5 ATS in 2024
The under is 4-2 in New Zealand’s last six games
The All Blacks have covered three of their last four games
France have won the last two games between these two teams
The average score between these two teams in France is 14-24 in New Zealand’s favour
The Verdict
New Zealand’s northern tour has been nothing but a success so far, with two big scalps in the past fortnight. However, perhaps the biggest test comes on Sunday morning in Paris against a dogged French team. Les Bleus have been steady risers over the past few years and while they failed to fire when it mattered most in their home Rugby World Cup last year, that’s not to say that they don’t have the class to be the world’s best. However, the same goes for this All Blacks team, who have steadily improved over the past 18 months and are now looking especially comfortable heading into their 13th game under Scott Robertson. Last week’s victory in Dublin was an indication of just how far they have come, controlling the majority of the game at the home ground of the world #1 team, and that sets a great platform for this week’s showdown. The return of Beauden Barrett cannot be understated for the ABs and with Cam Roigard starting at halfback, after being highly impressive since his return from injury, expect a dangerous All Blacks to turn up in Paris and steal a win from their French foes.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 5
Tips
Best Bet: New Zealand ($1.92)
Value Bet: New Zealand 1-12 ($2.80)
Anytime Try Scorer: Will Jordan ($2.45)